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Keywords:Inflation (Finance) 

Journal Article
What inflation policy do American voters want, and do they get it?

Inflation at the time of the 1992 election was at its lowest level in 20 years. This fact might have been expected to give the incumbent Administration a significant advantage, since most previous research regarding voters economic preferences has found that American voters have a strong preference for low inflation and a great willingness to tolerate unemployment to reduce inflation. Thus, the 1992 election results raise the possibility that voter preferences either have changed or were mistakenly estimated earlier. ; The authors goal is to obtain some estimates of the policies and inflation ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Sep , Pages 33-44

Journal Article
Forecasting changes in inflation using the Treasury bill futures market

New England Economic Review , Issue Mar , Pages 41-48

Journal Article
The distorting effects of the inflation premium on personal income and expenditures

New England Economic Review , Issue Sep , Pages 10-24

Journal Article
Should the U.S. government issue index bonds?

New England Economic Review , Issue Sep , Pages 3-21

Journal Article
The persistence of inflation and the cost of disinflation

How costly would it be in terms of lost output and jobs to lower the inflation rate to zero? One can answer this counterfactual question only in the context of a model that allows us to estimate the effects of pursuing counterfactual monetary policies. The answer to the question can vary widely depending upon the characteristics of the model used to address it.> This article argues that one cannot answer the above question accurately without using a model that properly captures an important feature of the real world: the persistence of inflation. This persistence and the cost of disinflating ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jan , Pages 3-16

Journal Article
Yield curve forecasts of inflation: a cautionary tale

Long-term interest rates that are unusually high relative to shortterm interest rates are often seen to reflect market expectations of increasing inflation. Given that the term structure of interest rates (also called the yield curve) reacts to inflation expectations, does it do so in a reasonable manner? Does the term structure embody inflation forecasts that bear a sensible relationship to the iiaflation that in fact occurs? ; This article reviews the theoretical link between the term structure and inflation expectations, and then it provides empirical evidence on the link in light of the ...
New England Economic Review , Issue May , Pages 3-16

Journal Article
Diversity, uncertainty, and accuracy of inflation forecasts

Uncertainty is a key concept in both economic theory and economic practice. Yet, economic forecasts are usually stated as single numbers, or "point estimates," that convey no information about the full array of possible outcomes. The dispersion of individual forecasters' point estimates is often used as an approximation of forecast uncertainty, even though it is neither logically nor empirically related. In fact, the diversity of point estimates is a poor guide to the accuracy of a point estimate forecast. ; This article examines explicit estimates of forecast uncertainty, taken from the ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 33-44

Journal Article
Inflation-indexed bonds: the dog that didn't bark

The introduction by the U.S. Treasury of inflation-indexed notes was one of the most widely publicized innovations in the U.S. capital markets in recent years. Since their introduction in January 1997, $57 billion in 5-, 10-, and 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) has been issued, and the Treasury has recently announced that TIPS will also be offered as small- denomination savings bonds. Because both the coupon and the principal of TIPS vary with the consumer price index, the Treasury believes these notes will appeal to risk-adverse investors seeking protection from ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jan , Pages 3-24

Journal Article
Is inflation dead?

In the past few years the United States has enjoyed the unique economic duet of very low unemployment and declining price inflation. For decades, we have come to associate tight labor markets with accelerating wages and prices. But in 1997, the unemployment rate sank below 5 percent, and neither wage nor price inflation became a problem. Have our inflation processes fundamentally changed for the better? Are we in a new era of permanently better economic performance due to new behavior by our citizens? Or are we simply enjoying good luck in the form of positive supply shocks? A careful ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jan , Pages 37-49

Journal Article
U.S economic performance: good fortune, bubble, or new era?

What accounts for the extraordinary performance of the U.S. economy in recent years? How is that we have been able to enjoy such strong economic growth and resulting low unemployment rates without an upturn in inflation? The author reviews the primary explanations offered for these unusually favorable circumstances - that the U.S. economy has been the beneficiary of temporary factors that have held down the inflation rate or that the U.S. economy has entered a new era of intensified competition and rising productivity growth in which inflation is less of a threat. She also discusses ...
New England Economic Review , Issue May , Pages 3-20

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