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Conference Paper
Near-rationality and inflation in two monetary regimes, comments
Fuhrer, Jeffrey C.
(2000)
Proceedings
Working Paper
New economy - new policy rules?
Bullard, James B.; Schaling, Eric
(2000)
The U.S. economy appears to have experienced a pronounced shift toward higher productivity over the last five years or so. We wish to understand the implications of such shifts for the structure of optimal monetary policy rules in simple dynamic economies. Accordingly, we begin with a standard economy in which a version of the Taylor rule constitutes the optimal monetary policy for a given inflation target and a given level of productivity. We augment this model with regime switching in productivity, and calculate the optimal monetary policy rule in the altered environment. We find that in ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2000-019
Briefing
A principal components approach to estimating labor market pressure and its implications for inflation
Olivei, Giovanni P.; Chahrour, Ryan; Barnes, Michelle L.; Tang, Gaoyan
(2007)
We build a summary measure of labor market pressure that captures the common movement among a variety of labor market series. Obtained as the labor market series? first principal component, this measure explains a large portion of the variability of the underlying series. For this reason, it is a good summary indicator of labor market pressure. We show that the unemployment rate gap has tracked this summary measure closely over the past 35 years. At times, however, the summary measure and the unemployment rate gap have sent somewhat different signals. In terms of relying on the principal ...
Public Policy Brief
Journal Article
Commodity prices and PCE inflation
Raina, Rachna; Hale, Galina; Hobijn, Bart
(2012)
Commodity prices have soared several times in recent years, raising concerns that overall inflation could rise substantially. However, crops, oil, and natural gas make up only about 5% of the cost of U.S. consumer goods and services. Thus, about one percentage point of the 10% cumulative inflation since 2007 reflects price rises in these important commodity categories. When the contribution of these commodities is subtracted from overall inflation, the resulting pattern is remarkably similar to that of core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices.
FRBSF Economic Letter
Working Paper
Capital mobility and the output-inflation tradeoff
Loungani, Prakash; Yuen, Chi-Wa; Razin, Assaf
(1997)
Our paper analyses the effects of restrictions on capital mobility on the output-inflation tradeoff. Using a stochastic version of the Mundell-Fleming model, we establish a theoretical presumption that an increase in restrictions on capital mobility should make the tradeoff parameter smaller, that is, a given change in the inflation rate should be associated with smaller movements in output. To measure the extent to which countries restrict capital movements, we construct an index using data from the IMF's Annual Report on Exchange Rate Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. The estimates of ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 577
Working Paper
Forecasting inflation using interest rate and time-series models: some international evidence
Hafer, R. W.; Hein, Scott E.
(1988)
Working Papers
, Paper 1988-001
Journal Article
Do rising labor costs trigger higher inflation?
Brauer, David A.
(1997)
The evidence that developments in compensation growth lead overall CPI inflation has thus far been inconclusive. This study, however, sheds new light on the relationship between labor costs and price inflation. By breaking down compensation and prices into their various components, the author finds that compensation growth in the service-producing segment of the private sector can help predict prices for a specific group of services.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance
, Volume 3
, Issue Sep
Journal Article
Inflation in the service sector
Rappoport, Peter
(1986-01)
Quarterly Review
, Volume 11
, Issue Win
Speech
The U.S. economic outlook and the normalization of monetary policy: a speech at the Society of Business Economists annual conference, London, England, June 9, 2011
Plosser, Charles I.
(2011-06-09)
Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Society of Business Economists Annual Conference, London, England, June 9, 2011
Speech
, Paper 55
Working Paper
Some evidence on the efficacy of the UK inflation targeting regime: an out-of-sample forecast approach
Huh, Chan Guk
(1996)
Inflation targeting (IT)--a policy framework that directly targets an explicit inflation goal--has gained widespread attention recently as it has been adopted by several OECD countries. There is a growing body of literature on the ultimate long-term benefits of price stability and on theoretical issues related to inflation targeting. But the short duration of this practice has limited the number of works that empirically analyze the performance of IT regimes. This paper examines the British inflation targeting experience since 1993 by focusing on the out-of-sample forecast performance of ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 565
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