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Keywords:Global financial crisis 

Working Paper
Where are global and U.S. trade heading in the aftermath of the trade collapse: issues and alternative scenarios
Global and U.S. trade declined dramatically in the wake of the global financial crisis in late 2008 and early 2009. The subsequent recovery in trade, while vigorous at first, gradually lost momentum in 2010. Against this backdrop, this paper explores the prospects for global and U.S. trade in the medium term. We develop a unified empirical framework ? an error correction model ? that exploits the cointegrating relationship between trade and economic activity. The model allows us to juxtapose several scenarios with different assumptions about the strength of GDP growth going forward and the relationship between trade and economic activity. Our analysis suggests that during the crisis both world trade and U.S. exports declined significantly more than would have been expected on the basis of historical relationships with economic activity. Moreover, this gap between actual and equilibrium trade is closing only slowly and could persist for some time to come.
AUTHORS: Gruber, Joseph W.; Filippo di Mauro; Bernd Schnatz; Nico Zorell
DATE: 2011

Journal Article
Texas economy shakes off rough ride in 2009
While conditions remain weak, it appears that the Texas economy is on a steadier course after a rough ride last year. Recent economic data and anecdotal evidence suggest the worst of the state's economic woes may be over. Activity is growing in several sectors. The state maintains its traditional advantages--relatively low living costs, modest taxes, a central location and an attractive business climate. Barring further setbacks, the Texas economy should pick up steam in 2010 and beyond.
AUTHORS: Assanie, Laila; Orrenius, Pia M.
DATE: 2010-01

Speech
Where we go from here : the crisis and beyond (with reference to P.G. Wodehouse, John Kenneth Galbraith, Alan Greenspan and an unnamed Eller College student)
Remarks before the Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, March 30, 2010 ; "Generally, the data indicate that we will move down the field this year at about a 3 percent clip. It is less than we had grown accustomed to in the heyday before the crisis, and it may not result in as rapid a reduction in unemployment as we would like."
AUTHORS: Fisher, Richard W.
DATE: 2010

Speech
The U.S., Mexican, and border economies
Remarks before a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Community Luncheon, Laredo, Texas, September 10, 2007. ; "It is fair to say that I am encouraged by what I have heard against a background of constant negative speculation and the occasional discordant note, such as last week's employment numbers. Our economy appears to be weathering the storm thus far. The future path of that storm and the appropriate policy course, however, are still to be determined."
AUTHORS: Fisher, Richard W.
DATE: 2007

Speech
The egocentricity of the present (prefaced by the tale of Ruth and Emma)
"In building the bridge to restore financial order and efficiency, my primary interest is to do the minimum necessary to get the job done. And no more. In so doing, my hope is that we restore the long-term faith of the millions of risk takers who make our economy so mighty." ; Remarks before a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Community Forum, San Antonio, Texas, April 9, 2008.
AUTHORS: Fisher, Richard W.
DATE: 2008

Speech
The U.S. economy, globalization, and inflation measurement (with brief references to brawls, beer, and bikinis)
Remarks before the Australian Business Economists, Sydney, Australia, November 14, 2007. ; Our job has been made more complicated by globalization--the freer flow of goods, services, money, ideas and people across national borders. Its present incarnation owes a great deal to the revolution in information technology. Faster, cheaper and better communications are breaking down barriers to international business and knitting the world's economies closer together faster than Skippy could outsmart a pack of hungry dingoes."
AUTHORS: Fisher, Richard W.
DATE: 2007

Periodic Essay
Global recovery: Asia and the new financial landscape
On June 7 and 8, 2010, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Franciscos biennial Conference on Asian Banking and Finance considered the Global Recovery: Asia and the New Financial Landscape. The Conference is the fourth in a series begun in 2007 to examine the role of Asia in global finance. This Asia Focus report, written by Chris Sigur, provides highlights of perspectives on the global financial crisis that were shared at the conference.
AUTHORS: Sigur, Christopher
DATE: 2010-09

Journal Article
Eleventh District banking industry weathers financial storms
In 2009, the banking industry continued to feel the fallout from the financial crisis that began in mid-2007. Some good news was revealed in recently available first-quarter data, however, which showed profitability rebounding and increases in asset-quality problems slowing down. Whether measured by profits or problems, Eleventh District banks were roughly "twice as good and half as bad" as their counterparts across the nation. Most likely, this reflects the fact that the economic downturn was less severe in the district than in other parts of the nation. ; Another noticeable difference emerges when comparing district banks' recent performance with an earlier period when the economy turned south and the industry suffered significant damage--the mid- to late 1980s. At that time, students of banking history may recall, a sharp decline in oil prices triggered a deep regional recession. Bank failures soared, and the financial landscape in Texas and other parts of the Southwest changed considerably. ; This raises the question of why the district's banking industry has been able to weather the current downturn--so far--with less damage than in the 1980s. The answer likely can be found in the changing nature of the district's economic environment since then.
AUTHORS: Robinson, Kenneth J.
DATE: 2010-04

Journal Article
Cloud over commercial real estate is slowly lifting in Texas
Every segment of the Texas commercial property sector suffered during the recession of 2009. Demand withered for space in offices, warehouses and retail centers, pushing up vacancy rates and lowering rental rates. Private nonresidential construction dropped sharply, reaching near-record lows. The global financial crisis temporarily brought lending to a halt. Commercial-mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) lending dried up in Texas and the U.S. as it became clear that repackaging suspect loans didn't lower risk. Banks also became wary of adding CRE loans to their books, especially in Texas, where the share of these assets exceeded the national average. ; While the recession appears to be over, commercial activity is a trailing indicator and, given still-tight credit conditions, remains a potential drag on economic recovery. Significant declines in property values and rents have raised concerns about impending defaults and foreclosures as loans come due, posing risks to the banking sector and the economy as a whole. Indeed, the share of nonperforming CRE loans at Texas banks is rising. In a positive sign, the lower rents and prices are beginning to stir demand for space as well as investor interest. In addition, sectors of the economy that drive real estate demand have turned the corner, suggesting the bottom is near.
AUTHORS: Petersen, D'Ann M.
DATE: 2010-04

Journal Article
Why was the decline in U.S. trade larger this time? a global view
The decline in U.S. trade during the Great Recession was worse than during previous recessions. But the difference was not merely due to the severity of the U.S. recession.
AUTHORS: Ravikumar, B.; Sposi, Michael J.; Shao, Lin
DATE: 2013-10

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