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Keywords:Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 

Working Paper
Common fluctuations in OECD budget balances

We analyze comovements in four measures of budget surpluses for 18 OECD countries for 1980-2008 with a dynamic latent factor model. The world factor in national budget surpluses declines substantially in the 1980s, rises throughout much of the 1990s to a peak in 2000, before declining again in the most recent period. This world factor explains a substantial portion of the variability in budget surpluses across countries. World factors in national output gaps, dividend-price ratios, and military spending significantly explain variation in the world budget surplus factor. The significant ...
Working Papers , Paper 2009-055

Working Paper
Supply-side sources of inflation: evidence from OECD countries.

We evaluate the merits of the "supply-side" view under which inflation results from sectoral shocks, and compare it with the "classical" view in which inflation results from aggregate factors such as variations in money growth. Using a panel VAR methodology applied to data for 13 GECD countries, we find support for a multi-shock view of inflation: supply-side shocks are statistically significant determinants of inflation, even after taking into account aggregate demand factors. While oil prices are the dominant supply-side influence, other measures such as the skewness of relative ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 515

Working Paper
International comparisons of fiscal policy: the OECD and the IMF measures of fiscal impulse

Both the OECD and the IMF periodically estimate and publish measures of fiscal impulse to gauge the extent to which fiscal policy in the major industrial countries has become more or less expansive over time. This paper compares these measures analytically and numerically. The paper shows that the OECD and IMF measures of fiscal impulse differ in at least four fundamental ways: (1) the OECD includes fiscal drag under the presumption that it is part of the "structure" of fiscal policy, while the IMF excludes it from its adjusted measure of the budget balance; (2) the OECD and the IMF both ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 274

Working Paper
Trade in ideas: patenting and productivity in the OECD

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 95-9

Journal Article
International business cycles: G7 and OECD countries

The progressive globalization of markets has sparked a worldwide interest in using economic indicators to analyze cyclical fluctuations. Governments and the private sector seeking to conduct their activities in light of both national and international economic conditions could benefit from international indicators that serve as a warning system to detect recessions in major economic partners and in industrialized countries as a whole. ; This article constructs just such a warning system. Using a Markov-switching dynamic factor model with a self-adjusting variable-bandwidth filter, the authors ...
Economic Review , Volume 91 , Issue Q 1 , Pages 43-54

Working Paper
Oil prices and aggregate economic activity: a study of eight OECD countries

Working Papers , Paper 9613

Conference Paper
The impact of the U.S. current account deficit on other OECD countries

Proceedings

Journal Article
OECD growth

International Economic Trends , Issue Feb

Conference Paper
The extent of high unemployment in OECD countries

Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole , Issue Jan , Pages 5-48

Conference Paper
Perspectives on OECD economic integration : implications for U.S. current account adjustment : commentary

Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

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