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Working Paper
Is pegging the exchange rate a cure for inflation? East Asian experiences
A common argument for pegging the exchange rate is that it enforces discipline on domestic monetary policy, thus stabilizing inflation expectations. This paper argues that this reasoning does not necessarily apply to East Asia, as the nominal exchange rate pegging policies of these economies are not the explanation for their low inflation. On the contrary, since 1985, those economies whose currencies have appreciated less against the U.S. dollar have tended to experience higher inflation. Factors other than pegging, such as rapid growth, sustainable budget deficits, and relative openness ...
Conference Paper
Monetary policy, intervention, and exchange rates in Japan
Working Paper
The use of the parallel market rate as a guide to setting the official exchange rate
This paper addresses the merits of using the parallel exchange rate as a guide to setting the official exchange rate. Ideally, policymakers would set the exchange rate at the level that would balance trade and sustainable capital flows--that level is referred to as the equilibrium exchange rate. In practice, it is difficult to identify the equilibrium exchange rate, particularly in countries that have experienced macroeconomic volatility and/or structural change. In this context, where parallel markets for foreign exchange exist, it is natural to consider the parallel rate as a proxy for the ...
Working Paper
Intervention and the risk premium in foreign exchange rates
An analysis of how central-bank exchange-market intervention can affect both the level of exchange rates and the risk premium in asset returns, showing how the risk premium is related to the conditional variances of intervention and other exogenous processes.
Journal Article
Regional effects of the peso devaluation
Working Paper
Foreign currency operations: an annotated bibliography
This paper is an annotated bibliography of recent research on foreign exchange market intervention. Most of the paper is devoted to empirical studies of the effectiveness of intervention. ; The paper describes the analytical framework within which most of this research has been conducted. Researchers have identified two principal channels through which sterilized intervention has its effects: the portfolio balance channel and the expectations or signalling channel. The great bulk of formal statistical tests of the effectiveness of sterilized intervention operating through the portfolio ...
Working Paper
More on the differences between reported and actual U.S. central bank foreign exchange intervention
An analysis of the differential impacts of reported and actual U.S. foreign exchange intervention on the mean and conditional variance of the Deutschemark-to-dollar and yen-to-dollar exchange rates. For part of the sample period, the impact of intervention on the variance of the exchange rates is shown to depend on whether the intervention was reported.
Working Paper
Post-Louvre intervention: did target zones stabilize the dollar?
An investigation of whether the G-3 nations (Germany, Japan, and the U.S.) successfully maintained target zones following the G-7's February 1987 Louvre meeting. Using daily, official intervention data and simultaneous-equation techniques, the authors determine that the G-3 reacted in a manner consistent with maintaining target zones, but find scant evidence that the intervention successfully influenced subsequent exchange-rate movements.