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Keywords:Labor market 

Working Paper
Diagnosing labor market search models: a multiple-shock approach

We construct a multiple shock, discrete time version of the Mortensen-Pissarides labor market search model to investigate the basic model?s well-known tendency to underpredict the volatility of key labor market variables. In addition to the standard labor productivity shock, we introduce shocks to matching effi ciency and job separation. We conduct two set of experiments. First, we estimate the joint probability distribution of shocks that simultaneously satisfy the observed data and the fi rst-order conditions of the multiple-shock model, and then simulate its properties. Although the ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1211

Working Paper
Aggregate shocks and labor market fluctuations

This paper evaluates the dynamic response of worker flows, job flows, and vacancies to aggregate shocks in a structural vector autoregression. We identify demand, monetary, and technology shocks by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of output, inflation, the interest rate, and the relative price of investment. No restrictions are placed on the responses of job and worker flows variables. We find that both investment-specific and neutral technology shocks generate responses to job and worker flows variables that are qualitatively similar to those induced by monetary and demand shocks. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2006-004

Working Paper
Heterogeneity and aggregation in the labor market : implications for aggregate preference shifts

The cyclical behavior of hours of work, wages, and consumption does not conform with the prediction of the representative agent with standard preferences. The residual in the intra-temporal first-order condition for commodity consumption and leisure is often viewed as a failure of labor-market clearing. We show that a simple heterogeneous agent economy with incomplete markets and indivisible labor generates an aggregation error that looks much like the preference residual in aggregate data. Our results caution against viewing the preference residual as a failure of labor-market clearing or a ...
Working Paper , Paper 03-17

Journal Article
Jobless recovery redux?

Although the pace of layoffs appears to be subsiding and the overall economy is showing hints of stabilization, most forecasters expect unemployment to continue to increase in coming months and to recede only gradually as recovery takes hold. In this Economic Letter, we evaluate this projection using data on three labor market indicators: worker flows into and out of unemployment; involuntary part-time employment; and temporary layoffs. We pay particular attention to how these indicators compare with data from previous episodes of recession and recovery. Our analysis generally supports ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
What do expected changes in U.S. job structure mean for states and workers in the Tenth District?

Public interest in the future structure of the U.S. labor market has been understandably high in recent years, for several reasons. Some types of manufacturing and service jobs are going offshore. The recovery in employment from the 2001 recession has been sluggish. And the quality of job creation has been called into question. Against this backdrop, policymakers, businesses, workers, and students in the Tenth Federal Reserve District are asking difficult questions about the future of jobs in their area. Will local industries increase or decrease employment in the years ahead? What types of ...
Economic Review , Volume 90 , Issue Q II , Pages 59-93

Journal Article
Jobs in Philadelphia: experience and prospects

Business Review , Issue Dec , Pages 3-51

Journal Article
The U.S. establishment-size distribution: secular changes and sectoral decomposition

This article studies the U.S. establishment-size distribution from 1974?2006. The main findings are: (i) the size of the ?representative? establishment is relatively constant; (ii) the size distribution has become slightly more evenly distributed; (iii) the relative stability of aggregate statistics obscures important movements in the manufacturing and service sectors; (iv) both intra- and intersector changes contribute to aggregate changes; and (v) changes in the size distribution of firms are similar to those of establishments. These findings will be useful to calibrate and test models with ...
Economic Quarterly , Volume 95 , Issue Fall , Pages 419-454

Newsletter
How do sudden large losses in wealth affect labor force participation?

The authors assess whether the sudden large losses in household wealth due to recent declines in stock and home values have significantly affected the U.S. labor market. They find that the overall labor force participation rate would be 0.7 percentage points lower were it not for the declines in the values of stocks and houses over the 2006?10 period.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Jan

Discussion Paper
Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations

In the 1930s, Dunlop and Tarshis observed that the correlation between hours worked and the return to working is close to zero. This observation has become a litmus test by which macroeconomic models are judged. Existing real business cycle models fail this test dramatically. Based on this result, we argue that technology shocks cannot be the sole impulse driving post-war U.S. business cycles. We modify prototypical real business cycle models by allowing government consumption shocks to influence labor market dynamics in a way suggested by Aschauer (1985), Baro (1981, 1987), and Kormendi ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 24

Journal Article
The effects of industry employment shifts on U.S. wage structure, 1979-1995

The trend toward increasing U.S. wage inequality during the 1980s is well documented. I investigate the role of employment shifts from goods-producing to service-producing industries in contributing to increased inequality during the period 1979-1995. Earlier analyses revealed that average earnings are lower, and earnings inequality is higher, for service-producing workers than for goods-producing workers. For both reasons, and increasing share of service employment may increase earnings inequality. I analyses the effect of broad industry employment shifts by using a recently developed ...
Economic Review

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