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Flowing into Employment: Implications for the Participation Rate
Jos Mustre-del-Ro, Michael Redmond, and William Xu find more prime-age individuals are flowing into employment from outside the labor force, though effects on the participation rate could be limited by educational attainment.
Human capital dynamics and the U.S. labor market
KC Fed LMCI Implies the Labor Market Is Closer to a Full Recovery than the Unemployment Rate Alone Suggests
By consolidating information from a broad range of labor market variables, the Kansas City Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) provide a consistent gauge of labor market tightness. Adjusting the unemployment rate to incorporate information from the LMCI suggests the labor market is closer to a full recovery than the unemployment rate alone implies.
Labor Market Tightness across the United States since the Great Recession
Though labor market statistics are often reported and discussed at the national level, conditions can vary quite a bit across individual states. We explore differences in these conditions before and after the Great Recession using a ratio of the number of unemployed workers to job vacancies. We show that the intensity of the adverse effects of the recession and the strength of the recovery varied geographically at all points in the process. We also demonstrate that wage growth is delayed until the ratio of unemployed workers to job vacancies returns to prerecession levels.
The Effects of the “Great Resignation” on Labor Market Slack and Inflation
The fraction of Americans switching their jobs has been increasing at a fast pace in the past 18 months, reaching its highest level on record. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, more than 4.5 million people voluntarily left their jobs in November 2021—the largest figure in the past two decades. This period has been dubbed the Great Resignation. At the same time, wages and salaries have accelerated considerably and by the end of 2021, inflation had hit its highest level since 1982.
The Ins and Outs of Self-Employment: An Estimate of Business Cycle and Trend Effects
We examine quarterly microlevel data on labor market transitions taken from the Current Population Survey from 1990 to 2014 to estimate how the business cycle affects transitions into and out of self-employment from other labor market states. We control for individual demographics and occupational influences in our analysis to better pinpoint the effect of demand growth on these transitions. We find that changes in demand conditions substantially influence the marginal rate of transition into and out of self-employment from other labor market states, after taking into account demographic and ...
KC Fed LMCI Suggests Recent Inflation Is Not Due to the Tight Labor Market
A tight labor market tends to raise wages and lower unemployment, but an overly tight labor market can cause inflation. Labor market momentum, as measured by the Kansas City Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI), can signal whether the current level of activity in labor markets is inflationary.
How the Pandemic Has Reshaped Economic Inclusion in the United States
The pandemic brought unusually large and novel changes to the US labor market. Some sectors lost half or nearly half of their employment; others moved their workforces to home settings. Some workers lost their jobs, some left their jobs temporarily, and some left the workforce altogether. These changes have affected different demographic groups differently. We investigate how the pandemic affected workers of different ages, racial or ethnic backgrounds, and gender and the degree to which these effects have persisted after a year of recovery.
The Outlook for the Economy and Monetary Policy; 02.13.19; University of Kentucky Gatton College of Business and Economics, 2019 Economic Outlook Conference, Lexington, KY
The Cleveland Fed is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks distributed across the country that, along with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., comprise the Federal Reserve System. This regional structure helps us to collect information from around the country so that our monetary policy decisions can take into account the diversity of the American economy and its people. I am very grateful for the many contacts throughout our District who generously share with us their insights into business activity, labor markets, and financial conditions. This timely information is collected through our ...
Upfront: New from the Richmond Fed’s Regional Matters blog
Roll up of several Regional Matters Blog Posts