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Keywords:Futures 

Report
Macro news, risk-free rates, and the intermediary: customer orders for thirty-year Treasury futures

Customer order flow correlates with permanent price changes in equity and non-equity markets. We examine macro news events in the thirty-year Treasury futures market to identify causality from customer flow to risk-free rates. We remove the positive feedback trading effect and establish that, in the fifteen minutes subsequent to the news, intermediaries rely on customer orders to determine a substantial part of the announcement?s effect on risk-free rates?about one-third relative to the instantaneous effect. Intermediaries appear to benefit from privately observing informed customers, since ...
Staff Reports , Paper 307

Report
Interest rate options dealers' hedging in the US dollar fixed income market

The potential for the dynamic hedging of written options to lead to positive feedback in asset price dynamics has received repeated attention in the literature on financial derivatives. Using data on OTC interest rate options from a recent survey of global derivatives markets, this paper addresses the question whether that potential for positive feedback is likely to be realized. With the possible exception of the medium term segment of the term structure, transaction volume in available hedging instruments is sufficiently large to absorb the demands resulting from the dynamic hedging of US ...
Research Paper , Paper 9719

Newsletter
What is multilateral clearing and who cares?

Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Nov

Working Paper
Inferring Term Rates from SOFR Futures Prices

The Alternative Reference Rate Committee, a group of private-sector market participants convened by the Federal Reserve, has recommended that markets transition to the use of the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in financial contracts that currently reference US dollar LIBOR. This paper examines the feasibility of using SOFR futures prices to construct forward-looking term reference rates that are conceptually similar to the term LIBOR rates commonly used in loan contracts. We show that futures-implied term SOFR rates have closely tracked federal funds OIS rates over the eight months ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-014

Conference Paper
The globalization of trading and its implications for financial system risk

Proceedings , Paper 244

Conference Paper
The use of interest rate futures by commercial banks

Proceedings , Paper 85

Report
Price limits and volatility in soybean meal futures markets

Research Paper , Paper 8904

Working Paper
Implied volatility from options on gold futures: do statistical forecasts add value or simply paint the lilly?

Consistent with findings in other markets, implied volatility is a biased predictor of the realized volatility of gold futures. No existing explanation?including a price of volatility risk?can completely explain the bias, but much of this apparent bias can be explained by persistence and estimation error in implied volatility. Statistical criteria reject the hypothesis that implied volatility is informationally efficient with respect to econometric forecasts. But delta hedging exercises indicate that such econometric forecasts have no incremental economic value. Thus, statistical measures of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2003-018

Journal Article
Futures options and their use by financial intermediaries

Economic Perspectives , Volume 10 , Issue Jan , Pages 18-31

Working Paper
Hedging with mispriced futures

Working Papers , Paper 87-11

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Moser, James T. 15 items

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