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Nowcasting Using the Chicago Fed National Activity Index
The authors present an alternative version of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), which is constructed using a methodology that allows for a more robust treatment of the underlying data series than its traditional methodology. This alternative CFNAI produces superior predictions of real gross domestic product growth for the current quarter (nowcasts) while correlating more closely with U.S. recessions than the traditional index.
AUTHORS: Brave, Scott; Butters, R. Andrew
Economic Outlook Symposium: Summary of 2015 Results and 2016 Forecasts
According to participants in the Chicago Fed?s annual Economic Outlook Symposium, the U.S. economy is forecasted to grow at a pace slightly above average in 2016, with inflation moving higher and the unemployment rate edging lower
AUTHORS: Friedman, Rebecca; Strauss, William A.
Recent Trends in Capital Accumulation and Implications for Investment
Business investment has been fairly low over the past several years. As a result, the growth in the stock of capital has not kept up with the growth in gross domestic product (GDP) or employment. This Chicago Fed Letter studies these recent trends and discusses their implications for future investment.
AUTHORS: Gourio, Francois; Klier, Thomas H.
Debt Statistics a La Carte: Alternative Recipes for Measuring Government Indebtedness
According to Eurostat, the Greek government owed ?317 billion in debt at the end of 2014. This is equivalent to more than 177% of gross domestic product (GDP) or 387% of tax revenue, and amounts to almost ?30,000 per person. This seems like a very large sum. For comparison, of the other highly indebted European countries that received financial assistance, Portuguese government debt amounted to 130% of GDP, while Irish government debt amounted to 110% of GDP
AUTHORS: Wright, Mark L. J.; Dias, Daniel A.