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Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 37.
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Journal Article
Is all government capital productive?
Journal Article
Come and get it
Federal spending in district states has increased significantly since the early 1990s.
Speech
The outlook, policy choices and our mandate
Remarks at the at the Society of American Business Editors and Writers Fall Conference, City University of New York, Graduate School of Journalism, New York City.
Speech
The road to recovery: Hudson Valley
Remarks at the Dutchess County Regional Chamber of Commerce, Fishkill, New York.
Speech
The road to recovery: Hudson Valley
Remarks at the State University of New York at New Paltz, New Paltz, New York.
Speech
The national and regional economic outlook
Remarks at Fordham University's Gabelli School of Business, Bronx, New York.
Speech
The national and regional economic outlook
Remarks before the Bronx Chamber of Commerce at the New York Botanical Garden, Bronx, New York.
Report
Correlated disturbances and U.S. business cycles
The dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models used to study business cycles typically assume that exogenous disturbances are independent first-order autoregressions. This paper relaxes this tight and arbitrary restriction by allowing for disturbances that have a rich contemporaneous and dynamic correlation structure. Our first contribution is a new Bayesian econometric method that uses conjugate conditionals to allow for feasible and quick estimation of DSGE models with correlated disturbances. Our second contribution is a reexamination of U.S. business cycles. We find that ...
Report
Deficits, public debt dynamics, and tax and spending multipliers
Cutting government spending on goods and services increases the budget deficit if the nominal interest rate is close to zero. This is the message of a simple but standard New Keynesian DSGE model calibrated with Bayesian methods. The cut in spending reduces output and thus?holding rates for labor and sales taxes constant?reduces revenues by even more than what is saved by the spending cut. Similarly, increasing sales taxes can increase the budget deficit rather than reduce it. Both results suggest limitations of ?austerity measures? in low interest rate economies to cut budget deficits. ...
Report
Fiscal multipliers and policy coordination
This paper addresses the effectiveness of fiscal policy at zero nominal interest rates. I analyze a stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices and rational expectations and assume that the government cannot commit to future policy. Real government spending increases demand by increasing public consumption. Deficit spending increases demand by generating inflation expectations. I derive fiscal spending multipliers that calculate how much output increases for each dollar of government spending (real or deficit). Under monetary and fiscal policy coordination, the real spending ...