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Keywords:Phillips curve 

Journal Article
When can we forecast inflation?

This article reassesses recent work that has challenged the usefulness of inflation forecasts. The authors find that inflation forecasts were informative in 1977-84 and 1993-2000, but less informative in 1985-92. They also find that standard forecasting models, while generally poor at forecasting the magnitude of inflation, are good at forecasting the direction of change of inflation.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 26 , Issue Q I , Pages 32-44

Conference Paper
Phillips curve inflation forecasts

This paper surveys the literature since 1993 on pseudo out-of-sample evaluation of inflation forecasts in the United States and conducts an extensive empirical analysis that recapitulates and clarifies this literature using a consistent data set and methodology. The literature review and empirical results are gloomy and indicate that Phillips curve forecasts (broadly interpreted as forecasts using an activity variable) are better than other multivariate forecasts, but their performance is episodic, sometimes better than and sometimes worse than a good (not nave) univariate benchmark. The ...
Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Working Paper
Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?

This paper reexamines the forecasting ability of Phillips curves from both an unconditional and conditional perspective by applying the method developed by Giacomini and White (2006). We find that forecasts from our Phillips curve models tend to be unconditionally inferior to those from our univariate forecasting models. We also find, however, that conditioning on the state of the economy sometimes does improve the performance of the Phillips curve model in a statistically significant manner. When we do find improvement, it is asymmetric -- Phillips curve forecasts tend to be more accurate ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-16

Essays on inflation


Working Paper
Women and the Phillips curve: do women’s and men’s labor market outcomes differentially affect real wage growth and inflation?

During the economic expansion of the 1990s, the United States enjoyed both low inflation rates and low levels of unemployment. Juhn, Murphy, and Topel (2002) point out that the low unemployment rates for men in the 1990s were accompanied by historically high rates of non-employment suggesting that the 1990s economy was not as strong as the unemployment rate might indicate. We include women in the analysis and examine whether the Phillips curve relationships between real compensation growth, changes in inflation, and labor market slackness are the same for men and women and whether measures of ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-03-22

Journal Article
Some recent developments in Phillips curve analysis

An abstract for this article is not available
Economic Review , Volume 64 , Issue Jan , Pages 15-23

Working Paper
Dynamic specifications in optimizing trend-deviation macro models

As noted in surveys by Goodfriend and King (1997) and Walsh (1998) and exemplified by models analyzed in Taylor (1999), there is encouraging progress in developing optimizing trend-deviation macro models that provide useful insights into the transmission and design of monetary policy. Several controversial features of a minimalist trend-deviation model, with optimizing households, firms, and bond traders, are examined. Dynamic specifications are suggested to improve the data-based realism, while preserving the simplicity, of the minimalist model.
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 01-03

Working Paper
The Role of Expectations in Changed Inflation Dynamics

The Phillips curve has been much flatter in the past twenty years than in the preceding decades. We consider two hypotheses. One is that prices at the microeconomic level are stickier than they used to be---in the context of the canonical Calvo model, firms are adjusting prices less often. The other is that the expectations of firms and households about future inflation are now less well informed by macroeconomic conditions; because expectations are important in the setting of current-period prices, inflation is therefore less sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. To distinguish between our ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-062



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