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Journal Article
A new approach to gauging inflation expectations
Haubrich, Joseph G. (2009)
This Economic Commentary explains a relatively new method of uncovering inflation expectations, real interest rates, and an inflation-risk premium. It provides estimates of expected inflation from one month to 30 years, an estimate of the inflation-risk premium, and a measure of real interest rates, particularly a short (one-month) rate, which is not readily available from the TIPS market. Calculations using the method suggest that longer-term inflation expectations remain near historic lows. Furthermore, the inflation-risk premium is also low, which in the model means that inflation is not ...
Economic Commentary , Issue Aug , Pages 4

Journal Article
Are some prices in the CPI more forward looking than others? We think so
Meyer, Brent; Bryan, Michael F. (2010-05-19)
Some of the items that make up the Consumer Price Index change prices frequently, while others are slow to change. We explore whether these two sets of prices - sticky and flexible - provide insight on different aspects of the inflation process. We find that sticky prices appear to incorporate expectations about future inflation to a greater degree than prices that change on a frequent basis, while flexible prices respond more powerfully to economic conditions?economic slack. Importantly, our sticky-price measure seems to contain a component of inflation expectations, and that component may ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2010 , Issue 02 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Would an inflation target help anchor U.S. inflation expectations?
Swanson, Eric T. (2006)
Since the October 2005 nomination of Ben Bernanke to become Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, there has been increasing speculation in the financial press that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) might soon adopt an explicit numerical objective for inflation. However, skeptics of inflation targeting have maintained that this would constrain the FOMC and might provide little benefit in return?after all, it has been argued, haven't inflation expectations in the U.S. been well anchored since the early to mid-1990s? ; In this Economic Letter, I discuss recent research on whether ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Monetary policy and global equilibria in a production economy
Hursey, Tim; Wolman, Alexander L. (2010)
In linear macroeconomic models, an active Taylor rule for monetary policy can guarantee a locally unique nonexplosive equilibrium. In a series of articles, Benhabib, Schmitt-Groh, and Uribe looked beyond the local dynamics and showed that active Taylor rules could interact with the zero bound on nominal interest rates to generate multiple equilibria, including a steady-state equilibrium with inflation below target. Recently, the persistence of low inflation and low nominal interest rates has brought attention to Benhabib, Schmitt-Groh, and Uribe's work in policy circles. We provide an ...
Economic Quarterly , Volume 96 , Issue 4Q , Pages 317-337

Journal Article
Aggregate price changes and price expectations
Fair, Ray C. (1970)
Review , Volume 52 , Issue Nov , Pages 18-28

Journal Article
Price stability and the rising tide: how low inflation lifts all ships
Poole, William; Wall, Howard J. (2000)
The low and stable inflation that the Fed has relentlessly pursued over the past decade or so has buoyed virtually all demographic groups, enabling most Americans to do a lot more than just keep their heads above water.
The Regional Economist , Issue Jan , Pages 4-9

Journal Article
Globalization and global disinflation
Rogoff, Kenneth S. (2003)
Since the invention of money, pressure to finance government debt and deficits, directly or indirectly, has been the single most important driver of inflation. It is not at all clear, however, that improved fiscal policy has been the main driver of the recent disinflation. ; Whatever the explanation of global disinflation, the raw data are stunning. In recent years, inflation around the world has dropped to levels that, only two decades ago, seemed frustratingly unattainable. If one takes into account technical biases in the construction of the CPI, as well as central banks? desire to ...
Economic Review , Volume 88 , Issue Q IV , Pages 45-78

Conference Paper
The effects of globalization on inflation and their implications for monetary policy
Kohn, Donald L. (2006)
Policymakers here and abroad cannot lose sight of a fundamental truth: In a world of separate currencies that can fluctuate against each other over time, each country?s central bank determines its inflation rate. If the FOMC were to allow the U.S. economy to run beyond its sustainable potential for some time, inflation would eventually rise. And, this pickup would become self-perpetuating if it became embedded in inflation expectations. Thus, while a better understanding of the implications of globalization will aid in our understanding of inflation dynamics, it is also clear that such ...
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 51

Journal Article
The current inflation: the United States experience
Burger, Albert E. (1974)
Review , Volume 56 , Issue Sep , Pages 13-23

Journal Article
Liquidity risk premia and breakeven inflation rates
Shen, Pu (2006)
In recent years, monetary policymakers have monitored several measures of market expectations of future inflation. One of these measures is based on the yield differential between nominal and inflation indexed Treasury securities. This yield spread is also called the ?breakeven inflation rate.? An increase in the breakeven rate is sometimes viewed as a sign that market inflation expectations may be on the rise. For example, the FOMC frequently refers to the yield spread as a measure of ?inflation compensation? and considers the yield spread an indicator of inflation expectations in policy ...
Economic Review , Volume 91 , Issue Q II , Pages 29-54

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