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When the tide goes out: unemployment insurance trust funds and the Great Recession, lessons for and from New England

The unemployment insurance (UI) program is a federal-state program aiming to: (1) provide temporary, partial compensation for the lost earnings of individuals who become unemployed through no fault of their own and (2) serve as a stabilizer during economic downturns by injecting additional resources into the economy in the form of benefit payments. Each state, plus the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, operates its own UI program within federal guidelines. ; Since the onset of the Great Recession in late 2007, two-thirds of state UI programs depleted their trust funds ...
New England Public Policy Center Research Report , Paper 12-1

Journal Article
Forecasting cyclical turning points: the record in the past three recessions

New England Economic Review , Issue Mar , Pages 31-40

Journal Article
The 1990-91 recession in historical perspective

Nearly a decade has passed since the last U.S. recession ended, and memories of prior recessionary experiences may now have grown dim. The objective of this article is twofold: to provide a concise review of post-World War II recessions, with an eye to identifying their most distinctive features as well as their common elements; and to investigate the extent to which knowledge of a recessionary period provides insight into the subsequent expansion. ; The articles conclusions are necessarily tentative as the date the 1990-91 recession ended had not been officially designated at the time of its ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jan , Pages 3-22

Journal Article
New England job changes during the recession: the role of self-employment

During the recent recession in New England, the number of unincorporated self-employed individuals grew while all the other major classes of workers shrank. A shift into self-employment represents one part of a set of changes in the mix of workers and jobs that reflects the nature of the region's downturn and the economic adjustments it entailed. This article examines patterns of job and income change for different classes of workers in New England from the pre-recession peak year of 1988 to the recession-low year of 1992, with an emphasis on the role of the self-employed. ; Income data ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Sep , Pages 45-60

Journal Article
New data on worker flows during business cycles

The most obvious economic cost of recessions is that workers become involuntarily unemployed. During the average business cycle contraction, total employment declines by about 1.5 percent, the unemployment rate rises by 2.7 percentage points, and it takes almost two years before employment recovers its pre-recession level. Both fiscal policy and monetary policy are concerned with these business cycle deviations of employment from its "full-employment" or "equilibrium" level. The aggregate statistics on employment and unemployment mask economically important information about the ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 49-76

Discussion Paper
Shifting confidence in homeownership: the Great Recession

The authors study the responses to several questions related to real estate that were added to the Michigan Survey of Consumers in July and August 2011. In particular, they asked about attitudes toward renting versus buying a home, about commuting, and about how much to spend on a mortgage. By matching the results to data (at the ZIP-code level) about relative house price declines during the recent crisis, they can study the relationship between the U.S. housing crash and the attitudes of individual consumers. They find that younger respondents are relatively less confident about ...
Public Policy Discussion Paper , Paper 12-4

Working Paper
Financing constraints and unemployment: evidence from the Great Recession

This paper exploits the differential financing needs across industrial sectors and provides strong empirical evidence that financing constraints of small businesses are important in explaining the unemployment dynamics around the Great Recession. In particular, we show that workers in small firms are more likely to become unemployed during the 2007-2009 financial crisis if they work in industries with high external financing needs. According to our estimates, eliminating financial constraints of small firms could add up to 850,000 jobs to the economy. We suggest that policies aimed at making ...
Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers , Paper QAU10-6

Journal Article
When the Economy Goes South

Regional Review , Volume 9 , Issue Q3 , Pages 24-31

Journal Article
Observations: top-heavy job loss

The job downturn has fallen heavily on the highest wage industries.
Regional Review , Issue Q 2 / Q 3

The challenges ahead

Remarks at the Center for the New Economy 2010 Economic Conference, San Juan, Puerto Rico.
Speech , Paper 15



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