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Keywords:Rational expectations (Economic theory) 

Working Paper
Designing monetary policy under rational expectations: analysis and practical implications

An investigation of the ways in which rational expectations theory fundamentally changes monetary policy analysis and an attempt to generalize the implications of such analysis.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 8612

Journal Article
Expectations, open market operations, and changes in the federal funds rate

Review , Volume 83 , Issue Jul , Pages 33-58

Working Paper
Instability under nominal GDP targeting: the role of expectations

Ball (1997) shows using a small closed economy model that nominal GDP targeting can lead to instability. This paper extends Ball's model to uncover the role inflation expectations play in generating this instability. By changing the process by which inflation expectations are formed in the short-run aggregate supply curve we show that nominal GDP targeting in either level or growth form does not generally result in instability. We further show that in Ball's (1997) case where exact targeting causes instability that moving to inexact targeting restores stability.
Working Paper Series , Paper 2000-09

Working Paper
A model of near-rational exuberance

We study how the use of judgment or "add-factors" in forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in a standard self-referential environment. Local indeterminacy is not a requirement for existence. We construct a simple asset pricing example and find that exuberance equilibria, when they exist, can be extremely volatile relative to fundamental equilibria.
Working Papers , Paper 2007-009

Working Paper
Testing for rational expectations in foreign exchange markets

International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 139

Journal Article
Recent developments in monetary policy analysis: the roles of theory and evidence

Economic Quarterly , Issue Win , Pages 67-96

Monograph
Rational expectations - fresh ideas that challenge some established views of policy making

originally appeared in the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Annual Report, 1977
Monograph

Working Paper
Dynamic factor demand schedules for labor and capital under rational expectations

International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 153

Working Paper
On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates

We document extreme bias and dispersion in the small sample distributions of five standard regression tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates. These biases derive from the extreme persistence in short interest rates. We derive approximate analytic expressions for these biases, and we characterize the small-sample distributions of these test statistics under a simple first-order autoregressive data generating process for the short rate. The biases are also present when the short rate is modeled with a more realistic regime-switching process. The differences ...
Working Paper Series, Issues in Financial Regulation , Paper WP-96-3

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