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Keywords:Labor market 

Journal Article
Challenges with Estimating U Star in Real Time

Although the concept of the natural rate of employment, NAIRU, or ?U star? is used to measure the amount of slack in the labor market, it is an unobservable quantity that must be estimated using data currently available. This Commentary investigates the degree to which our estimates of U star at various points in the current business cycle have changed as real-time data have been revised and as more data points have accumulated. I find that the availability of additional data has contributed to a significant change in our estimates of U star at earlier points in the business cycle, a result ...
Economic Commentary , Issue November

Conference Paper
General discussion: the United States labor market: status quo or a new normal?

Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Journal Article
States still feel recession's effects two years after downturn's end

The U.S. economy entered a financial-market-driven recession in December 2007 from which it has yet to fully recover. The boom of the mid-2000s has been replaced with a stubborn national reality of high unemployment and sluggish output growth, with no clear indication when economic activity will return to more normal levels.
Southwest Economy , Issue Q4 , Pages 3-7

Conference Paper
The role of demand management policies in reducing unemployment

Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole , Issue Jan , Pages 99-167

Journal Article
A regional look at the role of house prices and labor market conditions in mortgage default

A linear fixed effects statistical model is used to study variations in foreclosure rates across metropolitan statistical areas in the Fifth Federal Reserve District. We find that variations in local labor market conditions and house prices do a remarkable job of capturing variation in foreclosure rates. We study the regional variation in foreclosure rates in more detail by examining two localities in our district: Prince William County, Virginia, and Charlotte, North Carolina. Finally, the model is used to provide forecasts of foreclosure rates conditioned on possible paths of labor market ...
Economic Quarterly , Volume 97 , Issue 1Q , Pages 1-43

Journal Article
Pulling up stakes: Have Americans lost the urge to move?

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Econ Focus , Volume 16 , Issue 2Q/3Q , Pages 17-19

What Does Labor Market Tightness Tell Us About the End of an Expansion?

We use a model based on the historical relationships between unemployment, inflation, and recessions, along with the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC),1 to examine the medium-term implications of current and projected unemployment rates for the U.S. economy. Our model predicts a low probability of a recession in the next two to three years based on SEP forecasts for additional labor market tightening over this horizon.
Chicago Fed Letter

Journal Article
The upside of down: postsecondary enrollment in the Great Recession

There have been large increases in two-year, four-year public, and four-year private college enrollment since the start of the Great Recession?slightly larger than expected based on the historical relationships between unemployment and enrollment, and significantly larger than expected if the unemployment rate had remained at 2007 levels. The increased enrollment may lead to a net lifetime benefit of roughly $3.3 billion overall, or $1,500 for each person who enrolled.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 36 , Issue Q IV

A principal components approach to estimating labor market pressure and its implications for inflation

We build a summary measure of labor market pressure that captures the common movement among a variety of labor market series. Obtained as the labor market series? first principal component, this measure explains a large portion of the variability of the underlying series. For this reason, it is a good summary indicator of labor market pressure. We show that the unemployment rate gap has tracked this summary measure closely over the past 35 years. At times, however, the summary measure and the unemployment rate gap have sent somewhat different signals. In terms of relying on the principal ...
Public Policy Brief

Macroeconomic policy and labor markets: lessons from Dale Mortensen’s research

On April 15?16, 2011, Northwestern University and the Chicago Fed co-sponsored a conference in honor of Dale Mortensen?a Northwestern University professor, Chicago Fed consultant, and co-recipient (along with Peter Diamond and Christopher Pissarides) of the 2010 Nobel Prize in economics, awarded for his analysis of markets with search frictions. This article summarizes one panel that presented work on the current state of the U.S. labor market, using Mortensen?s research.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Aug



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