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Monograph
The credit slowdown abroad
Journal Article
France sliding into recession as new government takes power
Journal Article
The sources of the growth slowdown
Journal Article
France will be ready for EMU, says French ambassador
Working Paper
Emigration during the French Revolution: Consequences in the Short and Longue Durée
During the French Revolution, more than 100,000 individuals, predominantly supporters of the Old Regime, fled France. As a result, some areas experienced a significant change in the composition of the local elites whereas in others the pre-revolutionary social structure remained virtually intact. In this study, we trace the consequences of the migrs flight on economic performance at the local level. We instrument emigration intensity with local temperature shocks during an inflection point of the Revolution, the summer of 1792, marked by the abolition of the constitutional monarchy and bouts ...
Working Paper
Government equity and money: John Law’s system in 1720 France
John Law?s System was a radical restructuring of French public finances, carried out from 1716 to 1720. It involved on the one hand a conversion of the existing French public debt into something like government equity, on the other hand the replacement of commodity money with fiat money. For strategic reasons, Law supported the equity at too high a level, resulting in uncontrolled money creation. The System ended with the recreation of a public debt at, surprisingly, the same level as before.
Working Paper
Multivariate Markov switching with weighted regime determination: giving France more weight than Finland
This article deals with using panel data to infer regime changes that are common to all of the cross section. The methods presented here apply to Markov switching vector autoregressions, dynamic factor models with Markov switching and other multivariate Markov switching models. The key feature we seek to add to these models is to permit cross-sectional units to have different weights in the calculation of regime probabilities. We apply our approach to estimating a business cycle chronology for the 50 U.S. States and the Euro area, and we compare results between country-specific weights and ...