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Without Immigration, U.S. Economy Will Struggle to Grow
Smith, Chloe N.; Orrenius, Pia M. (2020-04-09)
Slowing labor force growth is the product of a number of factors—the aging of the U.S. population, retiring baby boomers and declining birth rates. But another element is immigration.
Dallas Fed Economics

A Natural Approach to Estimating the ‘Natural Rate’ of Unemployment
Morris, Michael; Tracy, Joseph; Rich, Robert W. (2019-10-08)
The unemployment rate is a widely viewed gauge of U.S. labor market slack or tightness. Because of structural changes to the labor market over time, assessments about slack/tightness require a reference point called the “natural rate of unemployment.”
Dallas Fed Economics

Pandemic Economic Lifeline: Taxes on Consumption, Labor that Fund Stay-at-Home Subsidies
Hur, Sewon (2021-01-12)
Stay-at-home subsidies funded by taxes on consumption and labor—activities that contribute to viral transmission—can simultaneously reduce deaths and increase output.
Dallas Fed Economics

Real-Time Population Survey Suggests U.S. Job Losses Slowed in Early May
Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam; Mertens, Karel (2020-05-22)
Survey results for the week of May 10 suggest further declines in employment and an increase in unemployment relative to the week of April 26 – May 2, though both changes are within the survey’s margin of error.
Dallas Fed Economics

Pandemic Pushed the U.S. into Recession … and Hourly Wages Rose?
Howard, Sean; Tracy, Joseph; Rich, Robert W. (2021-02-09)
The onset of COVID-19 in spring 2020 prompted an unprecedented rapid rise in the unemployment rate. However, a popular and widely cited wage measure—average hourly earnings (AHE)—rose sharply as the health crisis grew.
Dallas Fed Economics

Domestic Migration to Texas Slows as National Labor Markets Tighten
Abraham, Alexander T.; Phillips, Keith R. (2019-09-03)
Despite a strong economy and historically low unemployment rates in Texas, net domestic migration to Texas from other states has slowed since 2015.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
Monetary policy and the new normal
Dotsey, Michael (2016-01)
Is the economy in for a prolonged spell of slow growth, as some believe, or a burst of innovation and productivity? In either event, policymakers must pay close attention to productivity trends.
Economic Insights , Volume 1 , Issue 1 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Monetary Policy Shocks and Aggregate Supply
Van Zandweghe, Willem (2015-07)
Willem Van Zandweghe examines whether monetary policy has had long-lasting effects on labor productivity and potential output.
Economic Review , Issue Q III , Pages 31-56

Hours Worked by Women Age 55 to 61 Confound Labor Market Analysis
Gross, Andrew; Zarazaga, Carlos E. (2019-11-26)
The seemingly anomalous low LIUR of one particular demographic group poses a challenge for assessing the extent to which the U.S. economy is currently close to full employment.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Can Reputation Discipline the Gig Economy? Experimental Evidence from an Online Labor Market
Sojourner, Aaron; Benson, Alan; Umyarov, Akhmed (2018-12-28)
Just as employers face uncertainty when hiring workers, workers also face uncertainty when accepting employment, and bad employers may opportunistically depart from expectations, norms, and laws. However, prior research in economics and information sciences has focused sharply on the employer?s problem of identifying good workers rather than vice versa. This issue is especially pronounced in markets for gig work, including online labor markets, where platforms are developing strategies to help workers identify good employers. We build a theoretical model for the value of such reputation ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 16

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