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Discussion Paper
Forecasting the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Fifth District

How many COVID-19 cases will there be in the coming days and months? While the Fifth District appears to be past the peak number of daily cases, a wide range of future outcomes is still possible.
Regional Matters

Journal Article
Does it pay to be transparent? international evidence form central bank forecasts

Review , Volume 84 , Issue Jul , Pages 99-118

Journal Article
Regime-dependent recession forecasts and the 2001 recession

Business recessions are notoriously hard to predict accurately, hence the quip that economists have predicted eight of the last five recessions. This article derives a six-month-ahead recession signal that reduces the number of false signals outside of recession, without impairing the ability to signal the recessions that occur. In terms of predicting the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions out of sample, the new recession signal, like other signals, largely misses the 1990-91 recession with its six-month-ahead forecasts. In contrast, a recession onset in April or May 2001 was predicted six months ...
Review , Volume 84 , Issue Nov , Pages 29-36

Journal Article
The unreliability of inflation indicators

Analysts seeking evidence of rising inflation often focus on the movements of a single indicator_an increase in the price of gold, for example, or a decline in the unemployment rate. But simple statistical tests reveal that such indicators, used in isolation, have very limited predictive power.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 6 , Issue Apr

Journal Article
A monetary analysis of the administration's budget and economic projections

Review , Volume 64 , Issue May , Pages 3-14

Journal Article
U.S. economic forecasts calls for slightly slower growth

Southwest Economy , Issue Dec , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Forecasting Current-Quarter U.S.Exports Using Satellite Data

Forecasting export growth can be challenging. Export growth depends heavily on demand from foreign countries, which is difficult to directly measure. In practice, forecasters usually use growth in foreign gross domestic product. But GDP data are released with a significant delay, and in some economies, GDP is poorly measured. Nighttime lights data from satellites are able to overcome both of these challenges, making them potentially useful in forecasting U.S. exports. {{p}} Jun Nie and Amy Oksol use nighttime lights data to forecast current-quarter U.S. export growth and compare their ...
Economic Review , Issue Q II , Pages 5-24

1994 economic outlook: hopes become beliefs

Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Feb

Journal Article
Predicting when the economy will turn

FRBSF Economic Letter



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Clark, Todd E. 20 items

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