The causes and consequences of Puerto Rico's declining population
Puerto Rico?s population has been falling for nearly a decade, and the pace of decline has accelerated in recent years. Although a slowdown in the island?s birthrate has contributed to this decline, a surge in the out-migration of its citizens has been a more important factor. The exodus?which includes a large share of younger people?has hastened population aging, but it has not necessarily led to a ?brain drain.? To counter its population loss, Puerto Rico must not only adopt measures to shore up its economy and expand job opportunities, but also enact fiscal reforms and improve the island?s ...
Trends and developments in the economy of Puerto Rico
A two-year-long economic downturn and a persistent income gap with the U.S. mainland contribute to an uncertain outlook for Puerto Rico. Still, the commonwealth possesses a skilled and educated workforce, a favorable business climate, and the benefits of U.S. legal and financial structures - advantages that could encourage the development of new industries and create the potential for sustained growth.
The regional economic outlook
Remarks by William C. Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer, New York, New York.
Opening Remarks at the Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands Philanthropic Efforts Information Session, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
Remarks at the Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands Philanthropic Efforts Information Session, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Population Lost: Puerto Rico's Troubling Out-Migration
For the first time in modern history, Puerto Rico is seeing its population decline. This troubling loss can be traced to an exodus of Puerto Rican citizens to the U.S. mainland, a current that has picked up considerably in recent years as Puerto Rico's economy has deteriorated. Today, fully a third of those born in Puerto Rico now reside on the U.S. mainland. In this post, we examine the recent surge in out-migration that is driving Puerto Rico's population decline (which we delve into in more detail in a recent article in the New York Fed's Current Issues in Economics and Finance series), ...
Some Options for Addressing Puerto Rico’s Fiscal Problems
Puerto Rico?s economic and fiscal challenges have been an important focus of work done here at the New York Fed, resulting in two reports (2012 and 2014), several blog posts and one paper in our Current Issues series in just the last few years. As the Commonwealth?s problems have deepened, the Obama administration and Congress have begun discussing potential approaches to addressing them. In this post, we update our previous estimates of Puerto Rico?s outstanding debt and discuss the effect that various forms of bankruptcy protection might have on the Commonwealth.
Restoring Economic Growth In Puerto Rico: Introduction to the Series
The difficult economic and financial issues facing the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico have remained very much in the news since our post on options for addressing its fiscal problems appeared last fall. That post was itself a follow-up on a series of analyses, starting with a 2012 report that detailed the economic challenges facing the Commonwealth. In 2014, we extended that analysis with an update where we focused more closely on the fiscal challenges facing the Island. As the problems deepened, we have continued to examine important related subjects ranging from positive revisions in ...
Migration in Puerto Rico: Is There a Brain Drain?
Given Puerto Rico’s long-term economic malaise and ongoing fiscal crisis, it is no wonder that out-migration of the Island’s residents has picked up. Over the past five years alone, migration has resulted in a net outflow of almost 300,000 people, a staggering loss. It would make matters worse, however, if Puerto Rico were losing an outsized share of its highest-paid workers. But we find that, if anything, Puerto Rico’s migrants are actually tilted somewhat toward the lower end of the skills and earnings spectrum. Still, such a large outflow of potentially productive workers and ...
Puerto Rico's Shrinking Labor Force Participation
A key concern about Puerto Rico?s prospects is that its labor force participation rate, which is the percentage of the adult population either working or looking for work, has fallen sharply. Looking at the data shows that this decline cannot be attributed to any particular demographic segment. Instead, it is the consequence of an aging population, accelerated by a falling birth rate and outmigration of a relatively young cohort. Expected demographic trends will continue to put downward pressure on the participation rate over the medium term, creating a challenging headwind for the economy to ...
Human Capital and Education in Puerto Rico
Educational attainment is an important element of human capital; however a series of recent papers highlights the crucial role of the quality of education?which determines the skills actually learned, rather than the number of years spent in a classroom?as a main driver of growth. In fact, Hanushek and Woessmann argue that the importance of more appropriately measuring skills is seen in the very tight relationship between quality of skills, or knowledge capital, and growth. Moreover, the researchers state, ?The knowledge capital?growth relationship suggests little mystery for East Asia, Latin ...