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Keywords:Inflation (Finance) 

Journal Article
U.S. inflation and the international economy

Southwest Economy , Issue Jul , Pages 6

Journal Article
Happy New Year?

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
When can we forecast inflation?

This article reassesses recent work that has challenged the usefulness of inflation forecasts. The authors find that inflation forecasts were informative in 1977-84 and 1993-2000, but less informative in 1985-92. They also find that standard forecasting models, while generally poor at forecasting the magnitude of inflation, are good at forecasting the direction of change of inflation.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 26 , Issue Q I , Pages 32-44

Working Paper
Nonlinear relationship between permanent and transitory components of monetary aggregates and the economy

This paper uses several methods to study the interrelationship among Divisia monetary aggregates, prices, and income, allowing for nonstationary, nonlinearities, asymmetries, and time-varying relationships among the series. We propose a multivariate regime switching unobserved components model to obtain transitory and permanent components for each series, allowing for potential recurrent and structural changes in their dynamics. Each component follows distinct two-state Markov processes representing low or high phases. Since the lead-lag relationship between the phases can vary over time, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2013-018

Working Paper
U.S. official forecasts of Group of Seven economic performance, 1976-90

In this paper, we evaluate the accuracy of the U.S. Treasury Department forecasts of real growth and inflation from 1976 to 1990 for the Group of Seven (G-7) economies. The accuracy of these forecasts is measured against the standard of actual real world growth and inflation as subsequently published in the Treasury's World Economic Outlook (WEO). The primary comparison is to forecasts made by the OECD for each of the G-7 nations, but for the United States and Canada, we compare the forecasts to those made by the Blue Chip consensus and the Federal Reserve 'Greenbook'.
Working Papers , Paper 1994-030

Journal Article
Commentary: Voluntary inflation restraint and corporate social responsibility

Business Review , Issue Jan , Pages 3-4

Conference Paper
Quantitative evidence on price determination, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C., September 29-30, 2005

This conference, which takes its inspiration from one held in 1970 entitled "The Econometrics of Price Determination," aims to take stock of the current knowledge about quantitative aspects of inflation dynamics. Conference papers will be considered for publication in a special issue of the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking.
Proceedings

Working Paper
Understanding the distributional impact of long-run inflation

The impact of fully anticipated inflation is systematically studied in heterogeneous agent economies with an endogenous labor supply and portfolio choices. In stationary equilibrium, inflation nonlinearly alters the endogenous distributions of income, wealth, and consumption. Small departures from zero inflation have the strongest impact. Three features determine how inflation impacts distributions and welfare: financial structure, shock persistence, and labor supply elasticity. When agents can self-insure only with money, inflation reduces wealth inequality but may raise consumption ...
Working Papers , Paper 2012-058

Report
Managing exchange rates: the experience of the European monetary system

Research Paper , Paper 8814

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