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Keywords:Macroeconomics 

Journal Article
Credit in the macroeconomy

Quarterly Review , Volume 18 , Issue Spr

Working Paper
Learning and monetary policy shifts

This paper estimates a dynamic stochastic equilibrium model in which agents use a Bayesian rule to learn about the state of monetary policy. Monetary policy follows a nominal interest rate rule that is subject to regime shifts. The following results are obtained. First, the author's policy regime estimates are consistent with the popular view that policy was marked by a shift to a high-inflation regime in the early 1970s, which ended with Volcker's stabilization policy at the beginning of the 1980s. Second, while Bayesian posterior odds favor the "full-information" version of the model in ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2003-23

Journal Article
Persistent macroeconomic imbalances in the Euro area: causes and consequences

In this paper, the authors document a growing divergence between current account imbalances in northern and southern euro area countries from 1992 to 2007. The imbalance occurred without a concomitant rise in productivity and growth in the southern (deficit) countries. The authors argue that systematic monitoring of external imbalances and implementation of better coordinated policies to prevent the emergence of unsustainably large imbalances in the euro area is advisable because (i) country heterogeneity and the absence of optimal currency area characteristics may lead to the emergence of ...
Review , Volume 94 , Issue Jan , Pages 1-20

Journal Article
Commentary on \\"Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium\\"

Review , Volume 89 , Issue Jul , Pages 271-282

Report
Forecasting through the rear-view mirror: data revisions and bond return predictability

Real-time macroeconomic data reflect the information available to market participants, whereas final data?containing revisions and released with a delay?overstate the information set available to them. We document that the in-sample and out-of-sample Treasury return predictability is significantly diminished when real-time as opposed to revised macroeconomic data are used. In fact, much of the predictive information in macroeconomic time series is due to the data revision and publication lag components.
Staff Reports , Paper 581

Journal Article
Rethinking the IS in IS-LM: adapting Keynesian tools to non-Keynesian economies Part 2

The IS-LM diagram was developed as a tool for analyzing Keynesian economies-economies with sticky prices and myopic households. In Part 1 of this article, Evan Koenig showed how a graphical apparatus similar to the traditional IS-LM diagram can be used to analyze economies with a fixed capital stock and optimizing, forward-looking households. Part 2 extends the earlier analysis to an economy with capital investment. As before, an expectations-augmented variant of the IS-LM model is found to include a popular real-business-cycle model as a special case. Thus, the IS-LM diagram has wide ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Dec , Pages 17-35

Journal Article
Changes in monetary policy effectiveness: evidence from large macroeconomic models

This article evaluates changes in the aggregate effectiveness of monetary policy and changes in monetary policy transmission mechanisms by examining how traditional large-scale macroeconometric models have evolved in the last ten to fifteen years. The article analyzes shifts in model structure and sheds some light on the changing relationship between policy and the real economy by reporting simulations that use different historical versions of the models.
Quarterly Review , Volume 17 , Issue Spr

Journal Article
A summary of the conference on real-time data analysis.

The conference focused on five topics: data revisions, forecasting, policy analysis, financial research, and macroeconomic research. In "A Summary of the Conference on Real-Time Data Analysis," Tom Stark reviews the papers presented at the conference
Business Review , Issue Q 1 , Pages 5-11

Working Paper
Monetary policy under uncertainty in micro-founded macroeconometric models

We use a micro-founded macroeconometric modeling framework to investigate the design of monetary policy when the central bank faces uncertainty about the true structure of the economy. We apply Bayesian methods to estimate the parameters of the baseline specification using postwar U.S. data and then determine the policy under commitment that maximizes household welfare. We find that the performance of the optimal policy is closely matched by a simple operational rule that focuses solely on stabilizing nominal wage inflation. Furthermore, this simple wage stabilization rule is remarkably ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2005-15

Working Paper
Fiscal policy and default risk in emerging markets

Emerging market economies typically exhibit a procyclical fiscal policy: public expenditures rise (fall) in economic expansions (recessions), whereas tax rates rise (fall) in bad (good) times. Additionally, the business cycle of these economies is characterized by countercyclical default risk. In this paper we develop a quantitative dynamic stochastic small open economy model with incomplete markets, endogenous fiscal policy and sovereign default where public expenditures and tax rates are optimally procyclical. The model also accounts for the dynamics of other key macroeconomic variables in ...
Working Paper , Paper 09-01

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