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Working Paper
The International Spillovers of Synchronous Monetary Tightening
Caldara, Dario; Ferrante, Francesco; Iacoviello, Matteo; Prestipino, Andrea; Queraltó, Albert (2023-11-29)
We use historical data and a calibrated model of the world economy to study how a synchronous monetary tightening can amplify cross-border transmission of monetary policy. The empirical analysis shows that historical episodes of synchronous tightening are associated with tighter financial conditions and larger effects on economic activity than asynchronous ones. In the model, a sufficiently large synchronous tightening can disrupt intermediation of credit by global financial intermediaries causing large output losses and an increase in sacrifice ratios, that is, output lost for a given ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1384

Briefing
How Do Small Business Finance and Monetary Policy Interact?
Phelps, Hailey; Wong, Russell (2020-10)
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 20 , Issue 11 , Pages 6 pgs.

Journal Article
Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Revelations from the Summary of Economic Projections
Kahn, George A.; Palmer, Andrew (2016-04)
George A. Kahn and Andrew Palmer assess how FOMC participants' projections that policy would lift off from its effective lower bound related to their projections for inflation and unemployment.
Macro Bulletin

Conference Paper
Opening Remarks: Monetary Policy in the Time of COVID
Powell, Jerome H. (2021-08-27)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Working Paper
Expectation and Duration at the Effective Lower Bound
King, Thomas B. (2016-11-30)
I study unconventional monetary policy in a structural model of risk-averse arbitrage, augmented with an effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal rates. The model exposes nonlinear interactions among short-rate expectations, bond supply, and term premia that are absent from models that ignore the ELB, and these features help it replicate the recent behavior of long-term yields, including event-study evidence on the responses to unconventional policy. When the model is calibrated to long-run moments of the yield curve and subjected to shocks approximating the size of the Federal Reserve?s ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2016-21

Real-Time Market Monitoring Finds Signs of Brewing U.S. Housing Bubble
Coulter, Jarod; Grossman, Valerie; Martinez-Garcia, Enrique; Phillips, Peter C.B.; Shi, Shuping (2022-03-29)
There is growing cause for concern that U.S. house prices are again becoming unhinged from fundamentals.
Dallas Fed Economics

Speech
The Outlook for the Economy and Monetary Policy; 02.12.19; Financial Executives International and Xavier University, Cincinnati, OH
Mester, Loretta J. (2019-02-12)
Many of you probably know that the Federal Reserve System comprises 12 regional Reserve Banks, distributed across the country, and the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C. But we also have 24 branch offices. This regional structure helps us to collect information from around the country so that our monetary policy decisions can take into account the diversity of the American economy and its people. I am very grateful for the many contacts throughout the Cleveland Fed?s District who generously share with us their insights into business activity, labor markets, and financial conditions. This ...
Speech , Paper 104

Speech
The Outlook for the National and Regional Economy and Monetary Policy: Low-Frequency Policymaking in a High-Frequency World
Mester, Loretta J. (2016-04-06)
Good afternoon and thank you for that very kind introduction. I also thank the Cleveland Association for Business Economics, CFA Society Cleveland, and the Northern Ohio chapter of the Risk Management Association for inviting me to speak today. The very first speech I gave in Cleveland as president of the Cleveland Fed was at your organizations' invitation. As they say, you never forget your first, and so it is with great pleasure that I am back with you today. Another reason I'm happy to be here is that I believe an important responsibility of Federal Reserve policymakers is to share their ...
Speech , Paper 70

Speech
The National and Regional Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy, 11-30-2016; The African American Chamber of Commerce of Western Pennsylvania Annual Business Luncheon, Pittsburgh, PA
Mester, Loretta J. (2016-11-30)
Today, I would like to focus on our monetary policy role by discussing my outlook for both the national and regional economy and my views on monetary policy. The economic expansion is now in its eighth year, and considerable progress has been and continues to be made on both parts of the Fed?s statutory goals of full employment and price stability. In my view, the underlying fundamentals supporting the economic expansion remain sound. As we gain more clarity about the policies that might be forthcoming, the FOMC will assess their effects, as well as the implications of economic and financial ...
Speech , Paper 78

Working Paper
Unconventional monetary policy and the behavior of shorts
Planchon, Jade; McInish, Thomas H.; Neely, Christopher J. (2017-10-27)
In November 2008, the Federal Reserve announced the first of a series of unconventional monetary policies, which would include asset purchases and forward guidance, to reduce long-term interest rates. We investigate the behavior of shorts, considered sophisticated investors, before and after a set of these unconventional monetary policy announcements that spot bond markets did not fully anticipate. Short interest in agency securities systematically predicts bond price changes and other asset returns on the days of monetary announcements, particularly when growth or monetary news is released, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-31

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