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Journal Article
Output and inflation: a 100-year perspective
Thalhammer, Jeffrey; Lansing, Kevin J. (1999)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Minding the speed limit
Walsh, Carl E. (2003)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
How fast can the new economy grow?
Rudebusch, Glenn D. (2000)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Why has output become less volatile?
Trehan, Bharat (2005)
Over the past twenty years, output growth in the U.S. has become noticeably less volatile. During that time, the economy has experienced two recessions, compared with four in each of the two preceding twenty year periods. Further, the loss in output during the last two recessions has been smaller than what prior experience would lead one to expect. Moreover, the reduction in output volatility is not confined to business cycle frequencies. ; Does the reduction in volatility represent some kind of fundamental, structural change in the economy? Or is it the result of good policy? Or is it the ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
The binational importance of the maquiladora industry
Vargas, Lucinda (1999-11)
Southwest Economy , Issue Nov , Pages 1-5

Working Paper
Coherent methods of estimating technical progress
Swamy, P. A. V. B.; Lupo, Leonard A.; Sneed, John D. (1989)
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 77

Working Paper
Production and inventory control at the General Motors Corporation during the 1920s and 1930s
Kashyap, Anil K.; Wilcox, David W. (1990)
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 135

Working Paper
Productive capacity, product varieties, and the elasticities approach to the trade balance
Gagnon, Joseph E. (2003)
Most macroeconomic models imply that faster output growth tends to lower a country's trade balance by raising its imports with little change to its exports. Krugman (1989) proposed a model in which countries grow by producing new varieties of goods. In his model, faster-growing countries are able to export these new goods and maintain balanced trade without suffering any deterioration in their terms of trade. This paper analyzes the growth of U.S. imports from different source countries and finds strong support for Krugman's model.
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 781

Working Paper
Returns to scale in U.S. production: estimates and implications
Basu, Susanto; Fernald, John G. (1996)
A typical (roughly) two-digit industry in the United States appears to have constant or slightly decreasing returns to scale. Three puzzles emerge, however. First, estimates tend to rise at higher levels of aggregation. Second, estimates of decreasing returns in many industries contradict evidence of only small economic profits. Third, estimates using value added differ substantially from those using gross output, and appear less robust. These puzzles are inconsistent with a representative firm paradigm, but are consistent with simple stories of aggregation over heterogeneous units. We ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 546

Working Paper
Stock prices and fundamentals in a production economy
Kiley, Michael T. (2000)
This paper compares the predictions for the market value of firms from the Gordon growth model with those from a dynamic general equilibrium model of production. The predictions for movements in the market value of firms in response to a decline in the required return or an increase in the growth rate of the economy are quantitatively and qualitatively different across the models. While previous research has illustrated how a drop in the required return or an increase in the growth rate of the economy can explain the runup in equity values in the 1990s in the Gordon growth model, the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2000-05

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