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Keywords:Inflation (Finance) 

Conference Paper
Hysteresis in unemployment

Hysteresis is central to long-run unemployment movements in many countries. This essay addresses two broad issues. The first is whether there is clear evidence of hysteresis effects. To put it differently, can we reject the hypothesis that the NAIRU, and hence the long run behavior of unemployment, is independent of aggregate demand? The second broad issue is the nature of hysteresis. Through what mechanisms do short-run unemployment movements influence the NAIRU? What determines the strength of these effects in different countries and time periods? What are the implications for monetary ...
Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Discussion Paper
Inertial Taylor rules: the benefit of signaling future policy

We trace the consequences of an energy shock on the economy under two different monetary policy rules: a standard Taylor rule where the Fed responds to inflation and the output gap; and a Taylor rule with inertia where the Fed moves slowly to the rate predicted by the standard rule. We show that with both sticky wages and sticky prices, the outcome of an inertial Taylor rule is superior to that of the standard rule, in the sense that inflation is lower and output is higher following an adverse energy shock. However, if prices alone are sticky, things are less clear and the standard rule ...
Policy Discussion Papers , Issue Apr

Speech
Monetary policy, money, and inflation

Presentation to the Western Economic Association International, San Francisco, CA, July 2, 2012
Speech , Paper 107

Newsletter
Economy on cruise control in 2010 and 2011

According to participants in the Chicago Fed?s annual Automotive Outlook Symposium, solid economic growth is forecasted for the nation this year and in 2011. Inflation is expected to remain contained, but the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain high. Light vehicle sales are forecasted to improve moderately in 2010 and 2011.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Aug

Journal Article
What are the costs of disinflation?

Business Review , Issue May , Pages 3-16

Journal Article
A monetarist model of inflationary process

An abstract for this article is not available.
Economic Review , Volume 61 , Issue Nov , Pages 13-23

Journal Article
Measuring inflation

FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Evaluating unconventional monetary policies -why aren’t they more effective?

We use a general equilibrium finance model that features explicit government purchases of private debts to shed light on some of the principal working mechanisms of the Federal Reserve?s large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) and their macroeconomic effects. Our model predicts that unless private asset purchases are highly persistent and extremely large (on the order of more than 50% of annual GDP), money injections through LSAP cannot effectively boost aggregate output and employment even if inflation is fully anchored and the real interest rate significantly reduced. Our framework also sheds ...
Working Papers , Paper 2013-028

Journal Article
On the sources of movements in inflation expectations : a few insights from a VAR model

Using a VAR model that includes a survey measure of expected inflation, this article investigates the responses of expected inflation to temporary shocks to macroeconomic variables during three sample periods, 1953:1--1979:1, 1979:2--2001:1, and 1985:1--2007:1. Shocks to actual inflation, commodity prices, and expected inflation itself have been three major sources of movement in expected inflation, together explaining over 80 percent of the variability in expected inflation. Positive shocks to actual inflation, commodity prices, and expected inflation itself lead to increases in expected ...
Economic Quarterly , Volume 94 , Issue Spr , Pages 121-146

Journal Article
Monetary policy with interest on reserves

Since the fall of 2008, the amount of outstanding reserves on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has increased from about 100 billion dollars to more than 1 trillion dollars. There is some concern that the magnitude of outstanding reserves might affect the ability of the Federal Reserve to conduct monetary policy through an interest rate policy. In this article I argue that the ability of the Federal Reserve to pay interest on reserves, also introduced in the fall of 2008, should lessen this concern. For an appropriately modified baseline model of money, I show that, with the payment of ...
Economic Quarterly , Volume 96 , Issue 2Q , Pages 153-177

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