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Journal Article
Expected U.S. Macroeconomic Performance during the Pandemic Adjustment Period
Bullard, James B. (2020-03-25)
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard recommends declaring a “National Pandemic Adjustment Period” and discusses three broad goals of macroeconomic policy during this period.
The Regional Economist , Volume 28 , Issue 1

Working Paper
Implications of Student Loan COVID-19 Pandemic Relief Measures for Families with Children
Isen, Adam; Goodman, Sarena; Mezza, Alvaro; Hannon, Simona (2023-05-05)
The initial years of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting economic fallout likely posed particular financial strain on U.S. households with children, who faced income disruptions from widespread jobs and hours cuts in addition to new childcare and instruction demands. One common expense for many such households is their student loan payment. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act included provisions to curb the impacts of these payments, which have been extended several times. These measures were not targeted and thus applied independent of need. This chapter ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-025

Journal Article
Immigration Shortfall May Be a Headwind for Labor Supply
Shampine, Samantha; Cohen, Elior (2022-05-11)
U.S. labor markets are currently experiencing unprecedented labor shortages. Reduced immigration flows in recent years have contributed to these labor supply shortages and tightened labor markets. Industries, occupations, and regions that rely more heavily on foreign workers have been particularly affected.
Economic Bulletin , Issue May 11, 2022 , Pages 4

Briefing
How the COVID-19 Pandemic May Reshape the Digital Payments Landscape
Tran, Thao; Toh, Ying Lei (2020-06-24)
Despite an increase in payments made via online or mobile channels in recent years, many consumers have not yet adopted digital payments. The COVID-19 pandemic may be shifting more consumers toward digital payments, along with industry and legislative initiatives designed to facilitate broader access.
Payments System Research Briefing

Journal Article
What Has Driven the Recent Increase in Retirements?
Nie, Jun; Yang, Shu-Kuei X. (2021-08-11)
During the pandemic, the share of retirees in the U.S. population rose much faster than its normal pace. Typically, an increase in this share is driven by more people transitioning from employment to retirement. However, we show that the recent increase was instead driven by fewer people transitioning from retirement back into employment, likely due to pandemic-related health risks. More retirees may rejoin the workforce as these health risks fade, but the retirement share is unlikely to return to a normal level for some time.
Economic Bulletin , Issue August 11, 2021 , Pages 4

Journal Article
The Global Pandemic and Run on Shadow Banks
Sengupta, Rajdeep (2020-05-11)
In March, the global coronavirus pandemic led to a period of financial stress in which credit conditions tightened at an unprecedented pace. Elements of this stress period can be explained as a classic run on “shadow banks”—nonbank financial institutions that fund long-term assets with short-term debt. Although timely Federal Reserve interventions restored some calm to markets, shadow banks remain vulnerable to future runs because they lack the safeguards available to regulated depository institutions.
Economic Bulletin , Issue May 11, 2020 , Pages 5

Working Paper
Health versus Wealth: On the Distributional Effects of Controlling a Pandemic
Heathcote, Jonathan; Krueger, Dirk; Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor; Glover, Andrew (2020-05-10)
To slow the spread of COVID-19, many countries are shutting down nonessential sectors of the economy. Older individuals have the most to gain from slowing virus diffusion. Younger workers in sectors that are shuttered have the most to lose. In this paper, we build a model in which economic activity and disease progression are jointly determined. Individuals differ by age (young and retired), by sector (basic and luxury), and by health status. Disease transmission occurs in the workplace, in consumption activities, at home, and in hospitals. We study the optimal economic mitigation policy of a ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-03

Journal Article
COVID-19 Stuns U.S. and Tenth District Economies, but Both Show Signs of Stabilization
Brown, Jason; Felix, Alison (2020-06-17)
COVID-19 and attempts to slow its spread have led to a decline in economic activity unprecedented in both severity and speed. Although every part of the United States experienced dramatic decreases in activity, states in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, with lower COVID-19 cases as a percentage of the population, have fared slightly better. More recently, national and regional measures of business and consumer activity have improved but remain well below pre-pandemic levels.
Economic Bulletin

Working Paper
COVID-19: A View from the Labor Market
Bernstein, Joshua; Throckmorton, Nathaniel A.; Richter, Alexander W. (2020-04-17)
This paper examines the response of the U.S. labor market to a large and persistent job separation rate shock, motivated by the ongoing economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. We use nonlinear methods to analytically and numerically characterize the responses of vacancy creation and unemployment. Vacancies decline in response to the shock when firms expect persistent job destruction and the number of unemployed searching for work is low. Quantitatively, under our baseline forecast the unemployment rate peaks at 19.7%, 2 months after the shock, and takes 1 year to return to 5%. Relative to ...
Working Papers , Paper 2010

Journal Article
KC Fed LMCI Suggests Recent Inflation Is Not Due to the Tight Labor Market
Glover, Andrew; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose; Pollard, Emily (2021-10-20)
A tight labor market tends to raise wages and lower unemployment, but an overly tight labor market can cause inflation. Labor market momentum, as measured by the Kansas City Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI), can signal whether the current level of activity in labor markets is inflationary.
Economic Bulletin , Issue October 20, 2021 , Pages 4

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