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Working Paper
International economic implications of the end of the Soviet Union

This paper quantifies roughly some potential economic developments in the former Soviet Union (FSU), if substantive economic reforms go forward, and assesses the likely implications of these developments for the rest of the world. It is assumed that a move to world prices for energy and other economic reforms result in a significant increase in FSU net oil exports. This paper develops and analyzes several alternative scenarios, including cases in which the FSU is specified to cooperate with OPEC. The simulations reported in this paper indicate that the FSU countries would be major ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 470

Journal Article
Russian banking

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
The Russian Invasion, Oil and Gasoline Prices, and Recession

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has substantially increased commodity prices, increasing risk to global economic activity.
Economic Synopses , Issue 10 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
A case study of a currency crisis: the Russian default of 1998

This paper uses a currency crisis framework to analyze the currency devaluation and debt default of post-Soviet Russia in August 1998. The authors show that even though the Russian economy recorded positive growth immediately preceding the default, the atmosphere was reflective of an impending crisis. The authors then consider the symptoms of a currency crisis?specifically public and private debt responsibilities, devaluation expectations, and contractionary monetary policy?and show that they were present in Russia at that time. Three generations of currency crisis models are reviewed, ...
Review , Volume 84 , Issue Nov , Pages 7-18

Journal Article
Could Russian have learned from China?

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
How the Russia-Ukraine War Helped Fuel Record Fertilizer Prices

The Russia-Ukraine war further tightened the global supply of fertilizer, pushing prices to record highs in March 2022 and causing concern for U.S. farmers.
The Regional Economist

Journal Article
Financial Market Reactions to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

This article analyzes financial market reactions to the Russia-Ukraine war with a focus on the opening weeks. Markets did not completely anticipate the war, and asset price reactions strengthened from the first week—when there were hopes for a quick resolution—to the second week, when prices generally peaked and began to partially revert to prewar values. Exposure to commodity trade and trade with Russia and Ukraine determined market perceptions of the riskiness of equity and foreign exchange assets. Credit default swap prices on sovereign debt and breakeven inflation rates indicate that ...
Review , Volume 104 , Issue 4 , Pages 266-296

Journal Article
Disruptions to Russian Energy Supply Likely to Weigh on European Output

The Russia-Ukraine war and subsequent oil sanctions from European countries have substantially disrupted the supply of Russian oil and gas. We estimate the effects of these disruptions on European output and find that a decline in the Russian oil and gas supply in 2022 could lead to a sizable drop in European output over 2023–24, though the effect differs across countries and sectors .
Economic Bulletin , Issue November 4, 2022 , Pages 4

Journal Article
A Shutoff of Russian Natural Gas

A shutoff of Russian natural gas to Europe will produce heterogenous effects that reflect local winter weather, national dependence on such flows, and policy responses.
Economic Synopses , Issue 29 , Pages 1-2

The Arms Trade and Its Bearing on the Russia-Ukraine War

The arms trade links nations through their security interests, and its current patterns may be complicating a political resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war.
On the Economy


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