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Discussion Paper
Fight the Pandemic, Save the Economy: Lessons from the 1918 Flu

The COVID-19 outbreak has sparked urgent questions about the impact of pandemics, and associated countermeasures, on the real economy. Policymakers are in uncharted territory, with little guidance on what the expected economic fallout will be and how the crisis should be managed. In this blog post, we use insights from a recent research paper to discuss two sets of questions. First, what are the real economic effects of a pandemic—and are these effects temporary or persistent? Second, how does the local public health response affect the economic severity of the pandemic? In particular, do ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200327

How Fast Has COVID-19 Been Spreading?

For many countries, the number of COVID-19 cases seems to double every few days.
On the Economy

Expected U.S. Macroeconomic Performance during the Pandemic Adjustment Period

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard recommends declaring a “National Pandemic Adjustment Period” and discusses three broad goals of macroeconomic policy during this period.
On the Economy

Working Paper
COVID-19: A View from the Labor Market

This paper examines the response of the U.S. labor market to a large and persistent job separation rate shock, motivated by the ongoing economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. We use nonlinear methods to analytically and numerically characterize the responses of vacancy creation and unemployment. Vacancies decline in response to the shock when firms expect persistent job destruction and the number of unemployed searching for work is low. Quantitatively, under our baseline forecast the unemployment rate peaks at 19.7%, 2 months after the shock, and takes 1 year to return to 5%. Relative to ...
Working Papers , Paper 2010

Working Paper
Health versus Wealth: On the Distributional Effects of Controlling a Pandemic

To slow the spread of COVID-19, many countries are shutting down nonessential sectors of the economy. Older individuals have the most to gain from slowing virus diffusion. Younger workers in sectors that are shuttered have the most to lose. In this paper, we build a model in which economic activity and disease progression are jointly determined. Individuals differ by age (young and retired), by sector (basic and luxury), and by health status. Disease transmission occurs in the workplace, in consumption activities, at home, and in hospitals. We study the optimal economic mitigation policy of a ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-03

Working Paper
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Demand for Density: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market

Cities are shaped by the strength of agglomeration and dispersion forces. We show that the COVID-19 pandemic has re-introduced disease transmission as a dispersion force in modern cities. We use detailed housing data to study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the location demand for housing. We find that the pandemic has led to a greater decline in the demand for housing in neighborhoods with high population density. We further show that the reduced demand for density is partially driven by the diminished need of living close to jobs that are telework-compatible and the declining value ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024

Journal Article
Assessing Second-Quarter Unemployment amid the Pandemic

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard looks at some unemployment indicators for the second quarter so far and compares them to estimates from a March blog post.
The Regional Economist , Volume 28 , Issue 2

Discussion Paper
Payroll Employment Trends across the Fifth District

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented amount of job loss, yet only a few industries have accounted for a significant portion of it. How do these industry-specific trends in the Fifth District compare to the U.S. overall, and is there any relationship between recent job recovery and states’ phased reopening plans?
Regional Matters

Discussion Paper
The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Fifth District Economy

As the COVID-19 pandemic spreads across the country, Americans are taking measures to distance themselves from their communities, both voluntarily and by mandate. What measures have Fifth District jurisdictions taken and what might this mean for the Fifth District economy?
Regional Matters

Pondering Payments: Challenges of Reaching All Americans

Policy Perspectives


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