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Keywords:Foreign exchange rates 

Journal Article
The dollar and US manufacturing

U.S. manufacturing industries are becoming increasingly sensitive to changes in the international value of the dollar. A look at recent studies of exchange rate effects on industry performance suggests that the 1997-98 rise in the dollar may significantly reduce U.S. producers' profits and compel firms to scale back their investment in new plants and equipment.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 4 , Issue Dec

Journal Article
Have U.S. import prices become less responsive to changes in the dollar?

The failure of the dollar's depreciation to narrow the U.S. trade deficit has driven recent research showing that the transmission of exchange rate changes to import prices has declined sharply in industrial countries. Estimates presented in this study, however, suggest that "pass-through" to U.S. import prices has fallen only modestly, if at all, in the last decade. The authors argue that methodological changes in the collection of import data and the inclusion of commodity prices in pass-through models may have contributed to earlier findings of low pass-through rates.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 12 , Issue Sep

Journal Article
Do industrialized countries hold the right foreign exchange reserves?

That central banks should hold foreign currency reserves is a key tenet of the post-Bretton Woods international financial order. But recent growth in the reserve balances of industrialized countries raises questions about what level and composition of reserves are ?right? for these countries. A look at the rationale for reserves and the reserve practices of select countries suggests that large balances may not be needed to maintain an effective exchange rate policy over the medium and long term. Moreover, countries may incur an opportunity cost by holding funds in currency and asset ...
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 19 , Issue April

Journal Article
Support for resistance: technical analysis and intraday exchange rates

?Support? and ?resistance? levels?points at which an exchange rate trend may be interrupted and reversed?are widely used for short-term exchange rate forecasting. Nevertheless, the levels? ability to predict intraday trend interruptions has never been rigorously evaluated. This article undertakes such an analysis, using support and resistance levels provided to customers by six firms active in the foreign exchange market. The author offers strong evidence that the levels help to predict intraday trend interruptions. However, the levels? predictive power is found to vary across the exchange ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Jul , Pages 53-68

Journal Article
Exchange rate changes and net positions of speculators in the futures market

Traders, strategists, and other participants in the currency markets continuously seek to understand and interpret short-term exchange rate movements. One data set frequently used in those efforts is a weekly report of net futures market positions held by speculators on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. In this article, the authors pursue a transaction-oriented line of research to track short-term exchange rate moves. They examine the data set for six currencies over a ten-year period and document a strong contemporaneous relationship between weekly changes in speculators' net positions and ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue May , Pages 17-28

Journal Article
Industry-specific exchange rates for the United States

The trade-weighted exchange rates constructed for the aggregate U.S. economy do not always capture the changes in industry competitive conditions induced by movements in specific bilateral exchange rates. Exchange rates produced using information on industry-specific trade partners are often better suited for this task. This article constructs three industry-specific real exchange rate measures for the United States-one using export partner weights only, a second using import partner weights, and a third using an average of export and import weights by industry-and examines how they co-move ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue May , Pages 1-16

Journal Article
Exchange rates and competition for tourists

New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 57-67

Journal Article
Exchange rates and structural change in U.S. manufacturing employment

New England Economic Review , Issue Mar , Pages 56-70

Journal Article
The dollar, structural change and the New England miracle

New England Economic Review , Issue Sep , Pages 47-57

Journal Article
Exchange rate determination: sorting out theory and evidence

New England Economic Review , Issue Nov , Pages 39-52

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