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Keywords:Recessions 

Speech
The U.S. economic outlook

Remarks at the Washington and Lee University H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economics, Lexington, Virginia.
Speech , Paper 20

Speech
The keys to regional growth, a speech presented to the Summa Hospitals Women's Board, Akron, Ohio, on February 15, 2011

In a speech to the Summa Hospitals Women?s Board in Akron, Ohio, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President and CEO Sandra Pianalto described how the recession and recovery have unfolded in both the U.S. and in her region. She also highlighted the importance of productivity in driving long-term economic growth, and discussed how education and innovation work together to improve our prosperity.
Speech , Paper 34

Journal Article
Nation and southeast set for modest recovery in 2002

EconSouth , Volume 3 , Issue Q4 , Pages 2-7

Journal Article
Texas economy stalled by recession

Southwest Economy , Issue Nov , Pages 1 - 8

Working Paper
Import protection, business cycles, and exchange rates: evidence from the Great Recession

This paper uses highly detailed, quarterly data for five major industrialized economies to estimate the impact of> macroeconomic fluctuations on import protection policies over 1988:Q1?2010:Q4. First, estimates on a pre-Great Recession sample of data provide evidence of two key relationships. We confirm that appreciations in bilateral real exchange rates lead to substantial increases in antidumping and related forms of import protection: e.g., a 4 percent appreciation results in 60?90 percent more products being subject to import protection. We also provide evidence of a previously overlooked ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2011-16

Journal Article
Strengthening the case for the yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions

Past experience has led financial market participants to believe that future interest rates will be closely related to the performance of the economy. If so, the shape of the yield curve ought to summarize the implicit economic forecasts of a broad range of bond traders. Previous research has demonstrated that, relative to carefully tailored forecasting variables such as the index of leading indicators, the yield curve is an excellent predictor of recessions. In this article, Michael Dueker shows that the predictive power of the yield curve does not diminish when examined in the context of ...
Review , Issue Mar , Pages 41-51

Journal Article
1975 - year of economic turmoil

Review , Volume 58 , Issue Jan , Pages 2-8

Briefing
The service sector and the "Great Recession"

The recent recession had a lasting effect on the service sector, both nationally and in the Fifth District. The Fifth District Service Sector Index of Revenues provides valuable insights into the nature of the service sector's downturn, and its links to downturns in other markets. In particular, breaking down the aggregate index into its component industries reveals important differences in each subsector's decline and relative recovery.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue Dec

Working Paper
The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District

This paper examines and compares the recent business cycle experiences of the seven states that lie partly or wholly within the Eighth Federal Reserve District (Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee). For the period surrounding the 1990-91 NBER recession, six of the seven states had recessions that were much shorter than for the country as a whole. For the period surrounding the 2001 NBER recession, four states-Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee-entered and exited recession earlier than the country as a whole. Recessions in the other three states ...
Working Papers , Paper 2005-053

Speech
Challenges facing the U.S. economy and financial system

Remarks at the Economic Club of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 39

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