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Keywords:Fiscal policy 

Journal Article
How little we know about deficit policy effects

We use a simple model to show why previous empirical studies of budget policy effects are flawed. Due to an identification problem, those studies' findings can be shown to be consistent with policies either mattering or not. We argue that this problem is difficult and not likely to be resolved soon.
Quarterly Review , Volume 16 , Issue Win , Pages 2-11

Speech
The recovery and monetary policy

Remarks at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting, New York City.
Speech , Paper 89

Journal Article
Economist advocates holistic view of monetary and fiscal effects

Economics Update , Issue Oct , Pages 2

Working Paper
Tax structure, welfare, and the stability of equilibrium in a model of dynamic optimal fiscal policy

A demonstration that the assumed structure of taxation can have dramatic effects on economic welfare and on the stability of the steady state in a dynamic general-equilibrium model of optimal fiscal policy. The authors find that household welfare is highest under a structure that includes separate tax rates on labor and capital incomes, double taxation of dividends, and tax-deductible depreciation.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 9410

Conference Paper
Seigniorage as a tax: a quantitative evaluation

Proceedings

Working Paper
A critical analysis of the Eisner-Pieper fiscal measure

Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section , Paper 117

Working Paper
Optimal fiscal and monetary policy: equivalence results

In this paper, we analyze the implications of price setting restrictions for the conduct of cyclical fiscal and monetary policy. We consider an environment with monopolistic competitive firms, a shopping time technology, prices set one period in advance, and government expenditures that must be financed with distortionary taxes. We show that the sets of (frontier) implementable allocations are the same independently of the degree of price stickiness. Furthermore, the sets of policies that decentralize each allocation are also the same except in the extreme cases of flexible and sticky prices, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-02-16

Working Paper
The Macroeconomic Effects of Trade Policy

We study the short-run macroeconomic effects of trade policies that are equivalent in a friction-less economy, namely a uniform increase in import tariffs and export subsidies (IX), an increase in value-added taxes accompanied by a payroll tax reduction (VP), and a border adjustment of corporate pro.t taxes (BAT). Using a dynamic New Keynesian open-economy framework, we summarize conditions for exact neutrality and equivalence of these policies. Neutrality requires the real exchange rate to appreciate enough to fully offset the effects of the policies on net exports. We argue that a ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1242

Working Paper
Using stock returns to identify government spending shocks

This paper explores a new approach to identifying government spending shocks which avoids many of the shortcomings of existing approaches. The new approach is to identify government spending shocks with statistical innovations to the accumulated excess returns of large US military contractors. This strategy is used to estimate the dynamic responses of output, hours, consumption and real wages to a government spending shock. We find that positive government spending shocks are associated with increases in output, hours, and consumption. Real wages initially decline after a government spending ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-09-03

Working Paper
Fiscal policy and trade adjustment: are the deficits really twins?

FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 91-2

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