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Journal Article
The dollar and US manufacturing
Goldberg, Linda S.; Crockett, Keith (1998-12)
U.S. manufacturing industries are becoming increasingly sensitive to changes in the international value of the dollar. A look at recent studies of exchange rate effects on industry performance suggests that the 1997-98 rise in the dollar may significantly reduce U.S. producers' profits and compel firms to scale back their investment in new plants and equipment.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 4 , Issue Dec

Journal Article
The evolving external orientation of manufacturing: a profile of four countries
Campa, Jose Manuel; Goldberg, Linda S. (1997-07)
Using more than two decades of industry data, the authors profile the external orientation of manufacturing industries in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Japan. They use the term "external orientation" to describe the potential exposure of an industry's revenues and costs to world events through exports, imports, and imported inputs. For each major manufacturing industry, the authors provide histories of the share of total revenues earned in foreign markets, the role of imports in domestic consumption, and the costs of imported inputs in total production. In addition, ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 3 , Issue Jul , Pages 53-81

Journal Article
Investing in the front line or the new art of cutting metal
Campbell, John (1992-04)
Regional Review , Issue Spr , Pages 6-12

Report
On the distributional effects of exchange rate fluctuations
Tille, Cedric (2002)
The paper studies the differential impact of exchange rate fluctuations on households in a country. I extend earlier research by relaxing the assumption of complete international sectoral specialization. My setup allows for the presence of several different sectors in a given country, each producing a different type of good. Combined with incomplete asset markets, the sectoral dimension leads to a heterogeneous impact of exchange rate fluctuation within each country. In particular, although a depreciation of a country's currency has an adverse 'beggar-thyself' effect for the country as a ...
Staff Reports , Paper 146

Report
How valuable is exchange rate flexibility? Optimal monetary policy under sectoral shocks
Tille, Cedric (2002)
The paper explores the optimal monetary policy reaction to productivity shocks in an open economy. Whereas earlier studies assume that countries specialize in producing particular goods, I enrich the analysis by allowing for incomplete specialization. I confirm the finding of Obstfeld and Rogoff (2000)--who build on Friedman (1953)--that a flexible exchange rate is highly valuable in delivering the optimal response to country- specific shocks. Its value is, however, much smaller when shocks are sector-specific, because exchange rate fluctuations then lead to misallocations between different ...
Staff Reports , Paper 147

Report
The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade
Yi, Kei-Mu; Hummels, David L.; Ishii, Jun (1999)
Dramatic changes are occurring in the nature of international trade. Production processes increasingly involve a sequential, vertical trading chain stretching across many countries, with each country specializing in particular stages of a good's production sequence. We document a key aspect of these vertical linkages--the use of imported inputs in producing goods that are exported -- which we call vertical specialization. Using input-output tables from the OECD and emerging market countries we estimate that vertical specialization accounts for up to 30 percent of world exports, and has grown ...
Staff Reports , Paper 72

Report
Globalization and the gains from variety
Weinstein, David E.; Broda, Christian (2004)
Since the seminal work of Krugman, product variety has played a central role in models of trade and growth. In spite of the general use of love-of-variety models, there has been no systematic study of how the import of new varieties has contributed to national welfare gains in the United States. In this paper, we show that the unmeasured growth in product variety from U.S. imports has been an important source of gains from trade over the last three decades (1972-2001). Using extremely disaggregated data, we show that the number of imported product varieties has increased by a factor of four. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 180

Report
Inventory dynamics and business cycles: what has changed?
McCarthy, Jonathan; Zakrajsek, Egon (2002)
By historical standards, the U.S. economy has experienced a period of remarkable stability since the mid-1980s. One explanation attributes the diminished variability of economic activity to information-technology-led improvements in inventory management. Our results, however, indicate that the changes in inventory dynamics since the mid-1980s played a reinforcing - rather than a leading - role in the volatility reduction. A decomposition of the reduction in the volatility of manufacturing output shows that it almost entirely reflects a decline in the variance of the growth contribution of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 156

Report
Volatility accounting: a production perspective on increased economic stability
Stiroh, Kevin J. (2006)
This paper examines the declining volatility of U.S. output growth from a production perspective. At the aggregate level, increased output stability reflects decreased volatility in both labor productivity growth and hours growth as well as a significant decline in the correlation. The decline in output volatility can also be traced to less volatile labor input and total factor productivity (TFP) growth and the smaller covariance between them. This relationship suggests that labor market changes such as increased labor market flexibility are an important source of increased output stability. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 245

Report
Elasticities of substitution in real business cycle models with home production
Ludvigson, Sydney; Campbell, John Y. (1997)
Recently, there has been considerable interest in modifying the standard real business cycle model to include home production. In this paper, we construct a simple model of home production that demonstrates the connection between the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES), and the elasticity of substitution between home and market consumption. Understanding this connection is important because there is much larger body of empirical evidence on the size of the IES than there is on the size of the static home-market substitution elasticity. We use this framework to shed light on the ...
Research Paper , Paper 9733

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