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Report
Privatizing social security: the Chilean case
Santamaria, Marco (1991)
Research Paper , Paper 9127

Report
Sustainable social security: four options
Kitao, Sagiri (2011)
This paper presents four policy options to make Social Security sustainable under the coming demographic shift: 1) increase payroll taxes by 6 percentage points, 2) reduce the replacement rates of the benefit formula by one-third, 3) raise the normal retirement age from sixty-six to seventy-three, or 4) means-test the benefits and reduce them one-to-one with income. While all four policies achieve the same goal, their economic outcomes differ significantly. Options 2 and 3 encourage own savings, and capital stock is more than 10 percent higher than in the other two options. The payroll tax ...
Staff Reports , Paper 505

Working Paper
The timing of disability insurance application: a choice-based semiparametric hazard model
Burkhauser, Richard V.; Butler, J. S.; Kim, Yang-Woo (1996)
We use a choice-based subsample of Social Security Disability Insurance applicants from the 1978 Social Security Survey of Disability and Work to test the importance of policy variables on the timing of application for disability insurance benefits following the onset of a work limiting health condition. We correct for choice-based sampling by extending the Manski-Lerman (1977) correction to the likelihood function of our continuous time hazard model defined with semiparametric unmeasured heterogeneity and find that this correction significantly affects the results. We find that economic ...
Working Papers , Paper 1996-005

Discussion Paper
Time inconsistent preferences and Social Security
Imrohoroglu, Ayse; Imrohoroglu, Selahattin; Joines, Douglas H. (2000)
In this paper we examine the role of social security in an economy populated by overlapping generations of individuals with time-inconsistent preferences who face mortality risk, individual income risk, and borrowing constraints. Agents in this economy are heterogeneous with respect to age, employment status, retirement status, hours worked, and asset holdings. We consider two cases of time-inconsistent preferences. First, we model agents as quasi-hyperbolic discounters. They can be sophisticated and play a symmetric Nash game against their future selves; or they can be naive and believe that ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 136

Working Paper
The effects of aging and myopia on the pay-as-you-go social security systems of the G7
Pollard, Patricia S.; Pecchenino, Rowena A. (1999)
The Social Security systems of the G7 countries were established in an era when populations were young and the number of contributors far outweighed the number of beneficiaries. Now, for each beneficiary there are fewer contributors, and this downward trend is projected to accelerate. To evaluate the prospects for these economies we develop an overlapping generations model in which growth is endogenously fueled by individuals' investments in physical and human capital and by the government's investment in human capital via public education expenditures. We analyze individuals' behavior when ...
Working Papers , Paper 1998-023

Working Paper
Optimal response to a transitory demographic shock in Social Security financing
Conesa, Juan Carlos; Garriga, Carlos (2007)
We examine the optimal policy response to a transitory demographic shock that affects negatively the financing of retirement pensions. In contrast to existing literature, we endogenously determine optimal policies rather than exploring implications of exogenous parametric policies. Our approach identifies optimal strategies of the social security administration to guarantee the financial sustainability of existing retirement pensions in a Pareto improving way. Hence, no cohort will pay the cost of the demographic shock. We find that the optimal strategy is based in the following ingredients: ...
Working Papers , Paper 2007-041

Working Paper
Dependent children and aged parents: funding education and social security in an aging economy
Pecchenino, Rowena A.; Pollard, Patricia S. (2000)
In the last few decades in the United States birth rates have declined and longevity has risen while productivity growth has slowed. Given such changes, the increasing burden of funding programs for the elderly is likely to shift resources away from the young and toward the elderly. This paper uses an overlapping generations framework to examine the effects of tax policies on an aging economy. We find that if the quality of the education system is sufficiently high then shifting tax resources away from social security and toward education is both growth and welfare enhancing.
Working Papers , Paper 1995-001

Working Paper
Aging, myopia and the pay-as-you-go public pension systems of the G7: a bright future?
Pollard, Patricia S.; Pecchenino, Rowena A. (2003)
The public pension systems of the G7 countries were established in an era when the number of contributors far outweighed the number of beneficiaries. Now, for each beneficiary there are fewer contributors, and this trend is projected to accelerate. To evaluate the prospects for these economies we develop an overlapping generations model where growth is endogenously fueled by investments in physical and human capital. We analyze individuals' behavior when their expectations over their length of life are rational or myopic and examine whether policies exist that can offset the effects of aging, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2000-015

Working Paper
Optimal fiscal policy in the design of Social Security reforms
Conesa, Juan Carlos; Garriga, Carlos (2007)
The quantitative macroeconomics literature has documented that in the basic Overlapping Generations model a privatization of the social security system, going from a Pay-As-You-Go to a Fully Funded system, generates large long run welfare gains at the cost of substantial welfare losses for initial generations. We propose an alternative to previous literature. In this paper we maximize over the entire policy space, following the optimal fiscal policy approach, rather than comparing alternative policy paths one to one. That is, policies are chosen as part of the optimal design of a social ...
Working Papers , Paper 2007-035

Working Paper
Home production and Social Security reform
Dotsey, Michael; Yang, Fang; Li, Wenli (2012)
This paper incorporates home production into a dynamic general equilibrium model of overlapping generations with endogenous retirement to study Social Security reforms. As such, the model differentiates both consumption goods and labor effort according to their respective roles in home production and market activities. Using a calibrated model, we find that eliminating the current pay-as-you-go Social Security system has important implications for both labor supply and consumption decisions and that these decisions are influenced by the presence of a home production technology. Comparing our ...
Working Papers , Paper 12-5

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