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Keywords:Monetary theory 

Working Paper
James Pennington, (1777-1862) : classical banking, monetary, and trade theorist and economic policy advisor

James Pennington's creativity as a scientific economist is matched only by his obscurity. He exemplifies the pioneering innovator who never gets his due recognition. Alone and with others he launched (1) the idea that checking deposits are money just like coin and notes, (2) the theory of the multiple expansion of bank deposits, (3) the currency principle according to which a mixed paper-metal currency can be made to behave as if it were entirely metallic, and (4) the notion that reciprocal demand fixes the terms of trade between the comparative cost ratios of two trading nations. Any one of ...
Working Paper , Paper 03-08

Working Paper
Does money matter in inflation forecasting?

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two non-linear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression - techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while ...
Working Papers , Paper 2009-030

Journal Article
Financial intermediation, monetary policy, and equilibrium business cycles

Economic Review , Issue Fall , Pages 19-28

Journal Article
The case for rules in the conduct of monetary policy: a concrete example

A policy rule can be activist; the distinction between rules and discretion depends on the stage at which optimization calculations enter the policy process. Here a specific monetary rule is proposed, one that sets the monetary base each quarter in a manner designed to keep nominal aggregate demand growing smoothly at a noninflationary rate. Simulations with a simple estimated model suggest that the proposed rule would have performed well over the period 1954-85, despite financial innovations and regulatory change.
Economic Review , Volume 73 , Issue Sep , Pages 10-18

Discussion Paper
The 2005 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, and Payments: an overview

This PDP summarizes the papers presented at the 2005 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, and Payments at the Cleveland Fed. Papers covered a wide variety of topics in monetary theory and policy, banking, and payments systems research. Topics ranged from optimal monetary policy, optimal bank contracts, the private supply of money, the coexistence of credit, money, and capital, the design of payment systems, and international currencies. Effort was made to calibrate models and bring them closer to the data. These contributions illustrate the progress made in the field of monetary theory.
Policy Discussion Papers , Issue Mar

Journal Article
Vector autoregression evidence on monetarism: another look at the robustness debate

This paper is a case study of the use of vector autoregression (VAR) models to test economic theories. It focuses on the work of Christopher A. Sims, who in 1980 found that relationships in economic data generated by a small VAR model were inconsistent with those implied by a simple form of monetarist theory. The paper describes the work of researchers who criticized Sims' results as not robust and Sims' response to these critics. The paper reexamines all of this work by estimating hundreds of variations of Sims' model. The paper concludes that both Sims and his critics are right: Sims' ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 14 , Issue Spr , Pages 19-37

Journal Article
The monetarist controversy: presentation

Economic Review , Issue Spr suppl , Pages 5-11

Journal Article
The monetary policy debate since October 1979: lessons for theory and practice

Monetary theory and policy have been revolutionized in the two decades since October 1979, when the Federal Reserve under the leadership of Paul Volcker moved to stabilize inflation and bring it down. On the side of practice, the decisive factor was the demonstration that monetary policy could acquire and maintain credibility for low inflation, and improve the stability of both inflation and output relative to potential. On the theory side, the introduction of rational expectations was decisive because it enabled models of monetary policy to incorporate forward-looking elements of aggregate ...
Review , Volume 87 , Issue Mar , Pages 243-262

Journal Article
\\"Buffer-stock\\" money and the transmission mechanism

Economic Review , Issue Mar , Pages 11-23

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