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Conference Paper
Libertarian paternalism is not an oxymoron
Thaler, Richard H.; Sunstein, Cass R. (2003-06)
The idea of libertarian paternalism might seem to be an oxymoron, but it is both possible and legitimate for private and public institutions to affect behavior while also respecting freedom of choice. Often people's preferences are ill-formed, and their choices will inevitably be influenced by default rules, framing effects, and starting points. In these circumstances, a form of paternalism cannot be avoided. Equipped with an understanding of behavioral findings of bounded rationality and bounded self-control, libertarian paternalists should attempt to steer people's choices in ...
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 48 , Issue Jun

Conference Paper
Recent developments in macroeconomics: a very quick refresher course: a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, October 29-31, 1987
anonymous (1988)
Proceedings

Report
Forecasting through the rear-view mirror: data revisions and bond return predictability
Moench, Emanuel; Horan, Casidhe; Ghysels, Eric (2012)
Real-time macroeconomic data reflect the information available to market participants, whereas final data?containing revisions and released with a delay?overstate the information set available to them. We document that the in-sample and out-of-sample Treasury return predictability is significantly diminished when real-time as opposed to revised macroeconomic data are used. In fact, much of the predictive information in macroeconomic time series is due to the data revision and publication lag components.
Staff Reports , Paper 581

Working Paper
Fiscal policy and default risk in emerging markets
Sanchez, Juan M.; Cuadra, Gabriel; Sapriza, Horacio (2009)
Emerging market economies typically exhibit a procyclical fiscal policy: public expenditures rise (fall) in economic expansions (recessions), whereas tax rates rise (fall) in bad (good) times. Additionally, the business cycle of these economies is characterized by countercyclical default risk. In this paper we develop a quantitative dynamic stochastic small open economy model with incomplete markets, endogenous fiscal policy and sovereign default where public expenditures and tax rates are optimally procyclical. The model also accounts for the dynamics of other key macroeconomic variables in ...
Working Paper , Paper 09-01

Journal Article
An evaluation of recent macroeconomic forecast errors
Schuh, Scott (2001)
Despite a significant decline in the pace of economic growth in the second half of 2000, macroeconomic forecasters underpredicted real GDP growth and overpredicted the unemployment rate by a significant amount, for the fifth consecutive year. On average, real GDP forecasts were about 2 percentage points below the actual data for the 1996-2000 period, and unemployment rate forecasts about 0.5 percentage point above. On a more positive note, forecasters ended their chronic overprediction of inflation during much of this period. Nevertheless, surprisingly large and persistent errors in recent ...
New England Economic Review

Journal Article
Distinguishing theories of the monetary transmission mechanism.
Cecchetti, Stephen G. (1995-05)
Review , Issue May , Pages 83-97

Conference Paper
Postwar developments in business cycle theory: a moderately classical perspective
McCallum, Bennett T. (1988)
Proceedings

Working Paper
A guide to FRB/Global
Rogers, John H.; Tryon, Ralph W.; Levin, Andrew T. (1997)
This paper describes the structure and illustrates the key features of FRB/Global, a large-scale macroeconomic model used in analyzing exogenous shocks and alternative policy responses in foreign economies and in examining the impact of these external shocks on the U.S. economy. FRB/Global imposes fiscal and national solvency constraints and utilizes error-correction mechanisms in the behavioral equations to ensure the long-run stability of the model. In FRB/Global, expectations play an important role in determining financial market variables and domestic expenditures. Simulations can be ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 588

Journal Article
Price signals
Clement, Douglas (2003-09)
Economist Pete Klenow analyzes price differences-over time, among products and across countries-to shed light on some of economics' most contentious issues
The Region , Volume 17 , Issue Sep , Pages 8-11, 46-51

Working Paper
Did the Great Inflation occur despite policymaker commitment to a Taylor rule?
Bullard, James B.; Eusepi, Stefano (2003)
The authors study the hypothesis that misperceptions of trend productivity growth during the onset of the productivity slowdown in the United States caused much of the great inflation of the 1970s. They use the general equilibrium, sticky price framework of Woodford (2002), augmented with learning using the techniques of Evans and Honkapohja (2001). The authors allow for endogenous investment as well as explicit, exogenous growth in productivity and the labor input. They assume the monetary policymaker is committed to using a Taylor-type policy rule. The authors study how this economy reacts ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2003-20

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