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Keywords:Persian Gulf War, 1991 

Journal Article
The effect of war expenditures on U.S. output

A study of how war-related temporary increases in government expenditures affect real interest rates and output, with particular emphasis on the probable fiscal effects of the Persian Gulf War.
Economic Commentary , Issue Feb

Working Paper
Using options prices to infer PDF'S for asset prices: an application to oil prices during the Gulf crisis

We develop a general method to infer martingale equivalent probability density functions (PDFs) for asset prices using American options prices. The early exercise feature of American options precludes expressing the option price in terms of the PDF of the price of the underlying asset. We derive tight bounds for the option price in terms of the PDF and demonstrate how these bounds, together with observed option prices, can be used to estimate the parameters of the PDF. We infer the distribution for the price of crude oil during the Persian Gulf crisis and find the distribution differs ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 541

Working Paper
War and peace: recovering the market's probability distribution of crude oil futures prices during the Gulf crisis

This paper investigates the market's expectations for oil prices during the Persian Gulf crisis. To do so a general method for using options markets to recover the implied distribution for futures prices is developed. The method applies to a wide class of distributions. In particular, it is not limited to those distributions arising from diffusion or jump-diffusion processes.
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 437

Journal Article
The Gulf War and the U.S. economy

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Statement to Congress, November 28, 1990 (economic implications of developments in the Persian Gulf)

Federal Reserve Bulletin , Issue Jan