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Keywords:Labor productivity 

Working Paper
Intangible capital and economic growth

Published macroeconomic data traditionally exclude most intangible investment from measured GDP. This situation is beginning to change, but our estimates suggest that as much as $800 billion is still excluded from U.S. published data (as of 2003), and that this leads to the exclusion of more than $3 trillion of business intangible capital stock. To assess the importance of this omission, we add intangible capital to the standard sources-of-growth framework used by the BLS, and find that the inclusion of our list of intangible assets makes a significant difference in the observed patterns of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2006-24

Working Paper
Determinants of long-run labor productivity growth: a selective survey with some new empirical results

Using cross-country data, we review the empirical evidence concerning long-term labor and total factor productivity growth. We find that the conclusions one can draw from cross-country data are surprisingly modest. Nevertheless, we confirm the crucial role for physical capital accumulation in enhancing labor productivity growth and develop a role for human capital in an endogenous growth framework. We also find that the performances of so-called "ancillary variables" are rather insignificant in the presence of proxies for physical and human capital stocks.
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 94-17

Working Paper
Cyclically-adjusted measures of structural trend breaks: an application to productivity trends in the 1990s

This paper compares several linear trend break models of labor productivity. One empirical problem that arises when estimating trends in macroeconomic data is the influence of cyclical behavior on tests of trend breaks. Using various methods to correct for cyclical influences, this paper finds that a simple linear trend model with a small number of breaks aptly characterizes aggregate productivity. Moreover, this paper confirms previous research that has found that the aggregate productivity trend has not steepened in the 1990s. Econometrically, this paper shows the benefits of using ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 96-14

Working Paper
Growing old together: firm survival and employee turnover

Labor market outcomes such as turnover and earnings are correlated with employer characteristics, even after controlling for observable differences in worker characteristics. We argue that this systematic relationship constitutes strong evidence in favor of models where workers choose how much to invest in future productivity. Because employer characteristics are correlated with firm survival, returns to these investments vary across firm types. We describe a dynamic general equilibrium model where workers employed in firms more likely to survive choose to devote more time to productivity ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2005-22

Journal Article
Where's the productivity growth (from the information technology revolution)?

Information technology has advanced rapidly in the last two or three decades, and an equivalent rapid gain in economy-wide productivity has been anticipated. Productivity statistics, however, do not support this expectation. Although productivity growth has risen since the slowdown witnessed in the 1970s, it can hardly be described as phenomenal. Donald S. Allen discusses some of the current explanations for this apparent disparity and suggests that, as the workforce catches up to the technology level and exploits its full potential, productivity growth will increase.
Review , Issue Mar , Pages 15-25

Journal Article
The 1990s acceleration in labor productivity: causes and measurement

The acceleration of labor productivity growth that began during the mid-1990s is the defining economic event of the past decade. A consensus has arisen among economists that the acceleration was caused by technological innovations that decreased the quality-adjusted prices of semiconductors and related information and communications technology (ICT) products, including digital computers. In sharp contrast to the previous 20 years, services-producing sectors-heavy users of ICT products-led the productivity increase, besting even a robust manufacturing sector. In this article, the authors ...
Review , Volume 88 , Issue May , Pages 181-202

Journal Article
Why the optimism?

In spite of the recent recession, hopes for the New Economy have been little daunted. Surprisingly robust productivity growth during the recent downturn provides compelling new evidence that something truly fundamental is going on. This Commentary argues that advances in information technology, and their diffusion through the economy, justify our optimism. Higher productivity growth is not an ephemeral phenomenon but one likely to persist for some time into the future, perhaps even accelerating further.
Economic Commentary , Issue Apr

Speech
A strategy for the 2011 economic recovery

Remarks at Dominican College, Orangeburg, New York.
Speech , Paper 41

Working Paper
The case of the missing productivity growth: or, does information technology explain why productivity accelerated in the United States but not the United Kingdom?

Solow's paradox has disappeared in the United States but remains alive and well in the United Kingdom. In particular, the U.K. experienced an information and communications technology (ICT) investment boom in the 1990s in parallel with the U.S., but measured total factor productivity has decelerated rather than accelerated in recent years. We ask whether ICT can explain the divergent TFP performance in the two countries. Stories of ICT as a 'general purpose technology' suggest that measured TFP should rise in ICT-using sectors (reflecting either unobserved accumulation of intangible ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-03-08

Journal Article
The mystery

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