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Random Walk Forecasts of Stationary Processes Have Low Bias
We study the use of a zero mean first difference model to forecast the level of a scalar time series that is stationary in levels. Let bias be the average value of a series of forecast errors. Then the bias of forecasts from a misspecified ARMA model for the first difference of the series will tend to be smaller in magnitude than the bias of forecasts from a correctly specified model for the level of the series. Formally, let P be the number of forecasts. Then the bias from the first difference model has expectation zero and a variance that is O(1/P-squared), while the variance of the bias ...
LINVER: The Linear Version of FRB/US
FRB/US, a large-scale, nonlinear macroeconomic model of the U.S., has been in use at the Federal Reserve Board for 25 years. For nearly as long, the FRB/US “project” has included a linear version of the model known as LINVER. A key reason that LINVER exists is the vast reduction in the computational costs that linearity confers when running experiments requiring large numbers of simulations under the assumption that expectations are model-consistent (MC). The public has been able to download FRB/US simulation code, documentation, and data from the Federal Reserve Board’s website since ...