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Journal Article
Looking ahead: leading indexes for Pennsylvania and New Jersey
Many policymakers and business persons are interested not only in the course of the national economy but also in the prospects for their region's economy. Since 1994, the Philadelphia Fed has published monthly indexes of coincident indicators for the states in the Third Federal Reserve District. A natural complement would be a set of leading indexes. In this article, Ted Crone and Kevin Babyak introduce leading indexes for the two largest states in the District Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
Journal Article
Regional Spotlight: Surveying the South Jersey Economy
After 25 years and two recessions, how well has our South Jersey Business Survey tracked the local economy?
Discussion Paper
Could Superstorm Sandy Stimulate the Region's Economy?
The New York metro region’s recovery from Superstorm Sandy is well under way. Spending on restoration and rebuilding activities following a natural disaster is a potentially powerful economic stimulus to the affected area. Indeed, money from outside the region—in the form of federal aid and private insurance payments—flowing to the damaged areas in the region gives a temporary boost to economic activity. But does this mean that Sandy—along with the federal aid and insurance payouts associated with it—was actually good for the region’s economy? In this post, we examine the nature ...
Discussion Paper
The Great Recession and Recovery in the Tri-State Region
In 2008, as the financial crisis unfolded and the U.S. economy tumbled into a sharp recession, the outlook for the tri-state region (New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut) and especially New York City—the heart of the nation's financial industry—looked grim. Regional economists feared an economic downturn as harsh as the one in 2001, or the even deeper recession of the early 1990s. Now, as the recovery takes hold, we can report that although the economic downturn was severe in the region, with the unemployment rate surging above 9 percent in many places, it was less severe than many had ...
Speech
Restoring Balance
Remarks at New Jersey City University (delivered via videoconference).
Journal Article
New Jersey’s Abbott districts: education finances during the Great Recession
Funding for New Jersey?s low-income school districts tumbled in the most recent recession, and the Abbott districts?a group of poor urban districts that for almost two decades received special appropriations from the state?were hit especially hard. A comparison with the state?s other low-income districts reveals that the Abbott districts faced markedly sharper declines in aid, relative to trend. Consequently, while all of the low-income districts responded to the drop in state aid by scaling back spending on support services and utilities, only the Abbott group also made significant cuts in ...
Journal Article
Regional Spotlight: Pension Gap Perils
Pennsylvania and New Jersey?s pension systems are severely straining their state budgets, and Delaware?s also carry shortfalls Are the significant shortfalls in tristate public pension funds actually far worse than official reports suggest?
Discussion Paper
Just Released: Benchmark Revisions Paint a Brighter Picture of (Most of) the Regional Economy
Every March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases benchmark revisions of state and local payroll employment for the preceding two years. While employment data are released monthly for all 50 states and many metropolitan areas, the monthly figures are estimated based on a sample of firms. The annual revisions are based on an almost complete count of workers (now available up through mid-2014) from the records of the unemployment insurance system and re-estimated data for the remainder of the year. In this post, we briefly summarize the mixed but mostly stronger performance in the region in ...
Journal Article
Housing reform in New Jersey: the Mount Laurel decision
Speech
The Economic Health of the Region
Remarks at the Waterfront Alliance Regional Symposium: Recovery and Resiliency in a New Era (delivered via videoconference).