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Conference Paper
Importing technology

We look at disaggregated imports of various types of equipment to make inferences on cross-country differences in the composition of equipment investment. We make three contributions. First, we document large differences in investment composition. Second, we explain these differences as being based on each equipment type's intrinsic efficiency, as well as on its degree of complementarity with other factors whose abundance differs across countries. Third, we examine the implications of investment composition for development accounting, i.e., explaining the cross-country variation in income per ...
Proceedings , Issue Nov

Discussion Paper
What’s Driving the Recent Slump in U.S. imports?

The growth in U.S. imports of goods has been stubbornly low since the second quarter of 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 0.7 percent. Growth has been even weaker for non-oil imports, which have increased at an average annual rate of only 0.1 percent. This is in sharp contrast to the pattern in the five quarters preceding the second quarter of 2015, when real non-oil imports were growing at an annualized rate of 8 percent per quarter. The timing of the weakness in import growth is particularly puzzling in light of the strong U.S. dollar, which appreciated 12 percent in 2015, ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20161107

Working Paper
Selective Sovereign Defaults

Governments issue debt both domestically and abroad. This heterogeneity introduces the possibility for governments to operate selective defaults that discriminate across investors. Using a novel dataset on the legal jurisdiction of sovereign defaults that distinguishes between defaults under domestic law and default under foreign law, we show that selectiveness is the norm and that imports, credit, and output dynamics are different around different types of default. Domestic defaults are associated with contractions of credit and are more likely in countries with smaller credit markets. In ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1239

Journal Article
Estimating U.S. metropolitan area export and import competition

This article estimates the extent to which the manufacturing sectors of U.S. metropolitan economies face competition from abroad and, in turn, how much they export overseas.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 27 , Issue Q IV

Journal Article
Changing patterns in U.S. international transactions

Federal Reserve Bulletin , Issue Apr , Pages 283-293

An alternative theory of the plant size distribution with an application to trade

There is wide variation in the sizes of manufacturing plants, even within the most narrowly defined industry classifications used by statistical agencies. Standard theories attribute all such size differences to productivity differences. This paper develops an alternative theory in which industries are made up of large plants producing standardized goods and small plants making custom or specialty goods. It uses confidential Census data to estimate the parameters of the model, including estimates of plant counts in the standardized and specialty segments by industry. The estimated model fits ...
Staff Report , Paper 445

Journal Article
The dollar and U.S. imports after 1985

Despite a steep drop in the dollar's value, imports continued to grow much faster than domestic sales after 1985. The resilience in the demand for imports raised concern that foreign producers in the first half of the 1980s had gained long-term advantages in U.S. markets that diminished the impact of the dollar's fall. This article investigates whether the dollar in fact retained its power to influence the demand for foreign goods.
Quarterly Review , Volume 18 , Issue Aut

Journal Article
Intellectual property rights and product effectiveness

Recent economic literature concludes that an invention-importing country, where domestic invention is scarce or nonexistent, may reduce its welfare and, in some cases, world welfare, by protecting intellectual property developed elsewhere. The analysis presented in this article uses economic theory to show that such a conclusion may not be fully warranted for a wide range of products, such as antibiotics, fungicides, herbicides, and pesticides, whose effectiveness diminishes with cumulative use. Both developed and developing countries may find that protecting intellectual property rights ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 15-20

Journal Article
U.S. balance of payments and investment position

Federal Reserve Bulletin , Issue Apr

Journal Article
Understanding the recent behavior of U.S. inflation

One of the most surprising features of the long current expansion has been the decline in price inflation through the late 1990s. Some observers interpret the decline as evidence of a permanent change in the relationship between inflation and economic growth. But an analysis based on a standard forecasting model suggests that conventional economic factors_most notably, a decrease in import prices_can account for the low inflation rates in recent years.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 6 , Issue Jul



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