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Keywords:Recession 

Journal Article
The Lasting Damage from the Financial Crisis to U.S. Productivity

Michael Redmond and Willem Van Zandweghe find that tight credit conditions during the 2007?09 financial crisis dampened productivity, leaving it on a lower trajectory. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
Economic Review , Issue Q I , Pages 39-64

Journal Article
Are we in a recession? The 'anxious index nowcast' knows!

When the economy is in the midst of a recession, even a severe one, it can be quite difficult at first to tell. For example, as the Great Recession took hold in late 2007 and early 2008, uncertainty lingered as to whether the economy had merely slowed or was already contracting. Unfortunately for policymakers, investors, and consumers ? all of whom might have been able to use such information to make better decisions regarding consumption, investment, and saving ? the recession was not officially called until December 2008. Similarly, the four prior recessions were anywhere from five to nine ...
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Dec

Journal Article
The Phillips Curve and the Missing Disinflation from the Great Recession

Although inflation has run somewhat below the Federal Reserve?s 2 percent objective during the ongoing economic expansion, the ?missing disinflation? during the Great Recession presents a much bigger puzzle for economists. During the recession, unemployment rose sharply, but core inflation declined only moderately. As a result, some economists have questioned whether the traditional inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment?known as the Phillips curve?still holds. {{p}} Willem Van Zandweghe estimates a Phillips curve model consistent with microdata on consumer prices. The model ...
Economic Review , Issue Q II , Pages 5-31

Working Paper
Metro Business Cycles

We construct monthly economic activity indices for the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) beginning in 1990. Each index is derived from a dynamic factor model based on twelve underlying variables capturing various aspects of metro area economic activity. To accommodate mixed-frequency data and differences in data-publication lags, we estimate the dynamic factor model using a maximum- likelihood approach that allows for arbitrary patterns of missing data. Our indices highlight important similarities and differences in business cycles across MSAs. While a number of MSAs ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-46

Journal Article
The Changing Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation

The labor force participation rate has become more sensitive to the business cycle.
Economic Review , Issue Q III , Pages 5-34

Journal Article
Stuck in Part-Time Employment

Although the share of workers employed part time for economic reasons has declined, it is unlikely to return to its pre-recession level in the near future.
Macro Bulletin

Discussion Paper
How Did the Great Recession Affect New York State's Public Schools?

Surprisingly, there is no literature on how recessions (including the Great Recession) have affected schools. Perhaps this is because educational funding stresses and decisions vary among and within states, which makes it hard to reach general conclusions. Yet schools play an indispensable role in our society, educating the populace and building the nation’s future. Therefore, it is important to understand how the Great Recession is affecting public spending on schools, the delivery of education services, and student learning. In this post, we analyze one state’s experience, drawing on ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120130

Working Paper
The Great Recession and a Missing Generation of Exporters

The collapse of international trade surrounding the Great Recession has garnered significant attention. This paper studies firm entry and exit in foreign markets and their role in the post-recession recovery of U.S. exports using confidential microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau. We find that incumbent exporters account for the vast majority of the decline in export volumes during the crisis. The recession also induced a missing generation of exporters, with large increases in exits and a substantial decline in entries into foreign markets. New exporters during these years tended to have ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-108

Working Paper
Machine Learning, the Treasury Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting

We use machine learning methods to examine the power of Treasury term spreads and other financial market and macroeconomic variables to forecast US recessions, vis-à-vis probit regression. In particular we propose a novel strategy for conducting cross-validation on classifiers trained with macro/financial panel data of low frequency and compare the results to those obtained from standard k-folds cross-validation. Consistent with the existing literature we find that, in the time series setting, forecast accuracy estimates derived from k-folds are biased optimistically, and cross-validation ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-038

Speech
Should the Fed regularly evaluate its monetary policy framework?: remarks at the Fall 2018 Conference, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Brookings Institution, Washington D.C., September 14, 2018

These slides represent the combined perspectives of President Rosengren and his co-authors, Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, Giovanni P. Olivei, and Geoffrey M. B. Tootell.
Speech

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Recession 28 items

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