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Working Paper
Network Search: Climbing the Job Ladder Faster
We introduce an irregular network structure into a model of frictional, on-the-job search in which workers find jobs through their network connections or directly from firms. We show that jobs found through network search have wages that stochastically dominate those found through direct contact. Because we consider irregular networks, heterogeneity in the worker's position within the network leads to heterogeneity in wage and employment dynamics: better connected workers climb the job ladder faster and do not fall off it as far. These workers also pass along higher quality referrals, which ...
Working Paper
Bad Investments and Missed Opportunities? Capital Flows to Asia and Latin America, 1950-2007
After World War II, international capital flowed into slow-growing Latin America rather than fast-growing Asia. This is surprising as, everything else equal, fast growth should imply high capital returns. This paper develops a capital flow accounting framework to quantify the role of different factor market distortions in producing these patterns. Surprisingly, we find that distortions in labor markets ? rather than domestic or international capital markets ? account for the bulk of these flows. Labor market distortions that indirectly depress investment incentives by lowering equilibrium ...
Working Paper
Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
This note examines labor market performance across countries through the lens of Okun?s Law. We find that after the 1970s but prior to the global financial crisis of the 2000s, the Okun?s Law relationship between output and unemployment became more homogenous across countries. These changes presumably reflected institutional and technological changes. But, at least in the short term, the global financial crisis undid much of this convergence, in part because the affected countries adopted different labor market policies in response to the global demand shock.
Briefing
Will a Surge in Labor Force Participation Impede Unemployment Rate Improvement?
The labor force participation rate has been falling since 2000, a trend that accelerated somewhat during the recession of 2007-09. Some economists and journalists have questioned whether recent improvements in the labor market will cause non-participants to re-enter the labor force at a faster rate, thus offsetting job growth and impeding further declines in the unemployment rate. But recent worker-flow research suggests that this scenario is unlikely.
Speech
The National and Regional Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy, 11-30-2016; The African American Chamber of Commerce of Western Pennsylvania Annual Business Luncheon, Pittsburgh, PA
Today, I would like to focus on our monetary policy role by discussing my outlook for both the national and regional economy and my views on monetary policy. The economic expansion is now in its eighth year, and considerable progress has been and continues to be made on both parts of the Fed?s statutory goals of full employment and price stability. In my view, the underlying fundamentals supporting the economic expansion remain sound. As we gain more clarity about the policies that might be forthcoming, the FOMC will assess their effects, as well as the implications of economic and financial ...
Speech
Views on the Economy and Monetary Policy: Government Affairs Breakfast Series, Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce, Dayton, OH
Today, I will provide my assessment of economic developments, and my outlook for the economy and monetary policy. The task before Fed policymakers is to calibrate monetary policy to this healthy economy so that our congressionally mandated long-run goals of maximum employment and price stability are met. This means making sure we don?t get behind the curve given the economy?s strength but also making sure we don?t overreact to the positive outlook. To my mind, that means if economic conditions evolve as expected, we?ll need to make some further increases in interest rates this year and next ...
Speech
Perspectives on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy. University of Pittsburgh Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business and Deloitte LLP, Pittsburgh, PA
Let me begin by thanking Dean Arjang Assad of the Katz Graduate School of Business and Dmitri Shiry of Deloitte for inviting me to speak with you this evening. Dmitri performs important public service as a member of the board of directors of the Cleveland Fed?s Pittsburgh Branch, and it just so happens that this building formerly housed our branch. The regional nature of the Federal Reserve has served the country well for more than 100 years. It allows monetary policy decisions to take into account the diversity of the American economy and its people and helps ensure that those decisions ...
Speech
The Outlook for the Economy and Monetary Policy; 02.12.19; Financial Executives International and Xavier University, Cincinnati, OH
Many of you probably know that the Federal Reserve System comprises 12 regional Reserve Banks, distributed across the country, and the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C. But we also have 24 branch offices. This regional structure helps us to collect information from around the country so that our monetary policy decisions can take into account the diversity of the American economy and its people. I am very grateful for the many contacts throughout the Cleveland Fed?s District who generously share with us their insights into business activity, labor markets, and financial conditions. This ...
Speech
The U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy 07.13.16 Australian Business Economists, Sydney, Australia
As an economist and policymaker, I appreciate hearing the perspectives of market and business economists. Just as the different views expressed by my colleagues around the monetary policy table help to inform my own policy views, the insights of economists like you help to shape my own economic outlook. The chance to hear perspectives from this side of the Pacific is particularly welcome at this time because we live in a global economy. Today, I will focus my remarks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. To help put the discussion into context, I will start with a brief overview of the ...