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Report
Periodic linear-quadratic methods for modeling seasonality
Optimal linear regulator methods are used to represent a class of models of endogenous equilibrium seasonality that has so far received little attention. Seasonal structure is built into these models in either of two equivalent ways: periodically varying the coefficient matrices of a formerly nonseasonal problem or embedding this periodic-coefficient problem in a higher-dimensional sparse system whose time-invariant matrices have a special pattern of zero blocks. The former structure is compact and convenient computationally; the latter can be used to apply familiar convergence results from ...
Working Paper
Federal Reserve policy strategy and interest rate seasonality
During the 1970's short-term interest rates have exhibited extreme variability by recent historical standards.
Working Paper
A neoclassical model of seasonal fluctuations
Journal Article
Inflation, interest rates, and seasonality
Working Paper
Forecasting and seasonal adjustment
An examination of whether one should seasonally adjust data before developing multivariate time series models to provide forecasts.
Journal Article
Seasonal revisions
Journal Article
The problem of seasonally adjusted money
An essay on the effect that seasonal money supply fluctations have on the measurement of M1 and on Federal Reserve money supply management, with a discussion of the X-11 adjustment method and suggestions for improving it.
Journal Article
A problem of seasonal adjustment
A discussion of how new financial instruments have made accurate seasonal adjustment of monetary data more difficult since 1980.
Journal Article
Unemployment seasonals
Working Paper
Interactions between the seasonal and business cycles in production and inventories
This paper shows that in several U.S. manufacturing industries, the seasonal variability of production and inventories varies with the state of the business cycle. We present a simple model which implies that if firms reduce the seasonal variability of their production as the economy strengthens, and they either hold constant or increase the stock of inventories they bring into the high-production seasons of the year, then they must face upward-sloping and convex marginal production cost curves. We conclude that firms in a number of industries face upward-sloping and convex ...