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Report
Aggregate Output Measurements: A Common Trend Approach
Sentana, Enrique; Fiorentini, Gabriele; Almuzara, Martín (2021-03-01)
We analyze a model for N different measurements of a persistent latent time series when measurement errors are mean-reverting, which implies a common trend among measurements. We study the consequences of overdifferencing, finding potentially large biases in maximum likelihood estimators of the dynamics parameters and reductions in the precision of smoothed estimates of the latent variable, especially for multiperiod objects such as quinquennial growth rates. We also develop an R2 measure of common trend observability that determines the severity of misspecification. Finally, we apply our ...
Staff Reports , Paper 962

Newsletter
The Effect of Weather on First-Quarter GDP
Gourio, Francois (2015)
In a pattern similar to that of the previous year, the U.S. economy appeared to slow down this past winter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis currently estimates that gross domestic product (GDP) grew at 0.6% (at an annualized rate) in the first quarter of 2015. And as in the previous year, harsh winter weather has been cited by some observers as being responsible for the slowdown. However, there is substantial disagreement on the impact of weather on economic activity.
Chicago Fed Letter

Working Paper
Measurement Error in Macroeconomic Data and Economics Research: Data Revisions, Gross Domestic Product, and Gross Domestic Income
Li, Phillip; Chang, Andrew C. (2015-11-10)
We analyze the effect of measurement error in macroeconomic data on economics research using two features of the estimates of latent US output produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). First, we use the fact that the BEA publishes two theoretically identical estimates of latent US output that only differ due to measurement error: the more well-known gross domestic product (GDP), which the BEA constructs using expenditure data, and gross domestic income (GDI), which the BEA constructs using income data. Second, we use BEA revisions to previously published releases of GDP and GDI. ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-102

Challenges in Nowcasting GDP Growth
Higgins, Patrick C. (2020-05-12)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) declined at an annualized rate of 4.8 percent in the first quarter, according to the first estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), 3.8 percentage points more than the decline anticipated by the Atlanta Fed's final GDPNow model projection. Why was the error, which was easily the model's largest on record for final GDPNow forecasts, so big? Chart 1 looks at GDPNow's forecast errors since the model went live in mid-2014 and breaks them down into forecast errors for the various subcomponents' contributions to GDP growth.
Macroblog

Journal Article
First quarters in the national income and product accounts
Stark, Tom (2015-05)
Prompted by their expectations of an initial estimate of a marked slowdown in U.S. real gross domestic product growth in the first quarter of 2015, commentators and analysts have drawn attention to an apparent ?first-quarter effect? in the U.S. national income and product accounts
Research Rap Special Report , Issue May

Journal Article
Lingering Residual Seasonality in GDP Growth
Lunsford, Kurt Graden (2017-03)
Measuring economic growth is complicated by seasonality, the regular fluctuation in economic activity that depends on the season of the year. The Bureau of Economic Analysis uses statistical techniques to remove seasonality from its estimates of GDP, and, in 2015, it took steps to improve the seasonal adjustment of data back to 2012. I show that residual seasonality in GDP growth remains even after these adjustments, has been a longer-term phenomenon, and is particularly noticeable in the 1990s. The size of this residual seasonality is economically meaningful and has the ability to change the ...
Economic Commentary , Issue March

Journal Article
Inflation Remains Wild Card in U.S. GDP Outlook for 2022
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2021-12-20)
Forecasters are projecting strong U.S. GDP growth in 2022. But if higher inflation persists and further erodes household purchasing power, that could put this growth at risk.
The Regional Economist

Newsletter
Data Units in FRED®
Mendez-Carbajo, Diego (2021-11)
This Page One Economics Data Primer describes the range of data units available in FRED, including their common use and interpretation, that help reveal the story behind the numbers.
Page One Economics Newsletter

Speech
An Economic Outlook - Main Line Chamber of Commerce
Harker, Patrick T. (2017-01-12)
Inflation, GDP growth, and the labor market are ?displaying considerable strength? and indicate a robust American economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick T. Harker said today in remarks to the Main Line Chamber of Commerce.
Speech , Paper 127

Working Paper
The Well-Being of Nations: Estimating Welfare from International Migration
Lin, Jeffrey; Lee, Seung Jung; Lee, Sanghoon (2020-01-14)
The limitations of GDP as a measure of welfare are well known. We propose a new method of estimating the well-being of nations. Using gross bilateral international migration flows and a discrete choice model in which everyone in the world chooses a country in which to live, we estimate each country?s overall quality of life. Our estimates, by relying on revealed preference, complement previous estimates of economic well-being that consider only income or a small number of factors, or rely on structural assumptions about how these factors contribute to wellbeing.
Working Papers , Paper 19-33

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