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Keywords:Prices 

Discussion Paper
Expectationally-driven market volatility: an experimental study

We study the existence and robustness of expectationally-driven price volatility in experimental overlapping generation economies. In the theoretical model under study there exist pure sunspot equilibria which can be learned if agents use some adaptive learning rules. Our data show the existence of expectationally-driven cycles, but only after subjects have been exposed to a sequence of real shocks and learned a real cycle. In this sense, we show evidence of path-dependent price volatility.
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 73

Journal Article
Monetary policy and the price rule: the newest odd couple

Review , Volume 65 , Issue Feb , Pages 5-13

Working Paper
Dollar bloc or dollar block: external currency pricing and the East Asian crisis

This paper provides a quantitative investigation of the East Asian crisis of 1997-99. The two essential features of the crisis that we focus on are a) the crisis was a regional phenomenon; the depth and severity of the crisis was exacerbated by a large decline in regional demand, and b) the practice of setting export goods prices in dollars (which we document empirically) led to a powerful internal propagation effect of the crisis within the region, contributing greatly to the decline in regional trade flows. We construct a model with these two features, and show that it can do a reasonable ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2004-35

Journal Article
Price hedonics: a critical review

This paper was presented at the conference "Economic Statistics: New Needs for the Twenty-First Century," cosponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, and the National Association for Business Economics, July 11, 2002. The main objective of this paper is to make a start in the evaluation of price hedonics. The author describes the hedonic model and reviews its main uses, because the credibility of price hedonics depends in part on the current state of academic research. This is a brief overview. The author then turns to some of the ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Sep , Pages 5-15

Working Paper
Habit formation and the comovement of prices and consumption during exchange-rate based stabilization programs

A defining stylized fact associated with exchange-rate-based (ERB) stabilization programs is that their initial phase is characterized by several years of expansion in private consumption and a gradual appreciation of the real exchange rate. In this paper, I argue that standard optimizing models are unable to account for this empirical regularity, as they predict that, except for the date of announcement of the program, an appreciation of the real exchange rate must necessarily be accompanied by a decline in consumption. I show that this price-consumption problem can be resolved by relaxing ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 598

Working Paper
Recovering risk aversion from options

Cross-sections of option prices embed the risk-neutral probability densities functions (PDFs) for the future values of the underlying asset. Theory suggests that risk-neutral PDFs differ from market expectations due to risk premia. Using a utility function to adjust the risk-neutral PDF to produce subjective PDFs, we can obtain measures of the risk aversion implied in option prices. Using FTSE 100 and S&P 500 options, and both power and exponential utility functions, we show that subjective PDFs accurately forecast the distribution of realizations, while risk-neutral PDFs do not. The ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-01-15

Working Paper
The P-star approach to the link between money and prices

This paper examines several specification errors in the M2-based P* model and develops an M1-based estimate of this model. The apparent statistical significance of M2 is shown to arise from a spurious regression that uses a non-stationary regressor and because the significance test for M2 is biased by including the influence of a lagged dependent variable whose coefficient is not normally distributed. When these problems are addressed, M2 is not statistically significant related to the price level. The M1-based P* model exhibits a significant relationship between M1 and the price level, ...
Working Papers , Paper 1990-008

Working Paper
Aggregate price shocks and financial instability: a historical analysis

This paper presents empirical evidence on the hypothesis that aggregate price disturbances cause or worsen financial distress. We construct two annual indexes of financial conditions for the United States covering 1790-1997, and estimate the effect of aggregate price shocks on each index using a dynamic ordered probit model. We find that price level shocks contributed to financial instability during 1790-1933, and that inflation rate shocks contributed to financial instability during 1980-97. Our research indicates that the size of the aggregate price shocks needed to qualitatively alter ...
Working Papers , Paper 2000-005

Working Paper
In search of real rigidities

The closed and open economy literatures both work on evaluating the role of real rigidities, but in parallel. This paper brings the two literatures together. We use international price data and exchange rate shocks to evaluate the importance of real rigidities in price setting. We show that, consistent with the presence of real rigidities, the response of reset-price inflation to exchange rate shocks exhibits significant persistence. Individual import prices, conditional on changing, respond to exchange rate shocks prior to the last price change. At the same time, aggregate reset-price ...
Working Papers , Paper 10-9

Working Paper
The role of semiconductor inputs in IT hardware price decline: computers vs. communications

Sharp declines in semiconductor prices are largely responsible for observed declines in computer prices. Although communications equipment also has a large semiconductor content, communications equipment prices do not fall nearly as fast as computer prices. This paper partly resolves the puzzle-first noted by Flamm(1989)-by demonstrating that prices for chips used in communications equipment do not fall nearly as fast as prices for those chips used in computers, and those differences are large enough to potentially explain all of the output price differences.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2002-37

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