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Conference Paper
Hysteresis in unemployment
Ball, Laurence (2008)
Hysteresis is central to long-run unemployment movements in many countries. This essay addresses two broad issues. The first is whether there is clear evidence of hysteresis effects. To put it differently, can we reject the hypothesis that the NAIRU, and hence the long run behavior of unemployment, is independent of aggregate demand? The second broad issue is the nature of hysteresis. Through what mechanisms do short-run unemployment movements influence the NAIRU? What determines the strength of these effects in different countries and time periods? What are the implications for monetary ...
Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Conference Paper
Understanding inflation and the implications for monetary policy: a Phillips curve retrospective
anonymous (2008)
It has been fifty years since A.W. Phillips published the famous article on inflation and unemployment that established the Phillips curve as a central concept in macroeconomic analysis and policymaking. Today, despite ongoing debate about the validity of this approach, many academic economists, policy makers and financial correspondents use Phillips curve concepts in discussing the influence of demand growth on inflation, as well as the relationship between unemployment, wages and prices. But the Phillips curve of today is not that of fifty years ago. And the economy and our understanding of ...
Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Conference Paper
Hysteresis in unemployment - comments
Chari, V. V. (2008)
Larry Ball's paper contains two basic ideas. The first is a second generation Phillips Curve which relates changes in inflation to the level of the unemployment rate and the second is the idea that monetary policy has extremely persistent effects on the unemployment rate, well beyond effects over the business cycle.
Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Journal Article
When can we forecast inflation?
Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Liu, Chin Te; Zhou, Ruilin (2002)
This article reassesses recent work that has challenged the usefulness of inflation forecasts. The authors find that inflation forecasts were informative in 1977-84 and 1993-2000, but less informative in 1985-92. They also find that standard forecasting models, while generally poor at forecasting the magnitude of inflation, are good at forecasting the direction of change of inflation.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 26 , Issue Q I , Pages 32-44

Working Paper
The Wage Curve and the Phillips Curve
Roberts, John M.
Blanchflower and Oswald (1994) have argued that, in regional data, the level of unemployment is related to the level of wages. This result is at variance with the implications of the original Phillips curve for regional data, which would predict that the change in wages ought to be related to the unemployment rate. On the other hand, there is considerable empirical support for the expectations-augmented Phillips curve using macroeconomic data. I resolve this tension by showing that a standard macroeconomic expectations-augmented Phillips curve can be derived from microfoundations that begin ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1997-57

Report
Sectoral inflation and the Phillips curve: what has changed since the Great Recession?
Luengo-Prado, Maria Jose; Rao, Nikhil; Sheremirov, Viacheslav (2017-11-01)
Using sectoral data at a medium level of aggregation, we find that price changes became less responsive to aggregate unemployment around 2009?2010. The slopes of the disaggregated Phillips curves diminished in many sectors, including housing and some services. We also document a decrease in sectoral inflation persistence, suggesting an increase in the weight of the forward-looking inflation expectation component and a decrease in the weight of the backward-looking component.
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 17-5

Journal Article
The Phillips curve is alive and well
Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. (1995-03)
Rumors of the death of the Phillips curve appear to have been greatly exaggerated. In fact, the Phillips curve is alive and well, and living in a good number of (although certainly not all) widely used macroeconometric models. The author takes the view that the primary reason for its longevity is that the Phillips curve has been an extremely robust empirical relationship, showing little or no sign of instability over the past 35 years.> He examines an array of empiracal evidence and finds that the Phillips curve has exhibited remarkable stability, even across data for what must be the most ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Mar , Pages 41-56

Journal Article
Restructuring, the NAIRU, and the Phillips curve
Tootell, Geoffrey M. B. (1994-09)
Recent news stories about corporate downsizing have increased concerns that the labor market is being permanently restructured. The press implicitly, and some economists explicitly, have concluded that this "restructuring" in the labor market has increased the rate of unemployment that is consistent with stable inflation. This rate is known as the NAIRU, the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate below which inflation tends to rise, and above which inflation tends to fall. ; This article examines both macroeconomic data and more disaggregated data in search ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Sep , Pages 31-44

Journal Article
Inside and outside bounds: threshold estimates of the Phillips curve
Barnes, Michelle L.; Olivei, Giovanni P. (2003)
Over the past 30 years, debates about the usefulness of the Phillips curve for explaining inflation have been ongoing. One of the reasons for the recurring debate about the existence of an inflation and unemployment tradeoff is that there have been several instances when large movements in the unemployment rate have elicited little response in the inflation rate. In principle, these episodes of horizontal movement are consistent with a Phillips curve relationship; they just require the curve to shift in the same direction as the unemployment rate. Econometric representations of the Phillips ...
New England Economic Review

Report
Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve
Cogley, Timothy; Sbordone, Argia M. (2006)
The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) asserts that inflation depends on expectations of real marginal costs, but empirical research has shown that purely forward-looking versions of the model generate too little inflation persistence. In this paper, we offer a resolution of the persistence problem. We hypothesize that inflation is highly persistent because of drift in trend inflation, a feature that many versions of the NKPC neglect. We derive a version of the NKPC as a log-linear approximation around a time-varying inflation trend and examine whether it explains deviations of inflation ...
Staff Reports , Paper 270

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