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Keywords:Gross national product 

Journal Article
Financial market evolution and the interest sensitivity of output

Quarterly Review , Volume 15 , Issue Sum

Journal Article
Unresolved issues in monetary policy

Solomon held the office of president during a period of notably successful anti-inflationary monetary policy as well as rapid financial innovation and deregulation. In this speech, he discusses monetary strategy in particular the targeting of monetary aggregates, interest rates, and nominal GNP in light of trends in inflation and the uncertainties introduced by changing financial markets.
Quarterly Review , Issue Special

Journal Article
External adjustment and U.S. macroeconomic performance

Quarterly Review , Volume 13 , Issue Win

Report
Macroeconomic forecasts under the prism of error-correction models

When the error correction term exhibits persistence, its change may convey useful information about short-run economic dynamics, which, if not taken sufficiently into account by a forecasting model, could be associated with predictable forecast errors. Such errors are documented in the DRI forecasts for the U.S. consumption, GNP and imports. The strong results, together with the very general assumptions behind the theoretical framework, suggest that similar predictable errors may be pervasive in the forecasts of other large-scale econometric models. Key Words: Error Correction Models, ...
Research Paper , Paper 9728

Discussion Paper
Unit roots in real GNP: do we know, and do we care?

Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 18

Discussion Paper
Structural changes in the real GNP interdependence of the U.S., West Germany, and Japan during the period 1970-1986

The paper first locates quarters in the early 1970s at which the covariance matrices of the innovation vectors have shifted for the real GNPs of the USA, West Germany and Japan treated as univariate series. The paper then exhibits differences in the impulse response time profiles of the two models estimated from the data primarily before and after the break as a concise summary of the changes in dynamic interactions of the three real GNPs.
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 20

Discussion Paper
Comparisons of alternative identification schemes for the U.S. real GNP- unemployment level correlation: sensitivity analysis

The paper employs three different types of identifying restrictions to calculate the impulse responses for the trivariate series composed of the U.S. unemployment level, real GNP and the money stock. The first two are the zero restrictions, arising from the assumption of the delayed information pattern available in forming a money reaction function. The third assumes a particular simplified structural model. The paper shows that the impulse response patterns are generally insensitive to these alternative specifications. Similar exercises are carried out for the bivariate series composed of ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 21

Discussion Paper
A Markov switching model of GNP growth with duration dependence

We use a regime-switching model of real GNP growth to examine the duration dependence of business cycles. The model extends Hamilton (1989) and Durland and McCurdy (1994) and is estimated using both the postwar NIPA data and the secular data constructed by Balke-Gordon. We find that an expansion is more likely to end at a young age, that a contraction is more likely to end at an old age, that output growth slows over the course of an expansion, that a decline in output is mild at the beginning of a contraction, and that long expansions are followed by long contractions. This evidence taken ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 124

Working Paper
Forecast announcements and locally persistent bias

Working Papers , Paper 91-10

Working Paper
Real and monetary explanations of permanent movements in GNP

Working Papers , Paper 89-16

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Carlson, Keith M. 4 items

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