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Keywords:Interest rates 

Working Paper
The Effect of Deficit-Reduction Laws on Real Interest Rates

This paper uses news reports about two deficit-reduction laws of the past decade to identify days when expected fiscal policy clearly became more or less expansionary. The paper also proposes a technique for identifying whether the real interest rate increased or decreased on those days, based on changes in the nominal interest rate, the exchange rate, commodity prices, and stock prices. As economic theory predicts, higher expected government spending and budget deficits raised real interest rates and the value of the dollar, while lower expected spending and deficits reduced real rates and ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1996-44

Conference Paper
Tax reform and financial markets

Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 29 , Pages 153-186

Journal Article
On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads

Economists have long understood that financial market variables contain considerable information about the future of the economy. Recently a number of researchers have pointed out that interest rates and interest rate spreads--that is, differences between interest rates on alternative financial assets--can be effective predictors of the economy. ; This finding raises a number of questions, possibly the most important being why interest rates and spreads predict the course of the economy so well. The authors tentative conclusion is that the spread between commercial paper and Treasury bill ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Nov , Pages 51-68

Journal Article
Interest rate structure and the credit risk of swaps

Swap contracts have grown tremendously in the last decade. Most are interest-rate swaps, the simplest being an exchange of one partys fixed-rate interest payments for anothers floating-rate payments. Swaps can lower borrowing costs for both parties as well as provide a tool for managing interest-rate risk. As the market for swaps grows and matures, understanding and measuring the accompanying credit risk remains a concern of bankers, regulators, and corporate users ; The credit risk of swaps arises when one party defaults and interest rates have changed in such a way that the other party can ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 23-34

Journal Article
Financial assets, interest rates, and money growth

New England Economic Review , Issue Mar , Pages 17-30

Journal Article
Interest rate swaps: use, risk, and prices

New England Economic Review , Issue Nov , Pages 22-32

Journal Article
Monetary policy and the behavior of long-term real interest rates

A time-honored description of the "monetary transmission channel" suggests that the Fed controls the federal funds rate, which affects the rates on longer-term credit market instruments, which affect the expected real (inflation-adjusted) rates on longer-term instruments, which affect real spending on interest-sensitive goods, which affects unemployment and inflation. And yet one key link in the chain, the expected real long-term interest rate, is not observable.> This article explores the link between the behavior of monetary policy and inferences about the behavior of the expected ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Sep , Pages 39-52

Journal Article
Yield curve forecasts of inflation: a cautionary tale

Long-term interest rates that are unusually high relative to shortterm interest rates are often seen to reflect market expectations of increasing inflation. Given that the term structure of interest rates (also called the yield curve) reacts to inflation expectations, does it do so in a reasonable manner? Does the term structure embody inflation forecasts that bear a sensible relationship to the iiaflation that in fact occurs? ; This article reviews the theoretical link between the term structure and inflation expectations, and then it provides empirical evidence on the link in light of the ...
New England Economic Review , Issue May , Pages 3-16

Journal Article
Has antitrust policy in banking become obsolete?

The authors analyze the effect of bank mergers on deposit interest rates, using data on banks responding to the Federal Reserve's Monthly Survey of Selected Deposits over an 11-year period. Their results suggest that banks exercise market power in pricing money market deposits and CD's in their local markets.
New England Economic Review , Issue Mar , Pages 13-26

Journal Article
Inflation, taxes, and interest rates

New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 3-14



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