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Keywords:Gross domestic product 

Journal Article
An evaluation of recent macroeconomic forecast errors

Despite a significant decline in the pace of economic growth in the second half of 2000, macroeconomic forecasters underpredicted real GDP growth and overpredicted the unemployment rate by a significant amount, for the fifth consecutive year. On average, real GDP forecasts were about 2 percentage points below the actual data for the 1996-2000 period, and unemployment rate forecasts about 0.5 percentage point above. On a more positive note, forecasters ended their chronic overprediction of inflation during much of this period. Nevertheless, surprisingly large and persistent errors in recent ...
New England Economic Review

Economic outlook for Y2K is A-OK

Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Feb

Conference Paper
Causes of declining growth in industrialized countries

Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Working Paper
Feeding the national accounts

Modern market economies are probably the most complex institutions ever devised by human beings. In the United States, by far the most complex of these tracking systems is the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA). This article's objective is to survey the main data sources currently used in the NIPA. It is not primarily an article about methodology, but focuses instead on the raw inputs to the process: Who is answering what kinds of questions? Closer acquaintance with the data sources behind the accounts highlights the considerable uncertainty about exact magnitudes of various ...
Working Papers , Paper 1999-011

Working Paper
Transition to FDI openness

Empirical studies quantifying the benefits of increased foreign direct investment (FDI) have been unable to provide conclusive evidence of a positive impact on host country?s economic performance. I show that the lack of robust evidence is not inconsistent with theory, even if the eventual gains to FDI are large, if restrictions on FDI are lifted only gradually and part of FDI is intangible investment. Anticipation of future increases in FDI can result in large shifts in patterns of domestic investment and employment. Furthermore, since intangible investments are expensed, both gross domestic ...
Working Papers , Paper 671

Conference Paper
The search for growth

Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Journal Article
Accounting for the federal government's cost of funds

This article describes and defends the authors' corrections to the federal government's flawed measure of its cost of funds. Further, it examines how the maturity structure of the debt influences the way inflation risk and interest rate risk are shared by the government and its creditors.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 21 , Issue Jul

Building a house for the 21st century

Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Feb

Journal Article
Signs point to stronger growth in GDP this year

The Regional Economist , Issue Apr

Journal Article
First quarters in the national income and product accounts

Prompted by their expectations of an initial estimate of a marked slowdown in U.S. real gross domestic product growth in the first quarter of 2015, commentators and analysts have drawn attention to an apparent ?first-quarter effect? in the U.S. national income and product accounts
Research Rap Special Report , Issue May



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Dudley, William 19 items

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