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Global Spillovers of a China Hard Landing
China?s economy has become larger and more interconnected with the rest of the world, thus raising the possibility that acute financial stress in China may lead to global financial instability. This paper analyzes the potential spillovers of such an event to the rest of the world with three methodologies: a VAR, an event study, and a DSGE model. We find the sentiment channel to be the primary spillover channel to the United States, affecting global risk aversion and asset prices such as equity prices and the dollar, in addition to modest real effects through the trade channel. In comparison, ...
Perspectives on the Economic Outlook and Banking Supervision and Regulation; 2017-08-02; The Community Bankers Association of Ohio Annual Convention, Cincinnati, OH
Today, I enjoy the fruits of the strong relationship that has developed between Ohio bankers and the Cleveland Fed. The bankers who serve on our Community Depository Institutions Advisory Council (CDIAC) and on our board of directors generously provide me with their valuable insights into regional economic and banking conditions. As you all know, community banks play a vital role in the economic health of their communities, providing creditworthy businesses the wherewithal to prosper and households the ability to improve their financial standing and quality of life. Because of their important ...