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Journal Article
An empirical investigation of fluctuations in manufacturing sales and inventory within a sticky-price framework

Economic Quarterly , Issue Sum , Pages 61-84

Working Paper
Input and output inventories

This paper builds and estimates a new model of firm behavior that includes decisions to order, use, and stock input materials in a stage-of-fabrication environment with either gross production or value added technology. The model extends the traditional linear-quadratic model of output (finished goods) inventories by incorporating delivery and usage of input materials plus input inventory investment - features which largely have been ignored in the literature. Stylized facts indicate that input inventories are empirically more important than output inventories, especially in business cycle ...
Working Papers , Paper 97-7

Working Paper
Market run-ups, market freezes, inventories, and leverage

This paper is superseded by Working Paper No. 13-14.> We study trade between a buyer and a seller who have existing inventories of assets similar to those being traded. We analyze how these inventories affect trade, information dissemination, and prices. We show that when traders? initial leverages are moderate, inventories increase price and trade volume (a market ?run-up?), but when leverages are high, trade is impossible (a market ?freeze?). Our analysis predicts a pattern of trade in which prices and volumes first increase, and then markets break down. Moreover, the presence of competing ...
Working Papers , Paper 12-8

Modeling inventories over the business cycle

We evaluate two leading models of aggregate fluctuations with inventories in general equilibrium: the (S,s) model and the stockout avoidance model. Each is judged by its ability to explain the observed magnitude of inventories in the U.S. economy, alongside other empirical regularities such as the procyclicality of inventory investment and its positive correlation with sales. We find that the (S,s) model is far more consistent with the behavior of aggregate inventories in the postwar U.S. when aggregate fluctuations arise from technology, rather than preference, shocks. The converse holds for ...
Staff Report , Paper 343

Journal Article
The increasing importance of retailers' inventories

Although inventory--sales (IS) ratios and inventory volatility have declined somewhat since the early 1980s, little evidence supports the view that declining IS ratios are associated with declines in inventory investment volatility. In the retail sector, IS ratios have risen and inventory investment volatility has, at best, not increased, pointing to a more significant role in future cyclical fluctuations.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 22 , Issue Q III

Working Paper
Estimating the linear-quadratic inventory model: maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 93-11

Journal Article
Another soft inventory landing?

National Economic Trends , Issue Dec

Working Paper
Inventories and output volatility

Analyzing disaggregate data on inventories and sales from the U.S. manufacturing and trade sector between 1960 and 1997 yields four main findings. First, I find that IS ratios are somewhat lower after 1984: 1 among durable goods manufacturers and durable goods retailers outside the motor vehicle industry. Second, I find that industries which have lowered their IS ratios tend to be those in which the variance of output relative to sale has declined. Third, by decomposing the variance of output into its components, I find that the variance of sales is less important, and the variance of ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-98-21

Working Paper
What Inventory Behavior Tells Us About How Business Cycles Have Changed

Beginning in the mid-1980s, the nature of U.S. business cycles changed in important ways, as made evident by distinctive shifts in the comovement and relative volatilities of key economic aggregates. These include labor productivity, hours, output, and inventories. Unlike the widely documented change in absolute volatility over that period, known as the Great Moderation, these shifts in comovement and relative volatilities persist into the Great Recession. To understand these changes, we exploit the fact that inventory data are informative about sources of business cycles. Specifically, they ...
Working Paper , Paper 14-6

Journal Article
Did speculation drive oil prices? futures market points to fundamentals

Oil market speculation became an especially popular topic when the price of crude tripled over 18 months to a record high $145 per barrel in July 2008. Of particular interest to many is whether speculators drove oil prices beyond what fundamentals would have otherwise justified. We explore this issue over two Economic Letters. In this article, we look for evidence in the futures market that would signal speculation primarily drove prices. In our companion Economic Letter, we examine the physical market.
Economic Letter , Volume 6



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