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Keywords:Phillips curve 

Journal Article
Some recent developments in Phillips curve analysis

An abstract for this article is not available
Economic Review , Volume 64 , Issue Jan , Pages 15-23

Journal Article
The early history of the Phillips curve

The Phillips Curve depicts a relationship between inflation and unemployment in graphical or equation form. In a previous article (see the March /April issue of this Review), Thomas Humphrey catalogued the various formulations of the relationship that have appeared since the publication in 1958 of A. W. Phillips famous article on the subject. In the present article, Humphrey turns to the history of monetary doctrines seeking precursors of the modern formulations in the writings of Phillips forerunners. Humphrey finds an early representation of a Phillips Curve relationship in the writings of ...
Economic Review , Volume 71 , Issue Sep , Pages 17-24

Journal Article
The evolution and policy implications of Phillips curve analysis

The policy implications of the Phillips curve relationship between inflation and unemployment have changed dramatically in the twenty-seven years since A.W. Phillips first identified a negative correlation between money wage changes and joblessness in Great Britain. Originally, Phillips own findings suggested that policymakers could move the economy along his curve, trading off higher inflation for lower unemployment until the best (or least undesirable) attainable combination of both had been reached. Today, such a view is widely discredited. The statistical relation between inflation and ...
Economic Review , Volume 71 , Issue Mar , Pages 3-22

Monograph
Essays on inflation

Monograph

Report
Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve

The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) asserts that inflation depends on expectations of real marginal costs, but empirical research has shown that purely forward-looking versions of the model generate too little inflation persistence. In this paper, we offer a resolution of the persistence problem. We hypothesize that inflation is highly persistent because of drift in trend inflation, a feature that many versions of the NKPC neglect. We derive a version of the NKPC as a log-linear approximation around a time-varying inflation trend and examine whether it explains deviations of inflation ...
Staff Reports , Paper 270

Report
A search for a structural Phillips curve

The foundation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) is a model of price setting with nominal rigidities that implies that the dynamics of inflation are well explained by the evolution of real marginal costs. In this paper, we analyze whether this is a structurally invariant relationship. We first estimate an unrestricted time-series model for inflation, unit labor costs, and other variables, and present evidence that their joint dynamics are well represented by a vector autoregression (VAR) with drifting coefficients and volatilities. We then apply a two-step minimum distance estimator ...
Staff Reports , Paper 203

Journal Article
Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?

This study evaluates the conventional wisdom that modern Phillips curve-based models are useful tools for forecasting inflation. These models are based on the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (the NAIRU). The study compares the accuracy, over the last 15 years, of three sets of inflation forecasts from NAIRU models to the naive forecast that at any date inflation will be the same over the next year as it has been over the last year. The conventional wisdom is wrong; none of the NAIRU forecasts is more accurate than the naive forecast. The likelihood of accurately predicting a ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 25 , Issue Win , Pages 2-11

Working Paper
The Phillips curve and US monetary policy: what the FOMC transcripts tell us

The Phillips curve framework, which includes the output gap and natural rate hypothesis, plays a central role in the canonical macroeconomic model used in analyses of monetary policy. It is now well understood that real-time data must be used to evaluate historical monetary policy. We believe that it is equally important that macroeconomic models used to evaluate historical monetary policy reflect the framework that policymakers used to formulate that policy. To that end, we use the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) transcripts to examine the role that the Phillips curve framework played ...
Working Papers , Paper 2010-017

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