Are hostile takeovers different?
AUTHORS: Rosengren, Eric S.; Browne, Lynn E.
Foreign stock holdings: the role of information
The household finance literature documents a large fraction of the population not participating in stock markets. It is also puzzling that a much greater share of households do not participate in foreign stock markets. Recent empirical evidence points towards the role of information in determining agents' portfolio choices. I test these results into a model that incorporates information on agents' portfolio allocation decision. In the model, consumers can invest in both domestic and foreign stocks and to update their information set, agents have to pay a cost implying that consumers update their portfolio only infrequently. In addition, to account for the initial costs of acquiring information about stock investments, a version of the model also features an entry-cost to be paid at the first period by agents that decide to enter stock market. Agents that invest in foreign stocks are more attentive, updating their portfolio more frequently. After calibrating the model to match returns and volatility for the U.S. economy and dierent foreign stock investments, I obtain that the minimum entry cost necessary to drive households completely out of stock markets is large (and in line with the equity premium puzzle literature). However, once agents already invest in domestic stock markets, the minimum cost that would drive investors out of foreign stocks market is much smaller. The size of the latter minimum entry cost depends on model parameters assumptions, and small variations on risk aversion and uncertaintly about foreign asset returns can bring this entry cost down enough to justify the substancial non-participation in foreign stock markets.
AUTHORS: Nechio, Fernanda
Common sense about executive stock options
AUTHORS: Bliss, Robert R.
Belief dispersion among household investors and stock trading volume
We study the effects of belief dispersion on stock trading volume. Unlike most of the existing work on the subject, our paper focuses on how household investors' disagreements on macroeconomic variables influence market-wide trading volume. We show that greater belief dispersion among household investors is associated with significantly higher trading volume, even after controlling for the disagreements among professional forecasters. Further, we find that the belief dispersion among household investors who are more likely to own stocks has more pronounced effects on trading volume, suggesting a causal relationship. Finally, we show that greater "belief jumbling," or the dispersion of belief changes over a given period, is also related to more active trading during the same period.
AUTHORS: Li, Dan; Li, Geng
From the horse's mouth: gauging conditional expected stock returns from investor surveys
We use data obtained from a series of Michigan Surveys of Consumer Attitudes to study stock market beliefs and portfolio choices of individual investors. We find that expected returns over the medium- and long-term horizon appear to be extrapolated from past realized returns. The findings also indicate that a more optimistic assessment of macroeconomic conditions coincides with higher expected returns and lower expected volatility, implying strongly procyclical Sharpe ratios. These results are given added credence by the empirical finding that reported portfolio concentrations in equities tend to be higher for respondents who anticipate higher returns and lower uncertainty. Overall, our empirical results lend support to the hypothesis that equity valuations are lower during recessions--and--subsequent returns are higher--because of undue pessimism about future returns, rather than high risk aversion.
AUTHORS: Amromin, Eugene; Sharpe, Steven A.
Investment, idiosyncratic risk, and ownership
High-powered incentives may induce higher managerial effort, but they also expose managers to idiosyncratic risk. If managers are risk averse, they might underinvest when firm-specific uncertainty increases, leading to suboptimal investment decisions from the perspective of well-diversified shareholders. We empirically document that when idiosyncratic risk rises, firm investment falls, and more so when managers own a larger fraction of the firm. This negative effect of managerial risk aversion on investment is mitigated if executives are compensated with options rather than with shares or if institutional investors form a large part of the shareholder base.
AUTHORS: Papanikolaou, Dimitris; Panousi, Vasia
Expectations of risk and return among household investors: Are their Sharpe ratios countercyclical?
Data obtained from special questions on the Michigan Survey of Consumer Attitudes over several years are used to analyze stock market beliefs and portfolio choices of household investors. Consistent with other survey results, expected future returns appear to be extrapolated from past realized returns. The data also indicate that expected risk and return are strongly influenced by economic prospects. When investors believe macroeconomic conditions are more expansionary, they tend to expect both higher returns and lower volatility, which implies that household Sharpe ratios are procyclical. Separately, perceived risk in equity returns is found to be strongly influenced by household investor characteristics, consistent with documented behavioral biases. These expectations reported by respondents are given credence by the finding that the proportion of equity holdings in respondent portfolios tends to be higher for those who report higher expected returns and lower uncertainty. Finally, the finding of procyclical expected returns holds up when we instead condition on conventional business cycle proxies such as the dividend yield and CAY, which yields a stark contrast with the inferences from studies based on actual returns.
AUTHORS: Amromin, Eugene; Sharpe, Steven A.
Do high-tech stocks perform like lottery tickets?
Boomer retirement: headwinds for U.S. equity markets?
Historical data indicate a strong relationship between the age distribution of the U.S. population and stock market performance. A key demographic trend is the aging of the baby boom generation. As they reach retirement age, they are likely to shift from buying stocks to selling their equity holdings to finance retirement. Statistical models suggest that this shift could be a factor holding down equity valuations over the next two decades.
AUTHORS: Liu, Zheng; Spiegel, Mark M.
AUTHORS: Burke, William