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Keywords:Monetary policy 

Discussion Paper
Inertial Taylor rules: the benefit of signaling future policy

We trace the consequences of an energy shock on the economy under two different monetary policy rules: a standard Taylor rule where the Fed responds to inflation and the output gap; and a Taylor rule with inertia where the Fed moves slowly to the rate predicted by the standard rule. We show that with both sticky wages and sticky prices, the outcome of an inertial Taylor rule is superior to that of the standard rule, in the sense that inflation is lower and output is higher following an adverse energy shock. However, if prices alone are sticky, things are less clear and the standard rule ...
Policy Discussion Papers , Issue Apr

Conference Paper
Monetary and financial interaction in the business cycle


Monetary policy, money, and inflation

Presentation to the Western Economic Association International, San Francisco, CA, July 2, 2012
Speech , Paper 107

Credit, housing, commodities, and the economy

Speech to the Certified Financial Analysts Institute, Annual Conference, Vancouver, British Columbia, May 13, 2008
Speech , Paper 55

Working Paper
Market reaction to monetary policy nonannouncements

This paper examines how Treasury security yields, stock prices, and federal funds futures rates respond on Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting dates when expected policy actions do not occur. The empirical results support the existence of nonannouncement effects on short- and intermediate-term yields. In particular, part of an expected policy action, measured using federal funds futures rates, is unwound when the action does not materialize. This partial unwinding is consistent with markets reacting to the surprise by postponing, but not eliminating, the possibility of a future ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 98-06

Working Paper
Duration dependence in monetary policy: international evidence

We study the duration of monetary regimes in a simple neo-classical Phillips curve model. The model is an extension of Owyang (2001) and Owyang and Ramey (2001). In this paper, we consider the role of the duration of inflationary regimes on the average inflation rate in an international cross-section. We find that inflationary regimes in certain countries are duration dependent but anti-inflationary regimes are not. In addition, we find that countries with high central banker turnover switch from inflationary to anti-inflationary with lower probability.
Working Papers , Paper 2002-021

Working Paper
Modeling Volcker as a non-absorbing state: agnostic identification of a Markov-switching VAR

Recently, models of monetary policy have been constructed to include structural breaks to account for changes in policymaker preferences or operating procedures. These models typically assume that when changes occur, they happen once and for all. In this paper, we allow the policymaker and the economy to switch freely between regimes. We find that not only does the nature and effect of innovations to monetary policy change, but switching the policy rule and the economy's subsequent response can in and of itself alter the path of the economy. We find the switch itself can generate ...
Working Papers , Paper 2002-018

Working Paper
Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy

Using a regional VAR, we find large differences in the effects of monetary policy shocks across regions of the United States. We also find that the region-level effects of monetary policy differ a great deal between the pre-Volcker and Volcker-Greenspan periods in terms of their depth and length. The two sample periods also yield very different rankings of the regions in terms of the effects of monetary policy. Our regional VAR also suggests that aggregate VARs that ignore regional variations can suffer from severe aggregation bias. We use the results of our regional VAR to find evidence that ...
Working Papers , Paper 2003-008

Summary of the Report on the Competitiveness of Puerto Rico's Economy

Remarks before the Puerto Rico Chamber of Commerce Annual Convention, Fajardo, Puerto Rico.
Speech , Paper 86

Working Paper
Targets, instruments, and monetary policy in an open economy: a GARCH application

Pacific Basin Working Paper Series , Paper 92-04



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