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Keywords:Phillips curve 

Discussion Paper
The global slack hypothesis

We illustrate the analytical content of the global slack hypothesis in the context of a variant of the widely used New Open-Economy Macro model of Clarida, Gal, and Gertler (2002) under the assumptions of both producer currency pricing and local currency pricing. The model predicts that the Phillips curve for domestic CPI inflation will be flatter under most plausible parameterizations, the more important international trade is to the domestic economy. The model also predicts that foreign output gaps will matter for inflation dynamics, along with the domestic output gap. We also show that the ...
Staff Papers , Issue Sep

Discussion Paper
High Unemployment and Disinflation in the Euro Area Periphery Countries

Economists often model inflation as dependent on inflation expectations and the level of economic slack, with changes in expectations or slack leading to changes in the inflation rate. The global slowdown and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis caused the greatest divergence in unemployment rates among euro area member countries since the monetary union was founded in 1999. The pronounced differences in economic performances of euro area countries since 2008 should have led to significant differences in price behavior. That turned out to be the case, with a strong correlation evident between ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140714a

Journal Article
Nobel views on inflation and unemployment

FRBSF Economic Letter

Conference Paper
On implications of micro price data for macro models - comments

The author discusses: the challenges the wealth of micro-data has posed to macroeconomists and some of the progress made to address these; the fact that an important number of price changes in the data are temporary discounts (sales); and the complicated mapping from the frequency of price adjustment to the degree of monetary non-neutrality in economies that explicitly model price stickiness as arising from menu costs.
Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Journal Article
The early history of the Phillips curve

The Phillips Curve depicts a relationship between inflation and unemployment in graphical or equation form. In a previous article (see the March /April issue of this Review), Thomas Humphrey catalogued the various formulations of the relationship that have appeared since the publication in 1958 of A. W. Phillips famous article on the subject. In the present article, Humphrey turns to the history of monetary doctrines seeking precursors of the modern formulations in the writings of Phillips forerunners. Humphrey finds an early representation of a Phillips Curve relationship in the writings of ...
Economic Review , Volume 71 , Issue Sep , Pages 17-24

Conference Paper
Hysteresis in unemployment

Hysteresis is central to long-run unemployment movements in many countries. This essay addresses two broad issues. The first is whether there is clear evidence of hysteresis effects. To put it differently, can we reject the hypothesis that the NAIRU, and hence the long run behavior of unemployment, is independent of aggregate demand? The second broad issue is the nature of hysteresis. Through what mechanisms do short-run unemployment movements influence the NAIRU? What determines the strength of these effects in different countries and time periods? What are the implications for monetary ...
Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Working Paper
The expectations trap hypothesis

The authors examine the inflation take-off of the early 1970s in terms of the expectations trap hypothesis, according to which fear of violating the public?s inflation expectations pushed the Fed into producing high inflation. This interpretation is compared with the Phillips curve hypothesis, according to which the Fed produced high inflation as the unfortunate byproduct of a conscious decision to jump-start a weak economy. Which hypothesis is more plausible has important implications for what should be done to prevent future inflation flare-ups.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 0004

Conference Paper
Phillips curve inflation forecasts - comments

Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Journal Article
The 1990s inflation puzzle

Southwest Economy , Issue May , Pages 9-14

Working Paper
Anchored Inflation Expectations and the Slope of the Phillips Curve

We estimate a New Keynesian Phillips curve that allows for changes in the degree of anchoring of agents' subjective inflation forecasts. The estimated slope coefficient in U.S. data is stable over the period 1960 to 2019. Out-of-sample forecasts with the model resolve both the "missing disinflation puzzle" during the Great Recession and the "missing inflation puzzle" during the subsequent recovery. Using a simple New Keynesian model, we show that if agents solve a signal extraction problem to disentangle transitory versus permanent shocks to inflation, then an increase in the policy rule ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2019-27



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