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Journal Article
F.Y.I. effects of oil price shocks on measured GNP growth
AUTHORS: Rogers, R. Mark
DATE: 1987-07

Journal Article
Forecasting U.S. GNP at monthly intervals with an estimated bivariate time series model
AUTHORS: Zadrozny, Peter A.
DATE: 1990-11

Journal Article
Prospective nominal GNP targeting: an alternative framework for monetary policy
AUTHORS: McNees, Stephen K.
DATE: 1987-09

Journal Article
Estimating GNP: the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy
AUTHORS: McNees, Stephen K.
DATE: 1986-01

Journal Article
How erratic is money growth?
AUTHORS: Kopcke, Richard W.
DATE: 1986-05

Journal Article
A fresh look at the national economy
AUTHORS: Duca, John V.; Koenig, Evan F.
DATE: 1999-03

Working Paper
Output dynamics in real business cycle models
The time series literature reports two stylized facts about output dynamics in the United States. GNP growth is positively autocorrelated over short horizons and negatively autocorrelated over longer horizons, and GNP has an important trend reverting component which has a hump-shaped moving average representation. We consider whether various real business cycle (RBC) models are consistent with these stylized facts. ; We find that many RBC models have weak internal propagation mechanisms and must rely on exogenous factors to replicate both stylized facts. In particular, intertemporal substitution, capital accumulation, and capital adjustment costs do not provide strong sources of propagation. Models which incorporate employment lags or labor adjustment costs are partially successful. They endogenously generate roughly the right pattern of autocorrelation in output growth, and they generate a small humpshaped trend reverting component in output. However, they must rely on implausibly large transitory shocks to match the large trend reverting component found in U.S. data. Our results suggest that RBC theorists ought to devote further attention to the problem of modeling propagation mechanisms.
AUTHORS: Nason, James M.; Cogley, Timothy
DATE: 1993

Journal Article
A revised picture: has our view of the economy changed?
A discussion of the major statistical changes in the December 1985 benchmark revisions of the National Income and Product Accounts statistics and of their impact on business cycle timing and magnitudes.
AUTHORS: Bernard, Theodore G.
DATE: 1986-04

Journal Article
Cycles within cycles
AUTHORS: Runyon, Herbert
DATE: 1978

Journal Article
The landing was harder than we thought!
AUTHORS: Motley, Brian
DATE: 1990

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