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Is the recent productivity boom over?
Productivity growth has been quite strong over the past 2 years, despite a drop in the second quarter of 2010. Many analysts believe that productivity growth must slow sharply in order for the labor market to recover robustly. However, looking at the observable factors underlying recent productivity growth and the patterns of productivity over past recessions and recoveries, a sharp slowdown appears unlikely. ; This Economic Letter examines the risks to this forecast, first looking at how productivity growth has fared in past recessions and recoveries. Then it considers where recent gains ...
How does the border affect productivity? evidence from American and Canadian manufacturing industries
This paper studies how much of productivity fluctuations are industry specific versus how much are country specific. Using data on manufacturing industries in Canada and the United States, the paper shows that the correlation between cross-border pairings of the same industry are more often highly correlated than previously thought. In addition, the paper confirms earlier findings that the similarity of input use can help describe the co-movement of productivity fluctuations across industries.
The outlook for productivity growth: symposium summary
This Economic Letter summarizes several papers presented at the symposium "The Outlook for Future Productivity Growth" hosted November 14, 2008, by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco's Center for the Study of Innovation and Productivity (CSIP). The papers are listed at the end and most are available online.
Lessons from the latest data on U.S. productivity
Productivity growth is carefully scrutinized by macroeconomists because it plays key roles in understanding private savings behaviour, the sources of macroeconomic shocks, the evolution of international competitiveness and the solvency of public pension systems, among other things. However, estimates of recent and expected productivity growth rates suffer from two potential problems: (i) recent estimates of growth trends are imprecise, and (ii) recently published data often undergo important revisions. This paper documents the statistical (un)reliability of several measures of aggregate ...