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Keywords:GDP (gross domestic product) 

Discussion Paper
Reintroducing the New York Fed Staff Nowcast

“Nowcasts” of GDP growth are designed to track the economy in real time by incorporating information from an array of indicators as they are released. In April 2016, the New York Fed’s Research Group launched the New York Fed Staff Nowcast, a dynamic factor model that generated estimates of current quarter GDP growth at a weekly frequency. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic sparked widespread economic disruptions—and unprecedented fluctuations in the economic data that flow into the Staff Nowcast. This posed significant challenges to the model, leading to the suspension of publication ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230908

Working Paper
Worker Betas: Five Facts About Systematic Earnings Risk

The magnitude of and heterogeneity in systematic earnings risk has important implications for various theories in macro, labor, and financial economics. Using administrative data, we document how the aggregate risk exposure of individual earnings to GDP and stock returns varies across gender, age, the worker?s earnings level, and industry. Aggregate risk exposure is U-shaped with respect to the earnings level. In the middle of the earnings distribution, males, younger workers, and those in construction and durable manufacturing are more exposed to aggregate risk. At the top of the earnings ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2017-4

Journal Article
Slower GDP Growth and Falling Inflation in U.S. Economic Outlook for 2024

The U.S. macroeconomic outlook calls for real GDP growth to slow sharply but remain positive in 2024 and for inflation pressures to continue easing.
The Regional Economist


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