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Journal Article
Man vs. model? The role of judgment in forecasting

This article presents evidence on the role that judgmental adjustments play in macroeconomic forecast accuracy. It starts by contrasting the predictive records of four prominent forecasters who adjust their models with those of three models that are used mechanically. The adjusted forecasts tend to be more accurate overall, although important exceptions can be found. Next the article compares adjusted forecasts with those generated mechanically by the same models. Again, with some significant exceptions, judgmental adjustments improve accuracy more often than not. ; The article closes by ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 41-52

Journal Article
On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads

Economists have long understood that financial market variables contain considerable information about the future of the economy. Recently a number of researchers have pointed out that interest rates and interest rate spreads--that is, differences between interest rates on alternative financial assets--can be effective predictors of the economy. ; This finding raises a number of questions, possibly the most important being why interest rates and spreads predict the course of the economy so well. The authors tentative conclusion is that the spread between commercial paper and Treasury bill ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Nov , Pages 51-68

Journal Article
Forecasting cyclical turning points: the record in the past three recessions

New England Economic Review , Issue Mar , Pages 31-40

Journal Article
Forecasting changes in inflation using the Treasury bill futures market

New England Economic Review , Issue Mar , Pages 41-48

Journal Article
Consensus forecasts: tyranny of the majority?

New England Economic Review , Issue Nov , Pages 15-21

Journal Article
The accuracy of two forecasting techniques: some evidence and an interpretation

New England Economic Review , Issue Mar , Pages 20-31

Journal Article
How large are economic forecast errors?

Opinion about the reliability of economic forecasts ranges widely. Some argue that they are literally worthless, at the same time that most forecasters can point to a sequence of near perfect predictions. How much confidence should one place in economic forecasts? The errors vary with many factors. ; A crucial determinant of the size of forecast errors is the forecast period; some periods are very difficult to predict while others are relatively easy. By far the largest errors were the sustained underestimations of the acceleration of inflation in 1973-75 and again in 1978-80. In addition, ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 25-42

Journal Article
Do municipal bond yields forecast tax policy?

During the recent flat tax debate, interest rates on long-term municipal bonds rose relative to the rate on U.S. Treasury bonds. This was widely attributed to expectations of a reduction in future tax rates. While an axiom of finance states that current asset prices reflect expectations about future events, there is no consensus on how sensitive municipal bond yields are to expectations about future tax rates. This study assesses that question by examining the relationship between the implicit tax rate and actual future tax rates.> Efficient markets theory predicts that the implicit tax ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Sep , Pages 29-48

Journal Article
Assessment of the \\"official\\" economic forecasts

While many studies have evaluated the accuracy of "official" economic forecasts, this study may be the first published analysis of the Federal Open Market Committee's "Humphrey- Hawkins" forecasts. In this article, the "official" forecasts generated by the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are analyzed and compared to each other as well as to forecasts made by the private sector. The findings for the one-year-ahead forecasts reconfirm that the CEA, CBO, and private sector forecasts are about ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 13-23

Journal Article
Diversity, uncertainty, and accuracy of inflation forecasts

Uncertainty is a key concept in both economic theory and economic practice. Yet, economic forecasts are usually stated as single numbers, or "point estimates," that convey no information about the full array of possible outcomes. The dispersion of individual forecasters' point estimates is often used as an approximation of forecast uncertainty, even though it is neither logically nor empirically related. In fact, the diversity of point estimates is a poor guide to the accuracy of a point estimate forecast. ; This article examines explicit estimates of forecast uncertainty, taken from the ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 33-44



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