Search Results

Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 532.

(refine search)
SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT
Keywords:Forecasting 

Journal Article
Predicting the money stock: a comparison of alternative approaches

Economic Review , Issue Spr , Pages 38-54

Working Paper
Macroeconomic volatility, predictability and uncertainty in the Great Moderation: evidence from the survey of professional forecasters

An emerging and influential literature finds a large and significant decline in macroeconomic volatility since the middle of the 1980's. In this paper, I examine the extent to which the decline in annual and quarterly real output volatility since the onset of this period of Great Moderation can be attributed to changes in macroeconomic uncertainty and macroeconomic predictability. I use point forecasts of future real output growth from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) between 1969 and 2003 as a proxy for the predictable component of real output growth. The results indicate that ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2004-52

Journal Article
Revisions in the \"flash\" estimates of GNP growth: measurement error or forecast error?

Economic Review , Issue Fall , Pages 5-13

Working Paper
Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors : The Federal Reserve's Approach

Since November 2007, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve has regularly published participants? qualitative assessments of the uncertainty attending their individual forecasts of real activity and inflation, expressed relative to that seen on average in the past. The benchmarks used for these historical comparisons are the average root mean squared forecast errors (RMSEs) made by various private and government forecasters over the past twenty years. This paper documents how these benchmarks are constructed and discusses some of their properties. We draw several ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-020

Journal Article
FOMC forecast: is all the information in the central tendency?

Federal Reserve policymakers began reporting their economic forecasts to Congress in 1979. These forecasts are important because they indicate what the Federal Open Market Committee members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. The Fed reports both the range (high and low) of the individual policymaker?s forecasts and a truncated central tendency. The central tendency range omits outliers from both the top and the bottom of the full range. The author finds, generally, that the forecasts derived from the full range are at least as good as those derived from the central ...
Review , Volume 85 , Issue May , Pages 27-46

Journal Article
Investment analysts' forecasts of earnings

The literature on investment analysts' forecasts of firms' earnings and their forecast errors is enormous. This paper summarizes the evidence on the distribution of analysts' forecasts and forecast errors using data for all U.S. firms from 1990 to 2004. The evidence indicates substantial asymmetry of earnings, earning forecasts, and forecast errors. There is strong support for average and median earning forecasts being higher than actual earnings a year before the earnings announcement. Such differences between earnings and forecasts also exist across time periods and industries. A month ...
Review , Volume 91 , Issue Sep , Pages 545-568

Report
The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity

Research Paper , Paper 8907

Journal Article
Comparing economic forecasts

Financial Update , Volume 16 , Issue Q 3

Journal Article
Forecasting the Texas economy: applications and evaluation of a systematic multivariate time series model

Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Jan , Pages 11-28

Discussion Paper
Forecasting the end of the global recession: did we miss the early signs?

This paper looks at the term-structure literature to identify early signs predicting recessionary patterns in the U.S. and other developed economies. Based on the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) recession dates, we define the probability of recession as a function of the traditional yield spread, plus a forward-looking measure of growth expectations, namely the output gap growth spread. For other countries, we extend the model and make it additionally dependent on the probability of recession in the U.S. Our results indicate that most ...
Staff Papers , Issue Apr

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Series

Working Papers 72 items

Economic Review 54 items

Finance and Economics Discussion Series 39 items

FRB Atlanta Working Paper 25 items

Review 25 items

FRBSF Economic Letter 24 items

show more (49)

FILTER BY Content Type

Journal Article 225 items

Working Paper 221 items

Report 40 items

Discussion Paper 24 items

Conference Paper 11 items

Speech 8 items

show more (2)

FILTER BY Author

Clark, Todd E. 20 items

Diebold, Francis X. 17 items

McCracken, Michael W. 15 items

Croushore, Dean 13 items

Robertson, John C. 12 items

Neely, Christopher J. 11 items

show more (481)

FILTER BY Jel Classification

C53 22 items

C32 8 items

E17 6 items

C11 5 items

C52 5 items

C55 5 items

show more (50)

FILTER BY Keywords

Forecasting 532 items

Econometric models 54 items

Inflation (Finance) 54 items

Monetary policy 51 items

Economic indicators 31 items

Interest rates 27 items

show more (268)

PREVIOUS / NEXT