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Working Paper
Discussion of Preston, \"Learning about monetary policy rules when long-horizon expectations matter\"
Honkapohja, Seppo (2003)
The design of interest rate rules for conducting monetary policy have recently been examined for two key concerns. The first issue is determinacy of equilibria. Indeterminacy (multiplicity of stationary rational expectations equilibria) is a concern in models of monopolistic competition and price stickiness are currently a popular framework for the study of monetary policy. The second issue is stability of equilibria under adaptive learning. Some interest rate rules do not perform well when the expectations of the agents get out of equilibrium, e.g. as a result of structural shifts.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2003-19

Working Paper
Are \"deep\" parameters stable? the Lucas critique as an empirical hypothesis
Fuhrer, Jeffrey C.; Estrella, Arturo (1999)
For years, the problems associated with the Lucas critique have loomed over empirical macroeconomics. Since the publication of the classic Lucas (1976) critique, researchers have endeavored to specify models that capture the underlying dynamic decision-making behavior of consumers and firms who require forecasts of future events. By uncovering "deep" structural parameters that characterize these fundamental behaviors, and by explicitly modeling expectations, it is argued one can capture the dependence of agents' behavior on the functions describing policy. However, relatively little effort ...
Working Papers , Paper 99-4

Working Paper
Benefits and spillovers of greater competition in Europe: a macroeconomic assessment
Bayoumi, Tamim; Laxton, Douglas; Pesenti, Paolo (2004)
Using a general-equilibrium simulation model featuring nominal rigidities and monopolistic competition in product and labor markets, this paper estimates the macroeconomic benefits and international spillovers of an increase in competition. After calibrating the model to the euro area vs. the rest of the industrial world, the paper draws three conclusions. First, greater competition produces large effects on macroeconomic performance, as measured by standard indicators. In particular, we show that differences in competition can account for over half of the current gap in GDP per capita ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 803

Working Paper
Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S.
Sargent, Thomas J.; Cogley, Timothy (2003)
For a VAR with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatilities, the authors present posterior densities for several objects that are of interest for designing and evaluating monetary policy. These include measures of inflation persistence, the natural rate of unemployment, a core rate of inflation, and "activism coefficients" for monetary policy rules. Their posteriors imply substantial variation of all of these objects for post WWII U.S. data. After adjusting for changes in volatility, persistence of inflation increases during the 1970s then falls in the 1980s and 1990s. Innovation ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2003-25

Conference Paper
Macroeconomic models for monetary policy: a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, March 1-2, 2002
anonymous (2002-03)
Proceedings , Issue Mar

Working Paper
When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?
Faust, Jon; Leeper, Eric M. (1994)
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 94-2

Speech
The Federal Reserve's asset purchase program: a speech at the The Brimmer Policy Forum, Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting, Denver, Colorado, January 8, 2011
Yellen, Janet L. (2011)
a speech at the The Brimmer Policy Forum, Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting, Denver, Colorado, January 8, 2011
Speech , Paper 559

Working Paper
International evidence on the stability of the optimizing IS equation
Kara, Amit; Nelson, Edward (2004)
In this paper we provide international evidence on the issue of whether the optimizing IS equation is more stable than a backward-looking alternative. The international evidence consist of estimates of IS equations on quarterly data for the UK and Australia, both for the full sample of the last 40 years and for the period following major monetary policy shifts in 1979-80. Our results suggest that the parameters in the optimizing IS equations are more empirically stable than those of the backward-looking alternative. The use of dynamic general equilibrium modelling in empirical work does ...
Working Papers , Paper 2003-020

Working Paper
Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations
Stock, James H.; Watson, Mark W. (1994)
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper 94-13

Journal Article
New uses for new macro derivatives
Wolfers, Justin (2006)
Economic forecasters often look to the performance of futures markets to help predict such economic developments as movements in the price of oil and other commodities. In addition, relatively new financial market instruments, like TIPS, help policymakers get a handle on the public's inflation expectations. ; In the last few years, derivatives markets involving bets on future economic events have emerged. In October 2002, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank joined forces to form a market in what they call "Economic Derivatives." More recently, other U.S.-based markets have been created for ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

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