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Keywords:Phillips curve 

Conference Paper
Hysteresis in unemployment

Hysteresis is central to long-run unemployment movements in many countries. This essay addresses two broad issues. The first is whether there is clear evidence of hysteresis effects. To put it differently, can we reject the hypothesis that the NAIRU, and hence the long run behavior of unemployment, is independent of aggregate demand? The second broad issue is the nature of hysteresis. Through what mechanisms do short-run unemployment movements influence the NAIRU? What determines the strength of these effects in different countries and time periods? What are the implications for monetary ...
Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Working Paper
Duration dependence in monetary policy: international evidence

We study the duration of monetary regimes in a simple neo-classical Phillips curve model. The model is an extension of Owyang (2001) and Owyang and Ramey (2001). In this paper, we consider the role of the duration of inflationary regimes on the average inflation rate in an international cross-section. We find that inflationary regimes in certain countries are duration dependent but anti-inflationary regimes are not. In addition, we find that countries with high central banker turnover switch from inflationary to anti-inflationary with lower probability.
Working Papers , Paper 2002-021

Working Paper
Bad Jobs and Low Inflation

We study a model in which firms compete to retain and attract workers searching on the job. A drop in the rate of on-the-job search makes such wage competition less likely, reducing expected labor costs and lowering inflation. This model explains why inflation has remained subdued over the last decade, which is a conundrum for general equilibrium models and Phillips curves. Key to this success is the observed slowdown in the recovery of the employment-to-employment transition rate in the last five years, which is interpreted by the model as a decline in the share of employed workers searching ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2020-09

Journal Article
The inflation-output variability tradeoff and price-level targets

In this article, the authors describe a popular monetary policy framework based on a neoclassical Phillips Curve model. Here, the choice between an inflation target and a price-level target depends on characteristics of real output. If the output gap is relatively persistent, then targeting the price level results in a better set of policy options for the central bank. The authors present evidence from the G-10 countries showing that conventionally measured output gaps are highly persistent. The policy implication of assuming rational expectations and this Phillips Curve model is that central ...
Review , Issue Jan , Pages 23-32

Working Paper
The Role of Expectations in Changed Inflation Dynamics

The Phillips curve has been much flatter in the past twenty years than in the preceding decades. We consider two hypotheses. One is that prices at the microeconomic level are stickier than they used to be---in the context of the canonical Calvo model, firms are adjusting prices less often. The other is that the expectations of firms and households about future inflation are now less well informed by macroeconomic conditions; because expectations are important in the setting of current-period prices, inflation is therefore less sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. To distinguish between our ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-062

Journal Article
Can the Phillips curve help forecast inflation?

FRBSF Economic Letter

Conference Paper
A new method to estimate time variation in the NAIRU - comments

In order to avoid writing a comment that may turn out to be irrelevant the author has therefore decided to comment less directly on what Bill says, and focus instead on the problem that Bill has posed and discuss some thoughts on how to go about modeling it.
Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Working Paper
What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price level targeting?

This paper extends the analysis of price level targeting to a model including the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve. We examine the inflation-output variability tradeoffs implied by optimal inflation and price level rules. In previous work with the Neoclassical Phillips Curve, we found that the choice between inflation targeting and price level targeting depended on the amount of persistence in the output gap. That is, if the output gap was not too persistent, or if lagged output did not enter the aggregate supply function, then inflation targets were preferred to price level targets. When we ...
Working Papers , Paper 1999-021

Journal Article
Introduction to the New Keynesian Phillips curve

In most industrialized economies inflation tends to be pro-cyclical; that is, inflation is high during times of high economic activity. When economic activity is measured by the unemployment rate this statistical relationship is known as the Phillips curve.
Economic Quarterly , Volume 94 , Issue Fall , Pages 301-309

Journal Article
The Phillips curve is alive and well

Rumors of the death of the Phillips curve appear to have been greatly exaggerated. In fact, the Phillips curve is alive and well, and living in a good number of (although certainly not all) widely used macroeconometric models. The author takes the view that the primary reason for its longevity is that the Phillips curve has been an extremely robust empirical relationship, showing little or no sign of instability over the past 35 years.> He examines an array of empiracal evidence and finds that the Phillips curve has exhibited remarkable stability, even across data for what must be the most ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Mar , Pages 41-56

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