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Keywords:Recessions 

Journal Article
Average-Inflation Targeting and the Effective Lower Bound

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate to essentially zero. It took further measures to support the functioning of financial markets and the flow of credit. Nevertheless, the economic downturn is putting downward pressure on inflation, which had already been running below the Fed’s 2% target for several years. This raises additional concerns that inflation expectations could decline and push inflation down further, ultimately hampering economic activity. A monetary policy framework based on average-inflation targeting could help address these ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 22 , Pages 01

Journal Article
Recessions 101: when is a downturn a recession?

Learn about how economists define when we're in a recession, what that means and how the current economic crisis compares with previous ones.
TEN , Issue Spr , Pages 18-21

Journal Article
Texas finding growth in seeming disadvantage

Southwest Economy , Issue May , Pages 10-13

Journal Article
Information technology and growth in the Twelfth District

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Will just-in-time inventory techniques dampen recessions?

Economic Review , Volume 76 , Issue Mar , Pages 21-33

Journal Article
Recovery continues despite new risks, old problems

The Regional Economist , Issue July , Pages 21

Journal Article
Regime-dependent recession forecasts and the 2001 recession

Business recessions are notoriously hard to predict accurately, hence the quip that economists have predicted eight of the last five recessions. This article derives a six-month-ahead recession signal that reduces the number of false signals outside of recession, without impairing the ability to signal the recessions that occur. In terms of predicting the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions out of sample, the new recession signal, like other signals, largely misses the 1990-91 recession with its six-month-ahead forecasts. In contrast, a recession onset in April or May 2001 was predicted six months ...
Review , Volume 84 , Issue Nov , Pages 29-36

Journal Article
Inflation, recession - what's a policymaker to do?

Review , Volume 56 , Issue Nov

Journal Article
The upside of down: postsecondary enrollment in the Great Recession

There have been large increases in two-year, four-year public, and four-year private college enrollment since the start of the Great Recession?slightly larger than expected based on the historical relationships between unemployment and enrollment, and significantly larger than expected if the unemployment rate had remained at 2007 levels. The increased enrollment may lead to a net lifetime benefit of roughly $3.3 billion overall, or $1,500 for each person who enrolled.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 36 , Issue Q IV

Journal Article
Has a recession already started?

FRBSF Economic Letter

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