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Assessing the Lucas critique in monetary policy models
Empirical estimates of monetary policy rules suggest that the behavior of U.S. monetary policymakers changed during the past few decades. However, at the same time, statistical analyses of lagged representations of the economy, such as VARs, often have not rejected the null of structural stability. These two sets of empirical results appear to contradict the Lucas critique. This paper provides a reconciliation by showing that the apparent policy invariance of reduced forms is consistent with the magnitude of historical policy shifts and the relative insensitivity of the reduced forms of ...
Nobel views on inflation and unemployment
The Industrial Revolution: past and future
"We live in a world of staggering and unprecedented income inequality," writes Nobel Laureate Robert Lucas in the 2003 annual report essay. Lucas goes on to use economic history to frame explanations and present possible solutions to this global quandary.