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Keywords:Interest rates 

Journal Article
U.S. monetary policy: an introduction - Part 4: How does the Fed decide the appropriate setting for the policy instrument?

This is the last of four issues devoted to our updated and expanded Q&A on monetary policy: (1) "How is the Federal Reserve structured?" and "What are the tools of U.S. monetary policy?" (2) "What are the goals of U.S. monetary policy?" (3) "How does monetary policy affect the U.S. economy?" and (4) "How does the Fed decide the appropriate setting for the policy instrument?" The revised text will appear in a pamphlet soon.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Does the inverted yield curve signal a recession?

Financial Letters , Issue Mar

Journal Article
Recent financial deregulation and the interest elasticity of M1 demand

Economic Review , Volume 72 , Issue Jul , Pages 13-24

Journal Article
Monetary policy actions and long-term interest rates

It is generally believed that monetary policy actions are transmitted to the economy through their effect on market interest rates. According to this standard view, a restrictive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve pushes up both short-term and long-term interest rates, leading to less spending by interest-sensitive sectors of the economy such as housing, consumer durable goods, and business fixed investment. Conversely, an easier policy results in lower interest rates that stimulate economic activity. Unfortunately, empirical studies and the observed behavior of interest rates appear to ...
Economic Review , Volume 80 , Issue Q IV , Pages 73-89

Journal Article
Solving the mystery of high credit card rates

FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
High real interest rates in the aftermath of disinflation: is it a lack of credibility?

High real interest rates have been observed in many countries for several months after the adoption of disinflation programs. While they may reflect primarily a liquidity crunch, high ex post real interest rates can also be explained in terms of an ex post error in inflation expectations that reflects a lack of credibility of the low-inflation policy. The latter hypothesis is tested using data for Argentina, Israel, and Mexico during the implementation of the stabilization programs in the mid-1980s.
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 543

Journal Article
Has the U.S. economy become less interest rate sensitive?

Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao investigate shifts in the economy?s sensitivity to interest rates by examining how total employment responds to changes in monetary policy.
Macro Bulletin

Working Paper
Term structure estimation with survey data on interest rate forecasts

The estimation of dynamic no-arbitrage term structure models with a flexible specification of the market price of risk is beset by a severe small-sample problem arising from the highly persistent nature of interest rates. We propose using survey forecasts of a short-term interest rate as additional input to the estimation to overcome the problem. The three-factor pure-Gaussian model thus estimated with the U.S. Treasury term structure for the 1990-2003 period generates a stable estimate of the expected path of the short rate, reproduces the well-known stylized patterns in the expectations ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2005-48

Journal Article
Predicting interest rates: a comparison of professional and market- based forecasts

Review , Issue Mar , Pages 9-15

Working Paper
Productivity shocks, investment, and the real interest rate

I analyze the effects of a favorable shift in expected future productivity on the current level of investment and the real interest rate. In a standard RBC model, an increase in expected future productivity raises the real rate, but decreases the current level of investment for plausible parameter values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption. However, it is shown that such a conclusion is unwarranted when nominal rigidities are introduced into the analysis. In contrast with the flexible-price case, the favorable shift in future productivity can lead to an increase in ...
Working Papers , Paper 99-2



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