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Working Paper
Time-varying U.S. inflation dynamics and the New-Keynesian Phillips curve
Lansing, Kevin J.
(2006)
This paper introduces a form of boundedly-rational expectations into an otherwise standard New-Keynesian Phillips curve. The representative agent's forecast rule is optimal (in the sense of minimizing mean squared forecast errors), conditional on a perceived law of motion for inflation and observed moments of the inflation time series. The perceived law of motion allows for both temporary and permanent shocks to inflation, the latter intended to capture the possibility of evolving shifts in the central bank's inflation target. In this case, the agent's optimal forecast rule defined by the ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper 2006-15
Report
Establishing credibility: evolving perceptions of the European Central Bank
Goldberg, Linda S.; Klein, Michael W.
(2005)
The perceptions of a central bank's inflation aversion may reflect institutional structure or, more dynamically, the history of its policy decisions. In this paper, we present a novel empirical framework that uses high-frequency data to test for persistent variation in market perceptions of central bank inflation aversion. The first years of the European Central Bank (ECB) provide a natural experiment for this model. Tests of the effect of news announcements on the slope of yield curves in the euro area and on the euro-dollar exchange rate suggest that the market's perception of the policy ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 231
Journal Article
Implications of structural changes in the U.S. economy for pricing behavior and inflation dynamics
Willis, Jonathan L.
(2003-01)
Some key features of the behavior of inflation in the United States appear to have changed in the past 20 years, with potentially important implications for forecasters and policymakers. Recent studies have provided evidence of a decline in both the variability and persistence of inflation. ; Such shifts in the behavior or dynamics of inflation would necessitate changes in the economic relationships used by policymakers and economists to assess current conditions, forecast key economic indicators, and determine the implications of policy changes for future economic activity. ; Willis examines ...
Economic Review
, Volume 88
, Issue Q I
, Pages 5-27
Speech
The road to recovery: Hudson Valley
Dudley, William
(2011)
Remarks at the State University of New York at New Paltz, New Paltz, New York.
Speech
, Paper 57
Journal Article
Short-term headline-core inflation dynamics
Mehra, Yash P.; Reilly, Devin
(2009-07)
This article investigates empirically short-term dynamics between headline and core measures of consumer price index and personal consumption expenditure inflation over three sample periods: 1959:1-1979:1, 1979:2-2001:2, and 1985:1-2007:2. Headline and core inflation measures are co-integrated, suggesting long-run co-movement. However, the ways these two variables adjust to each other in the short run and generate co-movement have changed across these sample periods. In the pre-1979 sample period, when a positive gap opens up with headline inflation rising above core inflation, the gap is ...
Economic Quarterly
, Volume 95
, Issue Sum
, Pages 289-313
Working Paper
Wicksell's monetary framework and dynamic stability
Humphrey, Thomas M.; Graboyes, Robert F.
(1990)
Traditionally, central banks seeking to stabilize general prices have followed policies similar to those advocated by Knut Wicksell: when prices are higher that desired, raise interest rates to exert downward pressure on prices, and conversely. Despite the historical predominance of interest rate-based monetary policies, analysts frequently focus on how prices are affected by control of the money stock (or its high-powered base). In those cases where they do examine the relationship between interest rates and prices, they mostly do so in a Keynesian framework rather than a Wicksellian one. ...
Working Paper
, Paper 90-07
Journal Article
Time-inconsistent monetary policies: recent research
Dennis, Richard
(2003)
This Economic Letter looks at time-inconsistency, describing why the same mechanisms that can lead to higher average inflation also can hamper policymakers' efforts to keep inflation stable.
FRBSF Economic Letter
Monograph
Some current controversies in the theory of inflation
Humphrey, Thomas M.
(1979)
Originally appeared in the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Economic Review, July/August 1976
Monograph
Working Paper
An alternative method of estimating the Cagan money demand function in hyperinflation under rational expectations
Goodfriend, Marvin
(1979)
This paper contains a description and implementation of a new strategy for estimating the Cagan money demand function under rational expectations.
Working Paper
, Paper 79-05
Working Paper
The bond rate and actual future inflation
Mehra, Yash P.
(1997)
The long-term bond rate is cointegrated with the actual one-period inflation rate during two sample periods, 1961Q1 to 1979Q3 and 1961Q1 to 1995Q4. This result indicates that in the long run the bond rate and actual inflation move together. The nature of short-run dynamic adjustments between these variables has, however, changed over time. In the pre-1979 period, when the bond rate rose above the one-period inflation rate, actual inflation accelerated. In the post-1979 period, however, the bond rate reverted back and actual inflation did not accelerate. Thus, the bond rate signaled future ...
Working Paper
, Paper 97-03
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