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Keywords:Recessions 

Journal Article
Okun’s law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different?

In 1962, Arthur Okun posited an empirical relationship between the change in the unemployment rate and real output growth. Since then, the media, policymakers, pundits, and intermediate macro students have used the so-called Okun?s law as a rule of thumb to relate changes in unemployment to changes in output growth. However, some studies have suggested that the relationship has not been stable over time. Furthermore, the slow recovery of U.S. unemployment relative to output after the Great Recession has led some to question whether Okun?s law has changed permanently. In this light, the ...
Review , Issue Sep , Pages 399-418

Working Paper
Are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries? Results for the G-7 countries

Working Papers , Paper 9509

Speech
How goes the recovery? Challenges for the nation, the region and the Fed

Remarks at the University of Rochester, Rochester, New York.
Speech , Paper 36

Journal Article
The upside of down: postsecondary enrollment in the Great Recession

There have been large increases in two-year, four-year public, and four-year private college enrollment since the start of the Great Recession?slightly larger than expected based on the historical relationships between unemployment and enrollment, and significantly larger than expected if the unemployment rate had remained at 2007 levels. The increased enrollment may lead to a net lifetime benefit of roughly $3.3 billion overall, or $1,500 for each person who enrolled.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 36 , Issue Q IV

Journal Article
Commentary on The recession of 2001 and unemployment insurance financing

Proceedings of a Conference Cosponsored by the Canadian Consulate General in New York, the Centre for the Study of Living Standards, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the New York Association for Business Economics.
Economic Policy Review , Issue Aug , Pages 81-84

Journal Article
Thinking globally: International prospects for 2002

EconSouth , Volume 3 , Issue Q4 , Pages 24-29

Journal Article
Not your father’s recovery?

There has been much talk about a disappointing recovery in the wake of the Great Recession?that this time it is much slower. Comparing features of this recovery to past recoveries casts some doubt on that view. The comparison is made using a scaled-down version of the sophisticated and powerful models that real forecasters actually use. Applying it to real GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and the federal funds rate suggests that the recovery looks consistent with past recoveries?at least so far.
Economic Commentary , Issue Sep

Journal Article
Average-Inflation Targeting and the Effective Lower Bound

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate to essentially zero. It took further measures to support the functioning of financial markets and the flow of credit. Nevertheless, the economic downturn is putting downward pressure on inflation, which had already been running below the Fed’s 2% target for several years. This raises additional concerns that inflation expectations could decline and push inflation down further, ultimately hampering economic activity. A monetary policy framework based on average-inflation targeting could help address these ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 22 , Pages 01

Working Paper
Improving GDP measurement: a measurement-error perspective

We provide a new and superior measure of U.S. GDP, obtained by applying optimal signal-extraction techniques to the (noisy) expenditure-side and income-side estimates. Its properties -- particularly as regards serial correlation -- differ markedly from those of the standard expenditure-side measure and lead to substantially-revised views regarding the properties of GDP.
Working Papers , Paper 13-16

Journal Article
Noteworthy: Texas high tech: feeling the bite of the U.S. recession

Southwest Economy , Issue Nov , Pages 14

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