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Working Paper
Supply and demand shifts of shorts before Fed announcements during QE1–QE3
Planchon, Jade; McInish, Thomas H.; Neely, Christopher J. (2020-12-17)
Cohen, Diether, and Malloy (Journal of Finance, 2007), find that shifts in the demand curve predict negative stock returns. We use their approach to examine changes in supply and demand at the time of FOMC announcements. We show that shifts in the demand for borrowing Treasuries and agencies predict quantitative easing. A reduction in the quantity demanded at all points along the demand curve predicts expansionary quantitative easing announcements.
Working Papers , Paper 2020-051

Speech
The Outlook for the Economy and Monetary Policy: Low-Frequency Policymaking in a High-Frequency World
Mester, Loretta J. (2016-04-01)
Good afternoon. I thank Ellen Zentner and the New York Association for Business Economics for the invitation to speak to you today. I believe that one of the important responsibilities of a Federal Reserve policymaker is to share his or her economic perspectives with the public. Congress has wisely given the Fed independence in making monetary policy decisions in pursuit of our statutory goals of price stability and maximum employment. I say "wisely" because a body of research and practical experience both here and abroad show that when central banks formulate monetary policy free from ...
Speech , Paper 69

Speech
Perspectives on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy. University of Pittsburgh Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business and Deloitte LLP, Pittsburgh, PA
Mester, Loretta J. (2018-04-19)
Let me begin by thanking Dean Arjang Assad of the Katz Graduate School of Business and Dmitri Shiry of Deloitte for inviting me to speak with you this evening. Dmitri performs important public service as a member of the board of directors of the Cleveland Fed?s Pittsburgh Branch, and it just so happens that this building formerly housed our branch. The regional nature of the Federal Reserve has served the country well for more than 100 years. It allows monetary policy decisions to take into account the diversity of the American economy and its people and helps ensure that those decisions ...
Speech , Paper 97

Working Paper
Banks, Maturity Transformation, and Monetary Policy
Paul, Pascal (2020-02-28)
Banks engage in maturity transformation and the term premium compensates them for bearing the associated duration risk. Consistent with this view, I show that banks’ net interest margins and term premia have comoved in the United States over the last decades. On monetary policy announcement days, banks’ stock prices fall in response to an increase in expected future short-term interest rates but rise if term premia increase. These effects are reflected in the response of banks’ net interest margins and amplified for institutions with a larger maturity mismatch. The results reveal that ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-07

Working Paper
The Impact of Covid-19 Related Policy Responses on Municipal Debt Markets
Bernhardt, Robert; D'Amico, Stefania; Palacios, Santiago I. Sordo (2021-09-03)
Municipal (muni) bonds are an important source of funding for state and local governments. During the Covid-19 pandemic, muni debt markets became severely distressed. In response, the Federal Reserve established the Municipal Liquidity Facility (MLF). Meanwhile, Congress enacted extensive fiscal measures that included direct aid to cities and states. To understand whether and how these policies worked, we employ a state-level regression model to estimate the relative efficacy of monetary and fiscal policy interventions for the term structure of muni-Treasury yield spreads. We find that fiscal ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2021-14

Working Paper
From Deviations to Shortfalls: The Effects of the FOMC's New Employment Objective
Bundick, Brent; Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas (2021-07-15)
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently revised its interpretation of its maximum employment mandate. In this paper, we analyze the possible effects of this policy change using a theoretical model with frictional labor markets and nominal rigidities. A monetary policy which stabilizes “shortfalls” rather than “deviations” of employment from its maximum level leads to higher inflation and more hiring at all times due to expectations of more accommodative future policy. Thus, offsetting only shortfalls of employment results in higher nominal policy rates on average which ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2021-18

Global Perspectives: Richard Clarida on U.S. Monetary Policy
Wynne, Mark A. (2019-03-07)
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida discusses a range of topics, including the challenges facing monetary policymakers, the U.S. fiscal situation and the global role of the dollar.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
The Credit Line Channel
Krainer, John; Greenwald, Daniel L.; Paul, Pascal (2020-07-31)
Aggregate bank lending to ﬁrms expands following adverse macroeconomic shocks, such as the outbreak of COVID-19 or a monetary policy tightening, at odds with canonical models. Using loan-level supervisory data, we show that these dynamics are driven by draws on credit lines by large ﬁrms. Banks that experience larger drawdowns restrict term lending more — an externality onto smaller ﬁrms. Using a structural model, we show that credit lines are necessary to reproduce the ﬂow of credit toward less constrained ﬁrms after adverse shocks. While credit lines increase total credit ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-26

Journal Article
Why Has Inflation Persistence Declined?
Van Zandweghe, Willem; Kurozumi, Takushi (2018-04-11)
Macro Bulletin

Fed’s New Inflation Targeting Policy Seeks to Maintain Well-Anchored Expectations
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique; Grossman, Valerie; Coulter, Jarod (2021-04-06)
The Fed’s evolving understanding of the economy and its reassessment of the natural rate of interest have led to arguably the most significant policy change since 2012.
Dallas Fed Economics

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