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Keywords:Macroeconomics 

Journal Article
The state of modern economics : Unsteady state

The ongoing evolution of mainstream economics
Econ Focus , Volume 12 , Issue Spr/Sum , Pages 12-16

Report
Macro news, risk-free rates, and the intermediary: customer orders for thirty-year Treasury futures

Customer order flow correlates with permanent price changes in equity and non-equity markets. We examine macro news events in the thirty-year Treasury futures market to identify causality from customer flow to risk-free rates. We remove the positive feedback trading effect and establish that, in the fifteen minutes subsequent to the news, intermediaries rely on customer orders to determine a substantial part of the announcement?s effect on risk-free rates?about one-third relative to the instantaneous effect. Intermediaries appear to benefit from privately observing informed customers, since ...
Staff Reports , Paper 307

Journal Article
On the sources of movements in inflation expectations : a few insights from a VAR model

Using a VAR model that includes a survey measure of expected inflation, this article investigates the responses of expected inflation to temporary shocks to macroeconomic variables during three sample periods, 1953:1--1979:1, 1979:2--2001:1, and 1985:1--2007:1. Shocks to actual inflation, commodity prices, and expected inflation itself have been three major sources of movement in expected inflation, together explaining over 80 percent of the variability in expected inflation. Positive shocks to actual inflation, commodity prices, and expected inflation itself lead to increases in expected ...
Economic Quarterly , Volume 94 , Issue Spr , Pages 121-146

Journal Article
Labor markets and the macroeconomy: conference summary

This Economic Letter summarizes the papers presented at a conference on "Labor Markets and the Macroeconomy" held at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on March 3 and 4, 2006.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Macro fiscal policy in economic unions: states as agents

An important component of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act?s (ARRA?s) $796 billion proposed stimulus budget was $318 billion in fiscal assistance to state and local governments, yet the authors have no precise estimates of the impact of such assistance on the macroeconomy. In evaluating ARRA, both the Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) used instead the impacts of direct federal spending and tax relief. These estimates miss the role of states as agents. The authors provide estimates of aid?s multiplier effects allowing explicitly for state ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-20

Journal Article
Fully funded social security: Now you see it, now you don't?

Governments of countries around the world, including the United States, are considering implementing social security reform programs. In most cases, one of the principal goals of the reform program is to convert a pay-as-you-go social security system into a fully funded system. Most economists believe that the long-run macroeconomic benefits of a successful transition to a fully funded system are likely to be large relative to the benefits from social security reforms of other types. ; The authors of this article describe the basic differences between pay-as-you-go and fully funded systems ...
Economic Review , Volume 84 , Issue Q4 , Pages 16-25

Journal Article
A summary of the conference on real-time data analysis.

The conference focused on five topics: data revisions, forecasting, policy analysis, financial research, and macroeconomic research. In "A Summary of the Conference on Real-Time Data Analysis," Tom Stark reviews the papers presented at the conference
Business Review , Issue Q 1 , Pages 5-11

Journal Article
How does an increase in government purchases affect economy?

This article studies the impact on aggregate economic activity of increases in defense purchases which are unrelated to other developments in the economy. The authors use empirical evidence to evaluate the predictions of several prominent models.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 22 , Issue Q III , Pages 29-43

Journal Article
Credit in the macroeconomy

Quarterly Review , Volume 18 , Issue Spr , Pages 50-70

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