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Keywords:Oil prices 

Journal Article
The Response of U.S. Investment to Oil Price Shocks: Does the Shale Boom Matter?

After an unprecedented decline from 2014 to 2016, the real price of oil more than doubled, renewing interest in the effects of oil price fluctuations on the U.S. economy. The oil sector has become increasingly important to the U.S. economy over the past decade, and total U.S. business fixed investment appears to have followed oil investment?s pattern in recent years. This positive correlation between oil prices and U.S. investment growth may be related to the surge in U.S. oil production known as the shale boom. {{p}} Nida ak?r Melek explores the effect of unexpected oil price changes (or ...
Economic Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 39-61

Discussion Paper
A New Approach for Identifying Demand and Supply Shocks in the Oil Market

An oil-price spike is often used as the textbook example of a supply shock. However, rapidly rising oil prices can also reflect a demand shock. Recognizing the difference is important for central bankers. A supply-driven increase in the price of oil can result in higher unemployment and inflation, leaving central bankers with the difficult decision to loosen policy, tighten policy, or not respond at all. A demand-driven increase reflecting global growth may support the case for tighter policy. In this post, we describe an approach for decomposing oil price changes into supply and demand ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130325

Journal Article
The response of employment to changes in oil and gas exploration and drilling

Oil prices declined significantly during the summer of 2014, leading to a subsequent decline in energy exploration and drilling. By the end of April 2015, rig counts were down 49 percent. In the past, these declines have disproportionately affected the economies of oil- and gas-producing states, decreasing statewide employment and inducing ?regional recessions.?
Economic Review , Issue Q II , Pages 57-81

Journal Article
What could lower prices mean for U.S. oil production?

U.S. oil and natural gas production has grown significantly since 2005, reflecting a move toward shale gas and tight oil extraction. Since 2011, the most productive tight oil and shale gas fields accounted for nearly all of the growth in U.S. energy production, due largely to extensive use of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. High energy prices made these costly technologies profitable to apply on a large scale. However, oil prices and rig counts declined sharply in 2014, calling into question whether the boom in U.S. oil production can continue. Nida ak?r Melek examines how ...
Economic Review , Issue Q I , Pages 51-69

Journal Article
The Evolving Link between Oil Prices and U.S. Consumer Spending

Oil prices have fluctuated widely since the 1970s. Historically, consumers have tended to increase spending on non-oil goods and services when oil prices decline and cut back on such spending when oil prices rise. However, this relationship may have changed more recently. The U.S. oil sector has increased in importance in the last decade, and consequently the United States has become less reliant on oil imports. Moreover, gasoline expenditures have fallen as a share of households’ budgets. As a result, price swings may no longer have the same effect on U.S. consumption.Nida Çakır Melek ...
Economic Review , Volume v.106 , Issue no.1 , Pages 41-55

Journal Article
Do Adverse Oil Price Shocks Change Loan Contract Terms for Energy Firms?

This article examined whether the relationship between creditworthiness and loan spreads for energy firms in the syndicated loan market changed after the 2014 oil-price shock. {{p}} The authors use syndicated loans, which are jointly funded by several financial institutions, because the syndicated loan market is a major source of debt financing for oil firms. Credit conditions tightened following the oil-price shock in mid-2014.
Economic Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 59-86

Journal Article
Oil Prices and Inflation Expectations: Is There a Link?

Oil prices and inflation expectations sometimes move in tandem. A close look at three types of shocks to oil prices suggests that not all shocks relate to inflation expectations in the same manner.
The Regional Economist , Issue July

Journal Article
Evaluating a year of oil price volatility

Troy Davig, Nida ak?r Melek, Jun Nie, Lee Smith, and Didem Tzemen find changes in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand are the main drivers of the recent oil price decline.
Macro Bulletin

Working Paper
Oil Prices and Consumption across Countries and U.S. States

We study the effects of oil prices on consumption across countries and U.S. states, by exploiting the time-series and cross-sectional variation in oil dependency of these economies. We build two large datasets: one with 55 countries over the years 1975-2018, and another with all U.S. states over the period 1989-2018. We then show that oil price declines generate positive effects on consumption in oil-importing economies, while depressing consumption in oil-exporting economies. We also document that oil price increases do more harm than the good afforded by oil price decreases both in the ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1263

Journal Article
What could lower prices mean for U.S. oil production?

Melek estimates the effects of the recent oil price decline on 2015 oil production.
Macro Bulletin

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