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Journal Article
The parts are more than the whole: separating goods and services to predict core inflation
Rich, Robert W.; Linder, M. Henry; Peach, Richard (2013-08)
Economists have not been altogether successful in their efforts to forecast ?core? inflation?an inflation measure that typically excludes volatile food and energy prices. One possible explanation is that the models used to make these forecasts fail to distinguish the forces influencing price changes in core services from those affecting price changes in core goods. While core services inflation depends on long-run inflation expectations and the degree of slack in the labor market, core goods inflation depends on short-run inflation expectations and import prices. By using a composite model ...
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 19 , Issue Aug

Journal Article
A framework for the pursuit of price stability
McDonough, William J. (1997-08)
Based on remarks delivered before the Annual Financial Services of the New York Bankers Association on March 21, 1996, and the Economic Club of New York on October 2, 1996.
Economic Policy Review , Volume 3 , Issue Aug , Pages 1-7

Journal Article
A comparison of measures of core inflation
Rich, Robert W.; Steindel, Charles (2007-12)
The ability of central banks to differentiate between permanent and transitory price movements is critical for the conduct of monetary policy. The importance of gauging the persistence of price changes in a timely manner has led to the development of measures of underlying, or ?core,? inflation that are designed to remove transitory price changes from aggregate inflation data. Given the usefulness of this information to policymakers, there is a surprising lack of consensus on a preferred measure of U.S. core inflation. This article examines several proposed measures of core inflation?the ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 13 , Issue Dec , Pages 19-38

Journal Article
The microstructure of the TIPS market
Fleming, Michael J.; Krishnan, Neel (2012-03)
The potential advantages from the introduction of Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) in 1997 have not been fully realized, mainly because TIPS are less liquid than nominal Treasury securities. The lack of liquidity is thought to adversely affect TIPS prices relative to prices of nominal securities, offsetting the benefits that come from TIPS having no inflation risk. Despite the importance of TIPS liquidity and the market?s large size, there is virtually no quantitative evidence on the securities? liquidity. This article sheds light on this phenomenon using novel tick data from ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 18 , Issue Mar , Pages 27-45

Journal Article
Policy analysis using DSGE models: an introduction
Rao, Krishna; Sbordone, Argia M.; Tambalotti, Andrea; Walsh, Kieran (2010-10)
Many central banks have come to rely on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, or DSGE, models to inform their economic outlook and to help formulate their policy strategies. But while their use is familiar to policymakers and academics, these models are typically not well known outside these circles. This article introduces the basic structure, logic, and application of the DSGE framework to a broader public by providing an example of its use in monetary policy analysis. The authors present and estimate a simple New Keynesian DSGE model, highlighting the core features that this basic ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 16 , Issue Oct , Pages 23-43

Journal Article
The historical and recent behavior of goods and services inflation
Antoniades, Alexis; Peach, Richard; Rich, Robert W. (2004-12)
Since the late 1990s, the combination of relatively high services inflation and declining goods prices has produced a record-level gap in these inflation rates. Some commentators argue that if the gap between services and goods inflation continues to expand in this manner, the outcome will be either faster overall inflation or deflation. This article examines the relationship between these divergent inflation rates from 1967 to 2002. The authors find that while the level of each inflation rate is subject to permanent shifts, the gap between services inflation and goods inflation over time ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Dec , Pages 19-31

Journal Article
Trading activity and price transparency in the inflation swap market
Sporn, John; Fleming, Michael J. (2013-05)
The issues of liquidity and price transparency in derivatives markets have taken on greater import given regulatory efforts under way to improve their transparency. To date, the lack of transaction data has impeded the understanding of how the inflation swap and other derivatives markets operate. This article broadens that understanding by using a novel transaction data set to examine trading activity and price transparency in the quickly growing U.S. inflation swap market. The authors find that the market appears reasonably liquid and transparent, despite its over-the-counter nature and ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 19 , Issue May , Pages 45-57

Journal Article
Is there an inflation puzzle?
Lown, Cara S.; Rich, Robert W. (1997-12)
Why has U.S. inflation failed to accelerate despite six years of continuing economic expansion. The authors investigate whether compensation growth has played a role, either as a temporary restraint on inflation or as the underlying source of a new inflation regime. They offer two pieces of evidence suggesting that compensation growth has in fact acted as a temporary curb on rising prices. First, they show that the forecasting performance of a traditional Phillips curve model begins to break down in late 1993. When a measure of compensation growth is incorporated, however, the stability of ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 3 , Issue Dec , Pages 51-77

Journal Article
Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries
Posen, Adam S.; Mishkin, Frederic S. (1997-08)
In recent years, a number of central banks have chosen to orient their monetary policy toward the achievement of numerical inflation targets. This study examines the experience of the first three countries to adopt an inflation-targeting strategy--New Zealand, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It also considers the German experience with a monetary targeting scheme that incorporated many elements of inflation targeting even earlier. The authors find that the countries adopting a numerical inflation target have successfully maintained low inflation rates. Other benefits of inflation targeting ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 3 , Issue Aug , Pages 9-110

Journal Article
The commodity-consumer price connection: fact or fable?
Blomberg, S. Brock; Harris, Ethan S. (1995-10)
The recent surge in commodity prices has rekindled interest in their power to predict consumer price inflation. But is this interest warranted? In examining the empirical relationship between commodity prices and consumer price inflation, this article finds that commodities' reputation as useful leading indicators of inflation is actually based more on fable than fact. Testing eight commonly used indexes, the authors conclude that although commodities had some predictive power in the past, the commodity-consumer price connection has broken down in the more recent period. They argue that this ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 1 , Issue Oct , Pages 21-38

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