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Working Paper
Is pegging the exchange rate a cure for inflation? East Asian experiences
Glick, Reuven; Hutchison, Michael M.
(1995)
A common argument for pegging the exchange rate is that it enforces discipline on domestic monetary policy, thus stabilizing inflation expectations. This paper argues that this reasoning does not necessarily apply to East Asia, as the nominal exchange rate pegging policies of these economies are not the explanation for their low inflation. On the contrary, since 1985, those economies whose currencies have appreciated less against the U.S. dollar have tended to experience higher inflation. Factors other than pegging, such as rapid growth, sustainable budget deficits, and relative openness ...
Pacific Basin Working Paper Series
, Paper 95-08
Working Paper
Convertibility risk, default risk, and the Mexdollar anomaly
Rogers, John H.
(1995)
Rogers (l992a,b) I put forth the convertibility risk hypothesis in order to explain the anomalous n~gative relationship between the expected rate of Mexican peso depreciation and the ratio of Mexdollars to peso denominated demand deposits. Recently, Gruben and Welch (1994) examine the effect of deteriorating bank loan quality on the variables I consider. Using a cointegration framework, the authors find (i) a negative relationship between non-performing loans and the dollarization ratio and (ii) the conventional positive relationship between expected peso depreciation and dollarization. The ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 495
Conference Paper
The U.S. dollar: recent developments, outlook, and policy options (overview)
Wallich, Henry C.
(1985)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole
Journal Article
Is official foreign exchange intervention effective?
Hutchison, Michael M.
(2003)
FRBSF Economic Letter
Journal Article
Why intervention rarely works
Humpage, Owen F.; Osterberg, William P.
(2000-02)
Foreign-exchange-market intervention is generally ineffective when undertaken independent of monetary policy. But when undertaken as a goal of monetary policy, exchange-rate management can compromise price stability. This Economic Commentary explains the difficulties of implementing an intervention policy.
Economic Commentary
, Issue Feb
Working Paper
The mirage of fixed exchange rates
Obstfeld, Maurice; Rogoff, Kenneth S.
(1995)
This paper discusses the profound difficulties of maintaining fixed exchange rates in a world of expanding global capital markets. Contrary to popular wisdom, industrialized-country monetary authorities easily have the resources to defend exchange parities against virtually any private speculative attack. But if their commitment to use those resources lacks credibility with markets, the costs to the broader economy of defending an exchange-rate peg can be very high. The dynamic interplay between credibility and commitment is illustrated by the 1992 Swedish and British crises.
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
, Paper 95-08
Working Paper
Devaluation, exchange controls, and black markets for foreign exchange in developing countries
Kamin, Steven B.
(1988)
This paper considers how exchange controls, black markets, and forward-looking expectations condition the impact of exchange rate devaluations in developing countries. A model incorporating these features is developed to analyze the response of key external balance indicators to anticipated devaluations. The model is driven by the movements of black market exchange rates in perfect foresight equilibrium, which in turn force changes in export under-invoicing and official trade statistics. The predicted movements in all measurable variables, both before and after devaluation, closely mirror ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 334
Working Paper
Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?
Kaminsky, Graciela L.; Lewis, Karen K.
(1996)
A frequently cited explanation for why foreign exchange interventions affect the exchange rate is that these interventions signal future monetary policy intentions. This explanation says that central banks signal a more contractionary monetary policy in the future by buying domestic currency today. Therefore, the expectations of future tighter monetary policy make the domestic currency appreciate, even though the current monetary effects of the intervention are typically offset by central banks. Of course, this explanation presumes that central banks, in fact, back up interventions with ...
Working Papers
, Paper 96-7
Conference Paper
Monetary policy, intervention, and exchange rates in Japan
Glick, Reuven; Hutchison, Michael M.
(1992)
Proceedings
Working Paper
More on the differences between reported and actual U.S. central bank foreign exchange intervention
Osterberg, William P.; Humes, Rebecca Wetmore
(1995)
An analysis of the differential impacts of reported and actual U.S. foreign exchange intervention on the mean and conditional variance of the Deutschemark-to-dollar and yen-to-dollar exchange rates. For part of the sample period, the impact of intervention on the variance of the exchange rates is shown to depend on whether the intervention was reported.
Working Papers (Old Series)
, Paper 9501
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