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Fluctuations in upside risks to unemployment over the medium term are examined using quantile regressions. U.S. experience reveals an elevated risk of large increases in unemployment when inflation or credit growth is high and when the unemployment rate is low. Inflation was a significant contributor to unemployment risk in the 1970s and early 1980s, and fluctuations in credit have contributed importantly to unemployment risk since the 1980s. Fluctuations in upside risk to unemployment are larger than fluctuations in the median outlook or downside risk to unemployment. Accounting for ...