How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we go now? a perspective from the U.S. experience
This paper advances the hypothesis that the transition from there-is-little-central-banks-can-do-to-control-inflation to inflation targeting occurred because central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, demonstrated that central banks can control inflation rather than a consequence of marked improvement in the professions understanding of how monetary policy controls inflation. As consequence, monetary theorists and central bankers have returned to a Phillips curve framework for formulating and evaluating the monetary policy. I suggest that the return to the Phillips curve framework ...
Should the central bank be concerned about housing prices?
Housing is an important component of the consumption basket. Since both rental prices and goods prices are sticky, the literature suggests that optimal monetary policy should stabilize both types of prices, with the optimal weight on rental inflation proportional to the housing expenditure share. In a two-sector DSGE model with sticky rental prices and goods prices, however, we find that the optimal weight on rental inflation in the Taylor rule is small?much smaller than that implied by the housing expenditure share. Since production of housing services uses the stocks of housing intensively, ...
Are Long-Term Inflation Expectations Well Anchored in Brazil, Chile and Mexico?
In this paper, we consider whether long-term inflation expectations have become better anchored in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. We do so using survey-based measures as well as financial market-based measures of long-term inflation expectations, where we construct the market-based measures from daily prices on nominal and inflation-linked bonds. This paper is the first to examine the evidence from Brazil and Mexico, making use of the fact that markets for longterm government debt have become better developed over the past decade. We find that inflation expectations have become much better ...
The Continuing Validity of Monetary Policy Autonomy Under Floating Exchange Rates
Economic research in recent years has given considerable prominence to the issue of whether a floating exchange rate provides autonomy with regard to monetary policy to a central bank whose economy is highly open. In particular, Rey (2016) has argued that inflation-targeting advanced economies lack monetary policy autonomy by pointing to results suggesting that U.S. monetary policy shocks matter for the behavior of key financial variables in these economies. In contrast, it is argued in this paper that monetary autonomy does prevail in inflation-targeting advanced economies, notwithstanding ...
On Targeting Frameworks and Optimal Monetary Policy
Speed limit policy, a monetary policy strategy that focuses on stabilizing inflation and the change in the output gap, consistently delivers better welfare outcomes than flexible inflation targeting or flexible price level targeting in empirical New Keynesian models when policymakers lack the ability to commit to future policies. Even if the policymaker can commit under an inflation targeting strategy, the discretionary speed limit policy performs better for most empirically plausible model parameterizations from a normative perspective.
Monetary policy in a forward-looking input-output economy
This paper examines the implications for monetary policy of sticky prices in both final and intermediate goods in a New Keynesian model. Both optimal policy under commitment and discretionary policy, which is the minimization of a simple loss function, are studied. Consumer utility losses under alternative simple loss functions are compared, including their robustness to model and shock misperceptions, and parameter uncertainty. Targeting inflation in both consumer and intermediate goods performs better than targeting a single price index; price-level targeting of both consumer and ...
Modern macroeconomics in practice: how theory is shaping policy
Theoretical advances in macroeconomics made in the last three decades have had a major influence on macroeconomic policy analysis. Moreover, over the last several decades, the United States and other countries have undertaken a variety of policy changes that are precisely what macroeconomic theory of the last 30 years suggests. The three key developments that have shaped macroeconomic policy analysis are the Lucas critique of policy evaluation due to Robert Lucas, the time inconsistency critique of discretionary policy due to Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott, and the development of ...
Monetary Policy and Dutch Disease: The Case of Price and Wage Rigidity
We study a model of a small open economy that specializes in the production of commodities and that exhibits frictions in the setting of both prices and wages. We study the optimal response of monetary and exchange rate policy following a positive (negative) shock to the price of the exportable that generates an appreciation (depreciation) of the local currency. According to the calibrated version of the model, deviations from full price stability can generate welfare gains that are equivalent to almost 0.5% of lifetime consumption, as long as there is a significant degree of rigidity in ...
Optimal monetary policy under sudden stops
Emerging market economies often face sudden stops in capital inflows or reduced access to the international capital market. This paper analyzes what monetary policy should accomplish in such an event. Optimal monetary policy induces higher interest rates and exchange rate depreciation. The interest rate hike discourages borrowing and consumption, mitigating the impact of the increased cost of borrowing. The exchange rate depreciation provides a boost to export revenues, reducing the need for, but not averting, a domestic recession. The paper shows that the arrival of the sudden stop further ...
Food or commodity price shocks and inflation: a central banker's perspective
A speech presented at "Food and Water - Basic Challenges to International Stability," 2009 Global Conference Series (Part 4), (Global Interdependence Center (GIC) in partnership with the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Singapore, November 19, 2009