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Working Paper
Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts
Wright, Jonathan H.
(2003)
Exchange rate forecasting is hard and the seminal result of Meese and Rogoff (1983) that the exchange rate is well approximated by a driftless random walk, at least for prediction purposes, has never really been overturned despite much effort at constructing other forecasting models. However, in several other macro and financial forecasting applications, researchers in recent years have considered methods for forecasting that combine the information in a large number of time series. One method that has been found to be remarkably useful for out-of-sample prediction is simple averaging of the ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 779
Working Paper
On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility
Tenreyro, Silvana
(2003)
What is the effect of nominal exchange rate variability on trade? I argue that the methods conventionally used to answer this perennial question are plagued by a variety of sources of systematic bias. I propose a novel approach that simultaneously addresses all of these biases, and present new estimates from a broad sample of countries from 1970 to 1997. The answer to the question is: Not much.
Working Papers
, Paper 03-2
Report
How valuable is exchange rate flexibility? Optimal monetary policy under sectoral shocks
Tille, Cedric
(2002)
The paper explores the optimal monetary policy reaction to productivity shocks in an open economy. Whereas earlier studies assume that countries specialize in producing particular goods, I enrich the analysis by allowing for incomplete specialization. I confirm the finding of Obstfeld and Rogoff (2000)--who build on Friedman (1953)--that a flexible exchange rate is highly valuable in delivering the optimal response to country- specific shocks. Its value is, however, much smaller when shocks are sector-specific, because exchange rate fluctuations then lead to misallocations between different ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 147
Working Paper
Exchange rates and discount rate changes
Pearce, Douglas K.; Hakkio, Craig S.
(1986)
Research Working Paper
, Paper 86-06
Working Paper
Monetary policy and the determination of the interest rate and exchange rate in a small open economy with increasing capital mobility
Ahn, Byung Chan
(1994)
This paper presents a general model of the determination of the interest rate and the exchange rate which is relevant for a small economy with any degree of capital mobility. The model is tested by using the quarterly data of Korea and Singapore. The emperical results show that in the Korean case changes in money supply affect the interest rate, but do not affect the exchange rate, while in the case of Singapore the domestic interest rate is determined by the foreign interest rate and the expected change in the exchange rate, as well as by changes in the money supply; changes in the money ...
Working Papers
, Paper 1994-024
Report
Managing exchange rates: the experience of the European monetary system
Klitgaard, Thomas
(1988)
Research Paper
, Paper 8814
Conference Paper
Managing capital flows and exchange rates, perspectives from the Pacific Basin. Essays originally prepared for a conference sponsored by the Center for Pacific Basin Monetary and Economic Studies at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, held Sept. 26-27, 1996
Glick, Reuven
(1996)
Proceedings
Journal Article
Exchange rates and monetary policy
Glick, Reuven; Hutchison, Michael M.
(1989-04)
Economic Review
, Issue Spr
, Pages 17-29
Working Paper
The dynamic interaction of order flows and the CAD/USD exchange rate
Gradojevic, Nikola; Neely, Christopher J.
(2008)
We explore the relationship between disaggregated order flow, the Canada/U.S. dollar (CAD/USD) market and U.S. macroeconomic announcements. Three types of CAD order flow and the CAD/USD are cointegrated. Financial order flow appears to contemporaneously drive the CAD/USD while commercial order flow seems to contemporaneously respond to exchange rate movements. Past order flow and lagged exchange rates strongly explain most types of order flow. Despite this predictability and the contemporaneous correlation of order flow with exchange rate returns, exchange rate returns are not predictable by ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2008-006
Report
Uncertainty, exchange rate regimes, and national price levels
Broda, Christian
(2002-08-01)
Large differences in national price levels exist across countries. In this paper, I develop a general equilibrium model predicting that these differences should be related to countries? exchange rate regimes. My empirical findings confirm that countries with fixed exchange rate regimes have higher national price levels than countries with flexible regimes. At the disaggregate level, the relationship between exchange rate regimes and national price levels is stronger for nontraded goods than for traded goods. I also find that measuring the misalignment in national price levels around times of ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 151
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Power resources - Prices 1 items
Price indexes 1 items
Price levels 1 items
Pricing 1 items
Rate of return 1 items
Statistics 1 items
Stochastic analysis 1 items
Stock exchanges 1 items
Swaps (Finance) 1 items
Switzerland 1 items
Technology 1 items
Treaty on European Union (1992) 1 items
Turkey 1 items
Volcker, Paul A. 1 items
Wholesale price indexes 1 items
Won, Korean 1 items
equilibrium 1 items
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