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Conference Paper
Price and investment dynamics: theory and plant level data


Working Paper
Explaining asset pricing puzzles associated with the 1987 market crash

The 1987 market crash was associated with a dramatic and permanent steepening of the implied volatility curve for equity index options, despite minimal changes in aggregate consumption. We explain these events within a general equilibrium framework in which expected endowment growth and economic uncertainty are subject to rare jumps. The arrival of a jump triggers the updating of agents' beliefs about the likelihood of future jumps, which produces a market crash and a permanent shift in option prices. Consumption and dividends remain smooth, and the model is consistent with salient features ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2010-10

Journal Article
Commodity prices and PCE inflation

Commodity prices have soared several times in recent years, raising concerns that overall inflation could rise substantially. However, crops, oil, and natural gas make up only about 5% of the cost of U.S. consumer goods and services. Thus, about one percentage point of the 10% cumulative inflation since 2007 reflects price rises in these important commodity categories. When the contribution of these commodities is subtracted from overall inflation, the resulting pattern is remarkably similar to that of core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Why and when do spot prices of crude oil revert to futures price levels?

Recent studies of crude oil price formation emphasize the role of interest rates and convenience yield (the adjusted spot-futures spread), confirming that spot prices mean-revert and normally exceed discounted futures. However, these studies don't explain why such "backwardation" is normal. Also, models derived in these studies typically explain only about 1 percent of daily returns, suggesting other factors are important, too. In this paper, I specify a structural oil-market model that links returns to convenience yield, inventory news, and revisions of expected production cost (growth ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2005-30

Conference Paper
How should monetary policy respond to shocks while maintaining long-run price stability? Conceptual issues (general discussion)

Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Working Paper
Measurement bias in the HICP: what do we know and what do we need to know?

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is the primary measure of inflation in the euro area, and plays a central role in the policy deliberations of the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB defines its Treaty mandate of price stability as "?a year-on-year increase in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the euro area of below 2 percent [?] to be maintained over the medium term." Among the rationales given for defining price stability as prevailing at some positive measured inflation rate is the possibility that the HICP as published incorporates measurement errors of one ...
Working Papers , Paper 0206

Working Paper
Market-based regulation and the informational content of prices

Various laws and policy proposals call for regulators to make use of the information reflected in market prices. We focus on a leading example of such a proposal, namely that bank supervision should make use of the market prices of traded bank securities. We study the theoretical underpinnings of this proposal in light of a key problem: if the regulator uses market prices, prices adjust to reflect this use and potentially become less revealing. We show that the feasibility of this proposal depends critically on the information gap between the market and the regulator. Thus, there is a strong ...
Working Paper , Paper 06-12

Journal Article
Have rising oil prices become a greater threat to price stability?

The effect of oil prices on inflation has varied greatly in the last 50 years. Rising oil prices in the 1970s and early 1980s were associated with high and rising inflation. In the late 1980s and 1990s, however, the inflationary effect moderated. Although the experience of the energy crisis in the 1970s and its excessive and persistent inflation is unlikely to be repeated, mainly because of a better functioning monetary policy framework, Fukac finds recent evidence suggesting that oil prices again are playing a more significant role in inflation. He argues that temporarily accommodative ...
Economic Review , Volume 96 , Issue Q IV , Pages 27-53

Journal Article
Information and prices

Information problems pervade the economy. This Commentary describes the challenges they create and the clever solutions markets find to overcome them.
Economic Commentary , Issue May



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