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Journal Article
Gold and dollar flows in 1958
Journal Article
An appropriate international currency - gold, dollars, or SDRs?
Journal Article
Gold and dollar transfers in 1960
Journal Article
Recent gold movements: French financial developments
Newsletter
What drives gold prices?
A half century after gold ceased to play a significant formal role in the international monetary system, it still captures a great deal of attention in the financial press and the popular imagination. Yet there has been very little scrutiny of the primary factors determining the price of gold since its dollar price was first allowed to vary freely in 1971. In this article, we attempt to fill in that gap by highlighting three considerations that are commonly cited as drivers of gold prices: inflationary expectations, real interest rates, and pessimism ]about future macroeconomic conditions.
Working Paper
A model of bimetallism
Bimetallism has been the subject of considerable debate: Was it a viable monetary system? Was it a desirable system? In our model, the (exogenous and stochastic) amount of each metal can be split between monetary uses to satisfy a cash-in-advance constraint, and nonmonetary uses in which the stock of uncoined metal yields utility. The ratio of the monies in the cash-in-advance constraint is endogenous. Bimetallism is feasible: we find a continuum of steady states (in the certainty case) indexed by the constant exchange rate of the monies; we also prove existence for a range of fixed exchange ...
Journal Article
Following the yellow brick road: how the United States adopted the gold standard
The United States, with some difficulty, adopted the gold standard in the late nineteenth century, thus pegging the dollar to the pound sterling and other currencies. Some have argued it was mistake, others that it was inevitable. This article recounts the historical background and uses a model to shed light on the choices faced by policymakers of the time.
Journal Article
Gold, capital flow, and foreign trade during war
Working Paper
Implied volatility from options on gold futures: do statistical forecasts add value or simply paint the lilly?
Consistent with findings in other markets, implied volatility is a biased predictor of the realized volatility of gold futures. No existing explanation?including a price of volatility risk?can completely explain the bias, but much of this apparent bias can be explained by persistence and estimation error in implied volatility. Statistical criteria reject the hypothesis that implied volatility is informationally efficient with respect to econometric forecasts. But delta hedging exercises indicate that such econometric forecasts have no incremental economic value. Thus, statistical measures of ...
Journal Article
Economic history : Gold among the 'Heels
News of gold discoveries pulled in experts, captains of industry, money, and miners to the sleepy backwater that was early 19th century North Carolina.