Active labor market policies to expand employment and opportunity
International business cycles: G7 and OECD countries
The progressive globalization of markets has sparked a worldwide interest in using economic indicators to analyze cyclical fluctuations. Governments and the private sector seeking to conduct their activities in light of both national and international economic conditions could benefit from international indicators that serve as a warning system to detect recessions in major economic partners and in industrialized countries as a whole. ; This article constructs just such a warning system. Using a Markov-switching dynamic factor model with a self-adjusting variable-bandwidth filter, the authors ...
The extent of high unemployment in OECD countries
International comparisons of fiscal policy: the OECD and the IMF measures of fiscal impulse
Both the OECD and the IMF periodically estimate and publish measures of fiscal impulse to gauge the extent to which fiscal policy in the major industrial countries has become more or less expansive over time. This paper compares these measures analytically and numerically. The paper shows that the OECD and IMF measures of fiscal impulse differ in at least four fundamental ways: (1) the OECD includes fiscal drag under the presumption that it is part of the "structure" of fiscal policy, while the IMF excludes it from its adjusted measure of the budget balance; (2) the OECD and the IMF both ...
Has the cost of fighting inflation fallen?
During the 1980s, many OECD countries adopted labor-market policies designed to enhance wage flexibility and reduce unemployment. They also attempted to bolster the credibility of their anti-inflation measures through exchange rate and fiscal policies. These measures should have lowered the costs associated with fighting inflation. In this paper, we compare sacrifice ratio measures of the cost of disinflation in the most recent OECD recession with measures for the mid-seventies and early-eighties recessions. Surprisingly, in the overwhelming majority of OECD countries, the cost of reducing ...