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Working Paper
Output dynamics in real business cycle models
Nason, James M.; Cogley, Timothy (1993)
The time series literature reports two stylized facts about output dynamics in the United States. GNP growth is positively autocorrelated over short horizons and negatively autocorrelated over longer horizons, and GNP has an important trend reverting component which has a hump-shaped moving average representation. We consider whether various real business cycle (RBC) models are consistent with these stylized facts. ; We find that many RBC models have weak internal propagation mechanisms and must rely on exogenous factors to replicate both stylized facts. In particular, intertemporal ...
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 93-10

Journal Article
A simple way to estimate current-quarter GNP
Miller, Preston J.; Fitzgerald, Terry J. (1989-10)
This paper describes a method developed to predict the advance (first) estimate of inflation-adjusted gross national product (real GNP) using hours-worked data. Besides generating fairly accurate forecasts of advance GNP, the method has two implications. First, the Commerce Department seems to weigh the hours-worked data most heavily in its early estimates of real GNP but less and less so in its revised estimates. Second, analysts attempting to predict current-quarter outcomes in real time need to consider the availability and reliability of data at the time the forecasts are made.
Quarterly Review , Volume 13 , Issue Fall , Pages 27-31

Journal Article
What has happened to M1?
Taylor, Herbert E. (1986-09)
Business Review , Issue Sep , Pages 3-14

Working Paper
Conditional asymmetries in real GNP: a semi-nonparametric approach
Brunner, Allan D. (1990)
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 140

Working Paper
Forecasting with the yield curve; level, slope, and output 1875-1997
Bordo, Michael D.; Haubrich, Joseph G. (2006)
Using the yield curve helps forecast real growth over the period 1875 to 1997. Using both the level and slope of the curve improves forecasts more than using either variable alone. Forecast performance changes over time and depends somewhat on whether recursive or rolling out of sample regressions are used.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 0611

Journal Article
Private-sector decisions and the U.S. trade deficit
Diba, Behzad T. (1988-09)
Business Review , Issue Sep , Pages 15-24

Journal Article
The landing was harder than we thought!
Motley, Brian (1990)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Evaluating McCallum's rule for monetary policy
Croushore, Dean; Stark, Tom (1995-01)
Business Review , Issue Jan , Pages 3-14

Speech
Macro overview of the United States
Cumming, Christine M. (2011)
Remarks at the European Economics and Financial Centre, London, England.
Speech , Paper 44

Working Paper
The effect of changes in reserve requirements on investment and GNP
Rush, Mark; Loungani, Prakash (1991)
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper 91-21

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