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Keywords:Fiscal policy 

Working Paper
Nothing is Certain Except Death and Taxes : The Lack of Policy Uncertainty from Expiring \"Temporary\" Taxes

What is the policy uncertainty surrounding expiring taxes? How uncertain are the approvals of routine extensions of temporary tax policies? To answer these questions, I use event studies to measure cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) for firms that claimed the U.S. research and development (R&D) tax credit from 1996-2015. In 1996, the U.S. R&D tax credit was statutorily temporary but was routinely extended ten times until 2015, when it was made permanent. I take the event dates as both when these ten extensions of the R&D tax credit were introduced into committee and when the extensions were ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-041

Working Paper
Nominal debt as a burden on monetary policy

We study the effects of nominal debt on the optimal sequential choice of monetary and debt policy. When the stock of debt is nominal, the incentive to generate unanticipated inflation increases the cost of the outstanding debt even if no unanticipated inflation episodes occur in equilibrium. Without full commitment, the optimal sequential policy is to deplete the outstanding stock of debt progressively until these extra costs disappear. Nominal debt is therefore a burden on monetary policy, not only because it must be serviced, but also because it creates a time inconsistency problem that ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-04-10

Speech
Churchill, Baruch, Lindsay Lohan, Congress and the Fed

Remarks at the Institute of International Bankers Annual Washington Conference, Washington, D.C., March 7, 2011 ; "I argued against the $600 billion extension [buying U.S. Treasuries] the voters on the FOMC approved last November. And I remain doubtful enough as to its efficacy that if at any time between now and June, it should prove demonstrably counterproductive, I will vote to curtail or perhaps discontinue it."
Speeches and Essays , Paper 87

Briefing
Recent fiscal policy and the manipulation of aggregate economic activity

It is widely believed that public sector spending and investment can restore aggregate economic activity to efficient levels. But some policy responses are likely to be more successful than others. In particular, directly targeting frictions in capital, labor, and insurance markets arguably provides the best chances of improving welfare.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue Aug

Working Paper
The welfare effects of pay-as-you-go retirement programs: the role of tax and benefit timing

It is well known that pay-as-you-go retirement programs reduce steady-state welfare and the capital stock in dynamically efficient OLG economies. The common two-period OLG model obscures, however, the dependence of these effects on the ages at which taxes are paid and benefits are received. Program changes that shift taxes to older workers or benefits to younger retirees have effects similar to reductions in program size, yielding steady-state welfare gains and increases in capital accumulation while imposing transition costs on current generations. This analysis has policy implications for ...
Working Papers , Paper 0602

Journal Article
The burden of Reagan debt

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
The expected federal budget surplus: how much confidence should the public and policymakers place in the projections?

When the government runs a deficit, it can borrow from the public?that is, it can create debt. Conversely, when the government runs a surplus, it can retire that debt. For the past three years, the federal government has recorded budget surpluses, and both the White House Office of Management and Budget and the Congressional Budget Office project that these surpluses will increase for at least the next decade. If these projections prove to be accurate, the $3.5 trillion of publicly held federal debt could be eliminated by around 2010. This article, which was written prior to the updated ...
Review , Volume 83 , Issue Mar , Pages 11-24

Conference Paper
Commentary: activist fiscal policy to stabilize economic activity

Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Conference Paper
Opening remarks : rethinking stabilization policy

Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

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Fiscal policy 530 items

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