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Keywords:Forecasting 

Working Paper
Rational and near-rational bubbles without drift

This paper derives a general class of intrinsic rational bubble solutions in a standard Lucas-type asset pricing model. I show that the rational bubble component of the price-dividend ratio can evolve as a geometric random walk without drift. The volatility of bubble innovations depends exclusively on fundamentals. Starting from an arbitrarily small positive value, the rational bubble expands and contracts over time in an irregular, wholly endogenous fashion, always returning to the vicinity of the fundamental solution. I also examine a near-rational solution in which the representative agent ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2007-10

Journal Article
How do forecasts respond to changes in monetary policy?

Laurence Ball and Dean Croushore look at forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to determine if forecasts and the economy respond in tandem or if there are significant differences.
Business Review , Issue Q4 , Pages 9-16

Working Paper
Forecast-based monetary policy

A number of central banks use (published or unpublished) forecasts of goal variables as key ingredients in their decisions for instrument settings. This use of forecasts is modelled as a particular form of objective with the minimization of which the central bank is charged. We use an estimated optimization-based model with staggered price and wage setting to analyze the welfare properties of such objectives and their implications for the form of instrument rules. We find that stabilizing expected price inflation at a horizon of two years around target dominates policies of stabilizing ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 99-10

Working Paper
Forecasting structural change with a regional econometric input-output model

The sophistication of regional economic models has been demonstrated in several ways, most recently in the form of linking several modeling systems or in the expansion in the number of equations that can be manipulated successfully to produce impact analyses or forecasts. In this paper, an alternative perspective is employed. What do regional macro-level forecasts indicate about the process of structural change? A new methodology is illustrated that enables analysts to make forecasts of detailed structural change in the interindustry relations in an economy. Using a regional ...
Working Paper Series, Regional Economic Issues , Paper WP-96-2

Journal Article
Predicting interest rates: a comparison of professional and market- based forecasts

Review , Issue Mar , Pages 9-15

Journal Article
A monetary analysis of the administration's budget and economic projections

Review , Volume 64 , Issue May , Pages 3-14

Journal Article
Real output and unit labor costs as predictors of inflation

Granger-causality tests used here find that: [1] unit labor costs add no predictive power to inflation forecasts; and [2] the gap between actual and potential output does help predict inflation, but only in the short run.
Economic Review , Volume 76 , Issue Jul , Pages 31-39

Journal Article
Expectations, money, and the forecasting of inflation

Economic Review , Issue Spr , Pages 30-49

Working Paper
Forecast Combination for Euro Area Inflation - A Cure in Times of Crisis?

The period of extraordinary volatility in euro area headline inflation starting in 2007 raised the question whether forecast combination methods can be used to hedge against bad forecast performance of single models during such periods and provide more robust forecasts. We investigate this issue for forecasts from a range of short-term forecasting models. Our analysis shows that there is considerable variation of the relative performance of the different models over time. To take that into account we suggest employing performance-based forecast combination methods, in particular one with more ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-104

Journal Article
Financial markets in 2020

Advances in communications and information management, combined with new developments in financial theory, will radically alter the way that financial services are delivered in the next century. This is the view of Charles Sanford, Chairman of Bankers Trust, as expressed in his luncheon address at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's 1993 symposium on "Changing Capital Markets: Implications for Monetary Policy."> According to Sanford, the basic financial functions will still be present, but traditional financial products, such as loans, borrowings, and securities, will be replaced ...
Economic Review , Volume 79 , Issue Q I , Pages 19-28

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