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Speech
2025 Economic Outlook
Barkin, Tom (2025-01-03)
A strong but choosier consumer, coupled with a better-valued, more productive workforce has landed the economy in a good place.My baseline outlook is good. How economic policy uncertainty resolves will matter. But, with what we know today, I expect more upside than downside in terms of growth. I see more risk on the inflation side.The Fed remains well-positioned regardless of how the economy develops. Were employment to falter or inflation to re-emerge, we have the tools to respond.
Speech

Speech
Perspectives on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy. University of Pittsburgh Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business and Deloitte LLP, Pittsburgh, PA
Mester, Loretta J. (2018-04-19)
Let me begin by thanking Dean Arjang Assad of the Katz Graduate School of Business and Dmitri Shiry of Deloitte for inviting me to speak with you this evening. Dmitri performs important public service as a member of the board of directors of the Cleveland Fed?s Pittsburgh Branch, and it just so happens that this building formerly housed our branch. The regional nature of the Federal Reserve has served the country well for more than 100 years. It allows monetary policy decisions to take into account the diversity of the American economy and its people and helps ensure that those decisions ...
Speech , Paper 97

Speech
Remarks on the FOMC’s Monetary Policy Framework; 02-23-2018: Panel Remarks at the 2018 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, Sponsored by the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, New York, NY
Mester, Loretta J. (2018-02-23)
I will focus my brief remarks on the FOMC?s monetary policy framework for determining the appropriate policy to promote our longer-run monetary policy goals. Recently, some economists and policymakers have recommended that the FOMC evaluate its monetary policy framework. Indeed, a careful reader of the January FOMC minutes, released earlier this week, might have noticed that a few participants suggested such an examination. The FOMC has not indicated whether or not it will undertake such a review. But let me provide my own thoughts on the rationale for undertaking an assessment, what it might ...
Speech , Paper 94

Has U.S. Monetary Policy Gone Off Track?
Koenig, Evan F. (2019-06-06)
The actions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) can be explained by the committee’s pursuit of full employment and price stability.
Dallas Fed Economics

Real-Time Market Monitoring Finds Signs of Brewing U.S. Housing Bubble
Coulter, Jarod; Grossman, Valerie; Martinez-Garcia, Enrique; Phillips, Peter C.B.; Shi, Shuping (2022-03-29)
There is growing cause for concern that U.S. house prices are again becoming unhinged from fundamentals.
Dallas Fed Economics

Discussion Paper
The Effect of Fed Funds Rate Hikes on Consumer Borrowing Costs
Boyarchenko, Nina; Plosser, Matthew; Kim, Sooji (2015-12-21)
The target federal funds rate has hovered around zero for nearly a decade, and observers are questioning what effect an increase could have on both the financial markets and the real economy. In this post, we examine the historical reaction of loan rates to target rate increases. Specifically, we examine the interest rates that banks offer on residential mortgages and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20151221

Speech
The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy 09.28.16 Greater Cleveland Partnership Middle-Market Forum, Cleveland, OH
Mester, Loretta J. (2016-09-28)
It is a pleasure to welcome you to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Since my arrival in Cleveland over two years ago, I have seen first-hand the important role that the Greater Cleveland Partnership plays in supporting the growth of our regional economy and I am very proud to serve on its board. Of course, as president of one of the country?s 12 Federal Reserve Banks I have a keen interest in our regional economy. As we gather in the lobby of this historic building, it is hard not to think back to a time more than 100 years ago and applaud the Congressmen ? yes, they were all men back ...
Speech , Paper 76

Working Paper
Innovation, Productivity, and Monetary Policy
Moran, Patrick Donnelly; Queraltó, Albert (2017-11-22)
To what extent can monetary policy impact business innovation and productivity growth? We use a New Keynesian model with endogenous total factor productivity (TFP) to quantify the TFP losses due to the constraints on monetary policy imposed by the zero lower bound (ZLB) and the TFP benefits of tightening monetary policy more slowly than currently anticipated. In the model, monetary policy influences firms incentives to develop and implement innovations. We use evidence on the dynamic effects of R&D and monetary shocks to estimate key parameters and assess model performance. The model suggests ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1217

Speech
An Update on the U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy
Mester, Loretta J. (2022-02-24)
In my remarks three years ago, I characterized 2019 as a year of transition for the economy and monetary policy. At that time, economic growth was expected to transition to a more sustainable pace after above-trend growth in 2018, and we were completing a monetary policy transition that had been underway for some time: a transition away from the emergency monetary policy settings needed in the wake of the Great Recession to more normal policy.Today, we are at the start of another monetary policy transition, this time away from the extraordinary accommodation that was necessary earlier in the ...
Speech

Working Paper
Domestic Policies and Sovereign Default
Espino, Emilio; Sanchez, Juan M.; Martin, Fernando M.; Kozlowski, Julian (2022-05-23)
A model with two essential elements, sovereign default and distortionary fiscal and monetary policies, explains the interaction between sovereign debt, default risk and inflation in emerging countries. We derive conditions under which monetary policy is actively used to support fiscal policy and characterize the intertemporal tradeoffs that determine the choice of debt. We show that in response to adverse shocks to the terms of trade or productivity, governments reduce debt and deficits, and increase inflation and currency depreciation rates, matching the patterns observed in the data for ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-017

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