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Speech
The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Communications 03.21.17 The Stanley S. Watts Lecture, The Robins School of Business, University of Richmond, Richmond, VA
Mester, Loretta J. (2017-03-21)
This evening, I will speak about monetary policy and the role of communications in Federal Reserve policymaking. I serve on the Federal Open Market Committee?s subcommittee on communications, so it may not be surprising that I believe communications play an essential role in monetary policy implementation. Of course, my remarks this evening will reflect my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee.
Speech , Paper 80

Private Forecasters’ COVID-19 Global Growth Outlook Takes Shape
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique (2020-05-05)
Private forecasters have anticipated since April 2 that the economy would contract for two consecutive quarters, marking a global recession unlike any seen in peacetime.
Dallas Fed Economics

Briefing
How Do Small Business Finance and Monetary Policy Interact?
Phelps, Hailey; Wong, Russell (2020-10)
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 20 , Issue 11 , Pages 6 pgs.

Consumers’ and Economists’ Differing Inflation Views Can Complicate Policymaking
Atkinson, Tyler (2019-06-25)
Economists and consumers likely think of different concepts when they consider inflation. Economists typically focus on the underlying trend that monetary policy can steer. U.S. consumers appear to think instead about unpredictable changes in prices most relevant to their regular decision-making.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges
Boyarchenko, Nina; Favara, Giovanni; Schularick, Moritz (2022-02-15)
This paper reviews literature on the empirical relationship between vulnerabilities in the financial system and the macroeconomy, and how monetary policy affects that connection. Financial vulnerabilities build up over time, with both risk appetite and risk taking rising during economic expansions. To some extent, financial crises are predictable and have severe real economic consequences when they occur. Empirically it is difficult to link monetary policy to financial vulnerabilities, in part because financial cycles have long durations, making it difficult to separate effects of changes in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-006

Journal Article
When Normalizing Monetary Policy, the Order of Operations Matters
Dilts Stedman, Karlye; Gulati, Chaitri (2021-10-14)
As economic conditions in the United States continue to improve, the FOMC may consider normalizing monetary policy. Whether the FOMC reduces the balance sheet before raising the federal funds rate (or vice versa) may affect the shape of the yield curve, with consequences for financial institutions. Drawing lessons from the previous normalization in 2015–19, we conclude that normalizing the balance sheet before raising the funds rate might forestall yield curve inversion and, in turn, support economic stability.
Economic Bulletin , Issue October 14, 2021 , Pages 4

Monetary Policy in Time of Pandemic
Koenig, Evan F. (2020-04-16)
Some monetary policy strategies have greater potential than others to mitigate pandemic-related financial strains.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Inequality in the Welfare Costs of Disinflation
Rubinton, Hannah; Pugsley, Benjamin (2019-12-04)
We use an incomplete markets economy to quantify the distribution of welfare gains and losses of the US "Volcker" disinflation. In the long run households prefer low inflation, but disinflation requires a transition period and a redistribution from net nominal borrowers to net nominal savers. Even with perfectly flexible prices, welfare costs may be significant for households with nominal liabilities. When calibrated to match the micro and macro moments of the early 1980s high inflation environment, almost half of all borrowers (14 percent of all households) would prefer to avoid the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-021

Working Paper
The Effect of Central Bank Credibility on Forward Guidance in an Estimated New Keynesian Model
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique; Cole, Stephen J. (2021-03-20)
This paper examines the effectiveness of forward guidance in an estimated New Keynesian model with imperfect central bank credibility. We estimate credibility for the U.S. Federal Reserve with Bayesian methods exploiting survey data on interest rate expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The results provide important takeaways: (1) The estimate of Federal Reserve credibility in terms of forward guidance announcements is relatively high, which indicates muted forward guidance effectiveness relative to the fully credible case. Hence, anticipation effects are attenuated ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 375

Nominal GDP Outlook Suggests It's Time to End Monetary Accommodation
Atkinson, Tyler; Koenig, Evan F.; Max, Ezra (2022-01-13)
We argue that the policy response to COVID-19 has been broadly on track to date but that continued monetary accommodation (lowering interest rates or purchasing assets) risks fueling excessive inflation.
Dallas Fed Economics

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