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Keywords:Recession 

Discussion Paper
Discretionary Services Expenditures in This Business Cycle

The pronounced weakness in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for services has been an unusual feature of the 2007-09 recession and the slow recovery from it. Even in 2010:Q4, when real PCE increased at a relatively robust 4.1 percent annual rate, real PCE on services rose at only a 1.4 percent rate. This weakness has been especially evident in “discretionary” services (to be defined below), which fell more in the recent recession than in previous recessions and since have rebounded more sluggishly. In this post, I suggest that the continued sluggishness in these expenditures lends a ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20110706

Discussion Paper
How Did the Great Recession Affect New York State's Public Schools?

Surprisingly, there is no literature on how recessions (including the Great Recession) have affected schools. Perhaps this is because educational funding stresses and decisions vary among and within states, which makes it hard to reach general conclusions. Yet schools play an indispensable role in our society, educating the populace and building the nation?s future. Therefore, it is important to understand how the Great Recession is affecting public spending on schools, the delivery of education services, and student learning. In this post, we analyze one state?s experience, drawing on our ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120130

Discussion Paper
Tough Decisions, Depleted Revenues: Analysis of New Jersey Education Finances during the Great Recession

Today?s post, which complements Monday?s on New York State, considers the Great Recession?s impact on education funding in New Jersey. Using analysis published in our recent staff report, ?Precarious Slopes? The Great Recession, Federal Stimulus, and New Jersey Schools,? we examine how school finances were affected during the recession and the ARRA federal stimulus period. We find strong evidence of a significant decline?relative to trend?in school revenues and expenditures following the recession as well as key compositional changes that could affect school financing and student learning. ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120201

Discussion Paper
How Did Education Financing in New Jersey’s Abbott Districts Fare during the Great Recession?

In the state of New Jersey, any child between the ages of five and eighteen has the constitutional right to a thorough and efficient education. The state also has one of the country?s most rigid policies regarding a balanced budget. When state and local revenues took a big hit in the most recent recession, officials had to make tough decisions about education spending. In this post, we analyze education financing and spending in two groups of high-poverty districts during the Great Recession and the ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009) federal stimulus period?the Abbott and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130206

Discussion Paper
Waiting for Recovery: New York Schools and the Aftermath of the Great Recession

A key institution that was significantly affected by the Great Recession is the school system, which plays a crucial role in building human capital and shaping the country?s economic future. To prevent major cuts to education, the federal government allocated $100 billion to schools as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), commonly known as the stimulus package. However, the stimulus has wound down while many sectors of the economy are still struggling, leaving state and local governments with budget squeezes. In this post, we present some key findings on how ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130923a

Discussion Paper
Did the Value of a College Degree Decline during the Great Recession?

The authors have previously explored the impact of choices regarding school and major on employment, earnings, and upward economic mobility. In this post they extend their work with an investigation into whether these labor market effects were preserved across the last business cycle: Did students with certain types of educational attainment weather the recession better?
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190710

Working Paper
Metro Business Cycles

We construct monthly economic activity indices for the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) beginning in 1990. Each index is derived from a dynamic factor model based on twelve underlying variables capturing various aspects of metro area economic activity. To accommodate mixed-frequency data and differences in data-publication lags, we estimate the dynamic factor model using a maximum- likelihood approach that allows for arbitrary patterns of missing data. Our indices highlight important similarities and differences in business cycles across MSAs. While a number of MSAs ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-46

Journal Article
Measuring Small Business Financial Health

Throughout the Great Recession and continuing into the recovery, small businesses have played an important role in creating jobs and stabilizing communities. Stories of small business owners overcoming obstacles to provide valuable services and employment are highlighted regularly by pundits, politicians and policymakers alike. However, little attention has focused on the question of what drives the financial health of these often young, often very small businesses.
Profitwise , Issue 2 , Pages 1-9

Working Paper
Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification

The authors demonstrated the use of a Nave Bayes model as a recession forecasting tool. The approach has a close connection to Markov-switching models and logistic regression but also important differences. In contrast to Markov-switching models, Nave Bayes treats National Bureau of Economic Research business cycle turning points as data rather than hidden states to be inferred by the model. Although Nave Bayes and logistic regression are asymptotically equivalent under certain distributional assumptions, the assumptions do not hold for business cycle data.
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 16-6

Journal Article
The Phillips Curve and the Missing Disinflation from the Great Recession

Although inflation has run somewhat below the Federal Reserve?s 2 percent objective during the ongoing economic expansion, the ?missing disinflation? during the Great Recession presents a much bigger puzzle for economists. During the recession, unemployment rose sharply, but core inflation declined only moderately. As a result, some economists have questioned whether the traditional inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment?known as the Phillips curve?still holds. {{p}} Willem Van Zandweghe estimates a Phillips curve model consistent with microdata on consumer prices. The model ...
Economic Review , Issue Q II , Pages 5-31

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