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Discussion Paper
The Great Moderation, Forecast Uncertainty, and the Great Recession

The Great Recession of 2007-09 was a dramatic macroeconomic event, marked by a severe contraction in economic activity and a significant fall in inflation. These developments surprised many economists, as documented in a recent post on this site. One factor cited for the failure to anticipate the magnitude of the Great Recession was a form of complacency affecting forecasters in the wake of the so-called Great Moderation. In this post, we attempt to quantify the role the Great Moderation played in making the Great Recession appear nearly impossible in the eyes of macroeconomists.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120514

Discussion Paper
Searching for Higher Wages

Since the peak of the recession, the unemployment rate has fallen by almost 5 percentage points, and observers continue to focus on whether and when this decline will lead to robust wage growth. Typically, in the wake of such a decline, real wages grow since there is more competition for workers among potential employers. While this relationship has historically been quite informative, real wage growth more recently has not been commensurate with observed declines in the unemployment rate.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150902

Conference Paper
Labor market behavior

In this paper, the author separates the economic from the psychological aspects of labor market behavior and argues that the psychological ones deserve careful study.
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 48 , Issue Jun

Conference Paper
How organizations behave: towards implications for economics and economic policy

This essay begins with introductions to the two sides of organizational economics: the economics of internal organization (which focuses on the internal structure and functioning of organizations) and the economic theory of the firm (which focuses on organizations' boundaries and on relationships across these boundaries). Taken literally, these issues are only loosely related to the conference theme of "How Humans Behave," but the author does see a high-level parallel: both behavioral economics and organizational economics are investigating new approaches to modeling economic actors ...
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 48 , Issue Jun

Journal Article
Using bank supervisory data to improve macroeconomic forecasts

Locating the function of bank supervision in the central bank has been a contentious issue, both domestically and internationally. Most discussions of the role of bank supervision in central banking have focused on crisis management and the responsibilities of the central bank as a lender of last resort. However, recent research by the authors has shown that confidential supervisory information garnered through bank examinations potentially can improve the forecasts of key macroeconomic variables and thus the conduct of monetary policy. Forecasting macroeconomic variables is essential to the ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Sep , Pages 21-32

Journal Article
How accurate are macroeconomic forecasts?

New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 15-36

Journal Article
An evaluation of recent macroeconomic forecast errors

Despite a significant decline in the pace of economic growth in the second half of 2000, macroeconomic forecasters underpredicted real GDP growth and overpredicted the unemployment rate by a significant amount, for the fifth consecutive year. On average, real GDP forecasts were about 2 percentage points below the actual data for the 1996-2000 period, and unemployment rate forecasts about 0.5 percentage point above. On a more positive note, forecasters ended their chronic overprediction of inflation during much of this period. Nevertheless, surprisingly large and persistent errors in recent ...
New England Economic Review

Journal Article
How humans behave: implications for economics and economic policy

Economic policymakers attempt to improve the welfare of their citizens, based on assumptions about how people think, feel, and behave, and on what they view as welfare-improving. Economists usually describe economic agents as fully informed and model them as striving to maximize a set of stable preferences. While these assumptions provide a simple framework for analyzing economic activity, actual human behavior has proved more complex. As a result, economists have started looking to psychologists and others who study human behavior for guidance on the decision-making process, the roles of ...
New England Economic Review

Opening remarks for the Transatlantic Economic Interdependence and Policy Challenges Conference

Remarks at the Transatlantic Economic Interdependence and Policy Challenges Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 104

Address to the New College class of 2010

Remarks at the New College of Florida 44th Annual Commencement, Sarasota, Florida.
Speech , Paper 23



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