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Speech
Perspectives on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy. University of Pittsburgh Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business and Deloitte LLP, Pittsburgh, PA
Let me begin by thanking Dean Arjang Assad of the Katz Graduate School of Business and Dmitri Shiry of Deloitte for inviting me to speak with you this evening. Dmitri performs important public service as a member of the board of directors of the Cleveland Fed?s Pittsburgh Branch, and it just so happens that this building formerly housed our branch. The regional nature of the Federal Reserve has served the country well for more than 100 years. It allows monetary policy decisions to take into account the diversity of the American economy and its people and helps ensure that those decisions ...
Speech
The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy 09.28.16 Greater Cleveland Partnership Middle-Market Forum, Cleveland, OH
It is a pleasure to welcome you to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Since my arrival in Cleveland over two years ago, I have seen first-hand the important role that the Greater Cleveland Partnership plays in supporting the growth of our regional economy and I am very proud to serve on its board. Of course, as president of one of the country?s 12 Federal Reserve Banks I have a keen interest in our regional economy. As we gather in the lobby of this historic building, it is hard not to think back to a time more than 100 years ago and applaud the Congressmen ? yes, they were all men back ...
Working Paper
Bad Investments and Missed Opportunities? Capital Flows to Asia and Latin America, 1950-2007
After World War II, international capital flowed into slow-growing Latin America rather than fast-growing Asia. This is surprising as, everything else equal, fast growth should imply high capital returns. This paper develops a capital flow accounting framework to quantify the role of different factor market distortions in producing these patterns. Surprisingly, we find that distortions in labor markets ? rather than domestic or international capital markets ? account for the bulk of these flows. Labor market distortions that indirectly depress investment incentives by lowering equilibrium ...
Speech
The National and Regional Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy, 11-30-2016; The African American Chamber of Commerce of Western Pennsylvania Annual Business Luncheon, Pittsburgh, PA
Today, I would like to focus on our monetary policy role by discussing my outlook for both the national and regional economy and my views on monetary policy. The economic expansion is now in its eighth year, and considerable progress has been and continues to be made on both parts of the Fed?s statutory goals of full employment and price stability. In my view, the underlying fundamentals supporting the economic expansion remain sound. As we gain more clarity about the policies that might be forthcoming, the FOMC will assess their effects, as well as the implications of economic and financial ...
Unpaid Absence from Work Because of COVID-19
As has been widely reported, the March employment report shed light on the early impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the U.S. labor market. One telling number is the official unemployment rate, which tallies the share of the labor force made up of people out of work (but who are looking for a job) plus those who have been laid off and expect to be recalled. The official unemployment rate increased from 3.5 percent in February to 4.4 percent in March. My own preferred measure is the share of the working-age population who are unemployed, working part-time because of economic conditions, or ...
Working Paper
Between College and That First Job: Designing and Evaluating Policies for Hiring Diversity
Despite widespread caste disparities, compensatory hiring policies remain absent from the Indian private sector. This paper employs novel administrative data on the job search from an elite college and evaluates policies to promote hiring diversity. Application reading, written aptitude tests, large group debates, and job choices do not explain caste disparities. Disparities arise primarily between the final round, comprising non-technical personal interviews, and job offers; the emergence closely parallels caste revelation. For promoting diversity, hiring subsidies — similar in spirit to ...
Working Paper
The Heterogeneous Impact of Referrals on Labor Market Outcomes
We document a new set of facts regarding the impact of referrals on labor market outcomes. Our results highlight the importance of distinguishing between different types of referrals—those from family and friends and those from business contacts—and different occupations. Then we develop an on-the-job search model that incorporates referrals and calibrate the model to key moments in the data. The calibrated model yields new insights into the roles played by different types of referrals in the match formation process and provides quantitative estimates of the effects of referrals on ...
Briefing
Will a Surge in Labor Force Participation Impede Unemployment Rate Improvement?
The labor force participation rate has been falling since 2000, a trend that accelerated somewhat during the recession of 2007-09. Some economists and journalists have questioned whether recent improvements in the labor market will cause non-participants to re-enter the labor force at a faster rate, thus offsetting job growth and impeding further declines in the unemployment rate. But recent worker-flow research suggests that this scenario is unlikely.
Speech
The Outlook for the Economy and Monetary Policy; 02.12.19; Financial Executives International and Xavier University, Cincinnati, OH
Many of you probably know that the Federal Reserve System comprises 12 regional Reserve Banks, distributed across the country, and the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C. But we also have 24 branch offices. This regional structure helps us to collect information from around the country so that our monetary policy decisions can take into account the diversity of the American economy and its people. I am very grateful for the many contacts throughout the Cleveland Fed?s District who generously share with us their insights into business activity, labor markets, and financial conditions. This ...