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Keywords:Recession 

Speech
Should the Fed regularly evaluate its monetary policy framework?: remarks at the Fall 2018 Conference, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Brookings Institution, Washington D.C., September 14, 2018

These slides represent the combined perspectives of President Rosengren and his co-authors, Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, Giovanni P. Olivei, and Geoffrey M. B. Tootell.
Speech

Discussion Paper
How Did Education Financing in New Jersey’s Abbott Districts Fare during the Great Recession?

In the state of New Jersey, any child between the ages of five and eighteen has the constitutional right to a thorough and efficient education. The state also has one of the country?s most rigid policies regarding a balanced budget. When state and local revenues took a big hit in the most recent recession, officials had to make tough decisions about education spending. In this post, we analyze education financing and spending in two groups of high-poverty districts during the Great Recession and the ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009) federal stimulus period?the Abbott and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130206

Working Paper
Household Financial Distress and the Burden of ‘Aggregate’ Shocks

In this paper we show that household-level financial distress (FD) varies greatly and can increase vulnerability to economic shocks. To do this, we establish three facts: (i) regions in the United States vary significantly in their “FD-intensity,” measured either by how much additional credit households can access or how delinquent they are on debts, (ii) shocks that are typically viewed as “aggregate” in nature hit geographic areas quite differently, and (iii) FD is an economic “pre-existing condition”: the share of an aggregate shock borne by a region is positively correlated ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-13

Report
The Rise of US Earnings Inequality: Does the Cycle Drive the Trend?

We document that declining hours worked are the primary driver of widening inequality in the bottom half of the male labor earnings distribution in the United States over the past 52 years. This decline in hours is heavily concentrated in recessions: hours and earnings at the bottom fall sharply in recessions and do not fully recover in subsequent expansions. Motivated by this evidence, we build a structural model to explore the possibility that recessions cause persistent increases in inequality; that is, that the cycle drives the trend. The model features skill-biased technical change, ...
Staff Report , Paper 604

Journal Article
The Phillips Curve and the Missing Disinflation from the Great Recession

Although inflation has run somewhat below the Federal Reserve?s 2 percent objective during the ongoing economic expansion, the ?missing disinflation? during the Great Recession presents a much bigger puzzle for economists. During the recession, unemployment rose sharply, but core inflation declined only moderately. As a result, some economists have questioned whether the traditional inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment?known as the Phillips curve?still holds. {{p}} Willem Van Zandweghe estimates a Phillips curve model consistent with microdata on consumer prices. The model ...
Economic Review , Issue Q II , Pages 5-31

Working Paper
Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?

It is a remarkable fact about the historical US business cycle that, after unemployment reached its peak in a recession, and a recovery began, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate was stable at around 0.55 percentage points per year. The economy seems to have had an irresistible force toward restoring full employment. There was high variation in monetary and fiscal policy, and in productivity and labor-force growth, but little variation in the rate of decline of unemployment. We explore models of the labor market's self-recovery that imply gradual working off of unemployment ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-20

Journal Article
Are we in a recession? The 'anxious index nowcast' knows!

When the economy is in the midst of a recession, even a severe one, it can be quite difficult at first to tell. For example, as the Great Recession took hold in late 2007 and early 2008, uncertainty lingered as to whether the economy had merely slowed or was already contracting. Unfortunately for policymakers, investors, and consumers ? all of whom might have been able to use such information to make better decisions regarding consumption, investment, and saving ? the recession was not officially called until December 2008. Similarly, the four prior recessions were anywhere from five to nine ...
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Dec

Journal Article
Changing Credit Profile of Consumers: Aging Versus the Business Cycle

The average consumer credit score reached a record high recently. While some commentators attributed this development to the cyclical rebound from the Great Recession, I find that the changing age distribution of credit applicants also played a significant role. Changes in demographics alone can explain 43 percent of the increase in the average score from 1999:Q1 to 2017:Q2.
Macro Bulletin

Working Paper
Household Financial Distress and the Burden of “Aggregate” Shocks

The goal of this paper is to show that household-level financial distress (FD) varies greatly, meaning there is unequal exposure to macroeconomic risk, and that FD can increase macroeconomic vulnerability. To do this, we first establish three facts: (i) regions in the U.S. vary significantly in their "FD-intensity," measured either by how much additional credit households therein can access, or in how delinquent they typically are on debts, (ii) shocks that are typically viewed as "aggregate" in nature hit geographic areas quite differently, and (iii) FD is an economic "preexisting ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-025

Journal Article
Stuck in Part-Time Employment

Although the share of workers employed part time for economic reasons has declined, it is unlikely to return to its pre-recession level in the near future.
Macro Bulletin

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